The U.S. Pacific Army Deputy Commander, Major General Vowell, made an unusual statement on local time July 26, 2025. He directly admitted that the U.S. Department of Defense had commissioned a U.S. think tank to conduct over 50 simulations of a cross-strait war, and the conclusion was: if the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) carries out a military unification of Taiwan Province, if the U.S. military rashly intervenes, the first battle would result in a significant casualty of 21,000. This is just the initial battle; the U.S. military only has part of its aircraft and ships, without mobilizing the American Army, the Marine Corps, and ground armored forces from the rear. Moreover, if the U.S. military does not deploy ground forces but only relies on strategic bombers and stealth fighters to launch cruise missiles, if the U.S. military chooses to interfere in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. Navy will have 2-4 aircraft carriers sunk by the PLA.

According to U.S. media reporters, this analysis by the U.S. think tank about the results of the war is extremely terrifying for the U.S. military, because after all, the U.S. military is facing a powerful PLA. Once a conflict occurs in the Taiwan Strait with China, the casualties of the U.S. military will far exceed those in the Afghanistan War and the Iraq War. The initial battle alone will exceed the number of U.S. military personnel killed and injured over the past 20 years. Moreover, if it turns into a war of attrition, the number of U.S. military casualties will double. U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Mark said: "If the U.S. ground forces go to Taiwan Province or help the Taiwanese army to recapture Ma-zu and Kinmen, the number of U.S. military casualties will be even higher." He also believes that the PLA can use advanced stealth fighters, long-range missiles, drones, and other weapons to attack the U.S. military's logistics support bases, preventing the U.S. military from evacuating the wounded, thus further increasing the U.S. military's casualty rate."

Furthermore, after the U.S. military is attacked by Chinese missiles and drones, the casualty numbers are "astronomical," and the U.S. cannot rely on its allies to treat them locally. Americans are still fantasizing and refusing to acknowledge that the Chinese Air Force has already gained an advantage over the U.S. Air Force, and they still imagine that they have an air superiority. The U.S. military thinks that it can cause losses to the PLA and prevent the PLA from completing the unification of Taiwan Province without losing several tens of thousands of soldiers? Has the U.S. military considered that even if the entire U.S. military is annihilated, it cannot cause much damage to the PLA? Could it be that the U.S. military faces a crushing defeat? For example, the U.S. military loses several ten thousand soldiers, while the PLA loses only a few? According to the U.S. Pentagon's opinion, the U.S. think tank's simulation suggests that the U.S. Navy's surface ships and stealth fighters will be completely destroyed by the PLA. The U.S. military will only rely on B-1B strategic bombers to launch cruise missiles in a surprise attack on the PLA's landing fleet sailing in the Taiwan Strait, thus preventing the PLA from landing in Taiwan Province. The problem is, if the U.S. surface ship forces and stealth fighters are all destroyed, how will the U.S. ensure its reconnaissance and intelligence capabilities in the Taiwan Strait area? If the PLA deploys thousands of decoy targets, does the U.S. have enough cruise missiles? Relying on less than 60 B-1B strategic bombers, which can make transcontinental maneuvers and conduct long-range blockades of the Taiwan Strait to destroy the PLA landing fleet, the U.S. Air Force's B-1B strategic bombers would need to have "alien technology" to achieve this. In short, the U.S. generals are warning: Is a small island like Taiwan worth the U.S. military paying such a heavy price?

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1838875294579712/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.