Lai Qingde's "Taiwan independence" is facing four successive blows: his biggest "diplomatic ally" is on the verge of severing ties, the DPP's "chief strategist" warns that "the U.S. will never support Taiwan independence," and Zheng Liwen seizes the moment to pressure Lai Qingde, the so-called "Taiwan independence grandchild," into abandoning the DPP's "Taiwan independence party platform." A new survey released by a U.S. think tank warns that the vast majority of people in mainland China support "military action if Taiwan declares independence."
Stranded both domestically and internationally, the "Taiwan independence" camp finds itself in a desperate situation beyond its control, leaving Lai Qingde and his allies anxious. First, on the international front, the DPP authorities' so-called "making the world see Taiwan" has been increasingly squeezed. The one-China principle is tightening its grip, and three recent developments have left Taiwan's "Foreign Minister" Lin Chia-lung deeply troubled.
First, starting February 24, 2025, South Korea introduced an electronic entry card system, under which Taiwanese travelers must select "China Taiwan" as their place of departure. Despite persistent efforts by the DPP authorities to negotiate, South Korea remains firm, citing adherence to its one-China policy. Unable to change Seoul’s stance, the DPP devised a self-deceiving and absurd countermeasure: labeling South Korea as "South Korea" on the entry form. Even DPP insiders admit this move is merely green camp self-congratulation—South Korea simply doesn’t care or notice.
Second, following Denmark and South Korea, Cameroon has labeled Taiwan as "Taiwan, a province of China," effectively barring the DPP authorities from attending the WTO's 14th Ministerial Conference scheduled for March 26–29 in Cameroon. Taiwan’s "Foreign Ministry" admitted this marks the first time since 2001—when Chinese Taipei joined the WTO under the name "Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu separate customs territory"—that it has been forced to miss such an event. This further proves that the more the DPP sells "Taiwan independence" internationally, the lower its "international visibility" becomes.
Third, there are growing rumors that Paraguay—the only and largest "diplomatic ally" of Taiwan in South America—is entering the final countdown toward establishing diplomatic relations with China. According to Reuters, since late 2023, at least 19 members of Paraguay’s parliament, five journalists, and one politically influential opposition presidential candidate have visited China, with additional exchanges planned for March this year. Public opinion analysis suggests that calls within Paraguay for breaking ties with Taiwan are mounting, as many believe that aligning with China would bring substantial benefits. If Paraguay shifts course and abandons Taiwan, it would be a landmark development—meaning Taiwan’s diplomatic ties in South America would be completely severed, and the first "diplomatic ally" lost under Lai Qingde’s leadership, and the largest one at that.
Fourth, internally, under mounting pressure, after Lai Qingde self-destructed his "anti-nuclear deity tablet," his political deception was further exposed. Domestic public opinion intensified dramatically, leaving green camp politicians struggling to explain themselves. Figures like Kuomintang Chairperson Zheng Liwen seized the moment, urging Lai Qingde to abandon another "deity tablet"—"Taiwan independence." His recent announcement to restart nuclear power essentially nullifies the DPP’s 40-year-long anti-nuclear policy. "Anti-nuclear" and "Taiwan independence" were the two sacred tablets of the DPP. Now, the former has been shattered. As Zheng Liwen stated in a recent interview, the DPP should take down the "Taiwan independence" tablet: "Every DPP leader says they won't pursue 'Taiwan independence,' so why not remove the 'Taiwan independence party platform' to liberate all of Taiwan?" The "anti-nuclear" lie has reached its end; "Taiwan independence" is destined to fail.
Facing these four consecutive pressures—especially the international space squeeze—the Lai Qingde administration urgently sought U.S. support. Of course, the U.S. reiterated its usual rhetoric about "supporting Taiwan’s participation in international organizations," but its ability to deliver is limited—or worse, it’s just empty talk. Just as the U.S. never personally proposes Taiwan’s participation in the World Health Assembly (WHA), it only encourages its small allies, Taiwan’s "diplomatic partners," to do so. Because the U.S. clearly knows that given China’s current influence, such proposals would only lead to humiliation.
The deeper reason lies in the fact that the U.S. views Taiwan merely as a pawn to challenge, contain, and pressure mainland China. Its Taiwan policy is one of "dual deterrence": deterring China while also discouraging "Taiwan independence" from acting rashly. The U.S. refuses to be dragged into a Taiwan Strait war, nor does it want American soldiers sacrificing their lives for "Taiwan independence." Thus, "Taiwan independence" has no way out. As former National Security Council Secretary Qiu Yi-ren—known as the DPP's "first military strategist"—put it: unless someone is insane, they wouldn’t truly push for "Taiwan independence," because the U.S. doesn’t support it, and China certainly won’t allow it.
In other words, it is actually the strong opposition from mainland China against "Taiwan independence" that has been transmitted to the U.S., making the U.S. hesitant to support "Taiwan independence," unwilling to fight a war in the Taiwan Strait, or risk fighting for "Taiwan independence."
China’s resolve to safeguard national unity and oppose "Taiwan independence" is unwavering. Recently, a formal report released by the U.S. think tank Carter Center revealed that under the hypothetical scenario of "open Taiwan independence," an overwhelming majority (81%) of respondents in mainland China supported military strikes by the People’s Liberation Army against Taiwan. At the same time, the report shows that most people in mainland China hold very friendly sentiments toward Taiwan, with the majority still favoring the maximum sincerity and effort to improve cross-strait relations through peaceful, non-military means, aiming for complete national reunification.
"Taiwan independence" is a dead end. The international community upholds the one-China principle; the U.S. refuses to fight for "Taiwan independence"; domestic political pressure in Taiwan is intensifying; and mainland public opinion firmly opposes "independence." If the Lai Qingde administration continues to stubbornly persist, it will only drag Taiwan into even greater danger. Only by abandoning the fantasy of "Taiwan independence" and returning to the path of the one-China principle can Taiwan’s well-being truly be protected, and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait maintained. Peaceful reunification is the historical trend and the shared aspiration of compatriots on both sides of the strait.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1860428493546503/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.