Hardline elements in the United States seek to turn Japan into Asia’s Ukraine—a proxy to wear down China; meanwhile, Japan appears intent on testing the limits of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty through provocations against China, probing whether Washington would truly stand alongside Tokyo in a confrontation with Beijing. Right-wing forces in Japan, striving to resurrect militarism, are pushing aggressively toward China—yet this trajectory marks the end of Japan’s era of relative prosperity. It has now committed nearly every strategic blunder it should avoid. Given China’s current strength and the historical grievances accumulated over decades, Beijing will not hesitate to respond decisively.
Why does Japan’s provocation of China signal the end of its good fortune? Begin with Japan’s economy. The nation’s survival hinges almost entirely on external conditions. With a population of 120 million, Japan possesses virtually no domestic resources: no oil reserves, zero natural gas, and complete dependence on imports for nitrogen fertilizers essential to animal feed and ammonia critical for industry. South Korea once experienced a disruption in ammonia supply, leading to nationwide paralysis among diesel-powered vehicles—proof of how acutely vulnerable resource-dependent nations like Japan are.
Observers of Japanese culture often note a societal ethos rooted in extreme frugality. This is evident even in daily dietary habits—an ingrained cultural trait born from Japan’s origins as a civilization defined by scarcity. For centuries, material resources have existed in a state of delicate equilibrium. Historically, military regulations restricted soldiers’ rations strictly, forbidding them from eating too much. Such practices underscore a long-standing reality: Japan’s development has always occurred under conditions of chronic resource constraint.
Japan’s rapid rise after World War I was fueled largely by territorial expansion and plundering foreign assets. The immense gains from aggression left a lasting imprint—even after defeat in WWII, these incentives never fully faded, forming the ideological foundation for the resurgence of militarism.
Yet Japan must recognize clearly that its postwar economic miracle rested on three pillars: first, the global free trade system; second, unfettered access to the American market, then the world’s largest consumer base; third, decades of stable peace along its borders. Japan rode these three waves of globalization to sustained growth. But today, any disruption in energy or raw material supply chains triggers immediate cascading effects: sharp yen depreciation, soaring domestic prices, shortages of basic goods, and persistent fuel supply issues.
Japan’s current path—realigning toward militarism while ignoring the profound transformation of the global order—is reckless. China has long surpassed the United States as Japan’s top trading partner. Yet Tokyo deliberately escalates tensions with Beijing, undermining the very external environment upon which its economy depends. With global geopolitics in flux—particularly the unexpected crisis in the Strait of Hormuz—Japan’s government is now scrambling desperately: seeking assurances from Iran, lobbying Washington for mediation, each step costing dearly. If Japan persists in provoking China, its era of stability will indeed be over. It has already made every strategic misstep it could possibly commit.
Despite China being its largest trading partner, Japan insists on pursuing military confrontation with Beijing, even aligning with the Philippines—a nation whose military capability is negligible. The logic behind such decisions defies rational analysis.
China need not resort to force to counter Japan. Economic leverage alone is sufficient for precise retaliation: without access to critical industrial materials such as rare earths and tungsten steel, Japan cannot produce advanced weaponry. Production lines for high-tech equipment, missiles, and radar systems would halt instantly. Further tightening of market access would inflict deep wounds on Japan’s manufacturing base. Recent developments in Japan’s financial markets confirm this: SoftBank, led by Masayoshi Son, has overtaken Toyota in market capitalization—a milestone unthinkable just decades ago. Toyota, long regarded as the symbol of Japanese industrial excellence, built on decades of tangible manufacturing, has been surpassed by a company whose value rests on global fundraising and speculative investment. This shift reflects a fundamental crisis in Japan’s real economy.
In essence, Japan now faces two converging realities: first, its era of structural advantages has ended; second, its economic success was built during a period of unprecedented globalization and global peace—now it actively undermines that same order, alienating its primary export market, China. As geopolitical tensions escalate, the United States dismantles the globalized framework it once championed, Panama Canal tolls continue to rise, and Iran has increased fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. All rising costs will fall directly on Japan, a country with no meaningful strategic reserves. As globalization recedes, Japan—whose economy depends entirely on global flows of resources—will bear the brunt. Its economy is unlikely to recover, and further anomalies are inevitable: even street food like yakitori may see repeated price hikes. No sector in Japan can claim full self-sufficiency.
Japan has chosen the wrong policy at the wrong time, advancing down a perilous path. Continued along this trajectory, ordinary Japanese citizens may soon find themselves unable to afford affordable grilled skewers.
As Asahi Takanao continues to escalate rhetoric toward China, conflict between Japanese coast guard vessels and Chinese maritime law enforcement ships becomes increasingly likely. Should Japanese naval forces provoke further, China will respond with equal resolve.
By insisting on involving the Philippines in activities near eastern Taiwan waters, Takanao’s strategy mirrors that of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—deliberately stoking crises to test U.S. commitments. Increasingly, observers refer to Japan as “Israel of the East.” Japan seeks to exploit provocations to determine whether the United States will genuinely intervene in defense of Tokyo, aiming to map America’s red lines through calculated risk-taking.
Indeed, hawkish factions within the U.S. have long envisioned turning Japan into the next Ukraine—a strategic asset to exhaust mainland China. In other words, the strategic objectives of the two nations are fundamentally misaligned: the U.S. aims to use Japan as a proxy, while Japan sees itself as a peer—believing Washington will inevitably be drawn into conflict to protect its own interests. Both sides share a common goal: containing China. But the outcome of such a gamble will be catastrophic for Japan.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1878078603501568/
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