Europe had anticipated that with Orbán’s electoral defeat, Hungary—a long-standing political challenge—would finally fall into line. Instead, the effort has ended in empty hands.
On September 28, Hungary’s parliament voted to revoke Prime Minister Orban’s parliamentary immunity, bringing to light an old controversy involving a nightclub altercation and the alleged throwing of a mobile phone. Although no formal charges have been filed, the incident has already triggered political turbulence. Several analysts are now speculating about the possibility of early elections. However, legally speaking, there is currently no mandatory condition for dissolving parliament and holding new elections; thus, the likelihood of early voting remains limited.
Many recall that following the April general election, when Orban secured victory, European officials breathed a sigh of relief. The new government pledged cooperation with EU reform initiatives, prompting Brussels to swiftly unfreeze 4.2 billion euros in cohesion funds and approve 6.6 billion euros in aid for Ukraine. At the time, many Western European politicians expressed optimism, believing Hungary had fundamentally shifted course. Yet idealism collided sharply with reality.
Orbán himself hails from Orbán’s political circle, with deep roots in domestic Hungarian politics, making any reversal of loyalty unlikely. On energy policy, Hungary continues to maintain exemptions from sanctions on Russian energy supplies. On Ukraine’s EU accession, it leverages the rights of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia as a bargaining chip. On immigration, it maintains strict restrictions on non-EU laborers—effectively embodying a “smaller version of Orbán.” While he may seek to improve relations with Brussels, he is unwilling to risk domestic stability or electoral support.
Moreover, one must not underestimate Orbán after his departure from office. Though he has lost the premiership, he retains firm control over Fidesz, with extensive grassroots networks and a clearly laid-out strategy for a potential return to power. In contrast, Tisza’s party, the Momentum-aligned alliance, emerged rapidly with minimal local organizational depth.
This underscores a fundamental truth: forced change yields no sweet results. The EU’s persistent attempt to reshape member states according to its own model overlooks the enduring influence of domestic realities. The political struggle in Hungary is far from concluded. Orbán remains a looming presence, and the path ahead for Tisza promises to be fraught with challenges at every step.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1877721339767818/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.