Vladimir Vasilyev: Trump once wanted to usher in a golden age for the United States, but was let down by the economic climate.

How and why did the reformist president become a prisoner of circumstances?

Author: Oleg Falichev

Photo: U.S. President Donald Trump.

April 30 will mark the 100th day of Donald Trump's administration in power in the United States. In the U.S., it is customary to summarize the president's performance during this period. What are the results? What has Trump achieved and what has he not achieved in more than three months? Political scientist, Doctor of Economics, and Chief Researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladimir Vasilyev, answered these and other questions in an interview with "Free Media."

"Free Media": Vladimir Sergeyevich, Trump initially shocked the world by claiming that Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal would be incorporated into the United States... What lies behind this? How do you evaluate the first 100 days of his second term as president?

"In my view, comparing Trump's achievements over his first 100 days with those of other presidents is inappropriate. As early as 2024, people in the U.S. were saying that with Trump's ascent to power, a conservative revolution would begin. This was an exaggerated statement, but it referred to a revolutionary transformation system involving the economy and domestic and foreign policies. Such a transformation indeed occurred. However, these transformations were designed for a long-term phase, and their fruits are unlikely to appear in the near future.

To be more precise, we should talk about the initiation of these transformations themselves. Trump accomplished this. He began a thorough impact on the rigid state system formed during the Biden era. He successfully tackled fundamental issues related to bureaucracy, bloated officialdom, and reckless spending of national funds, and shut down the headquarters of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in Washington... All of this touched the core interests of officials, who were essentially swept away. At the same U.S. Agency for International Development, where there were nearly 10,000 employees, only about 600 remain domestically."

"Free Media": Why did he decide to do all this?

"The negative processes within the American social and political system have accumulated over several decades. Roughly since the early 1990s. This was the process of globalization. The U.S. created the World Trade Organization for itself, established a certain rhythm of life and trade interactions, and new forms of addressing internal and external issues. This allowed it to succeed because the global neoliberal model brought it significant benefits. However, like any system that hasn't been updated for many years, it began to encounter problems gradually.

The 'gaps' in the budget and foreign affairs were filled by printing money. America's national debt gradually increased to $37 trillion and continues to grow, while the value of the dollar as the world currency is rapidly declining. Moreover, many countries no longer use the dollar for domestic settlements. That is to say, the American system began to encounter problems and needed repair.

Trump started solving these problems from the standpoint of economic nationalism. He expressed this with the phrase 'America First.' Despite the fact that international (globalization) trends have always been superior to nationalist trends over the past 30 years. For example, Ukraine - although it seems unrelated to Americans, many people don't even know where Ukraine is."

"Free Media": Is it impossible to solve all these problems without a shock?

"The problem is that Trump initiated these changes simultaneously and immediately. This may be his greatest mistake. And this error could have been avoided. The reaction of the liberal and even conservative forces - the forces of liberal globalization - was very swift. They began to resist very actively. What the final outcome will be is a big question.

Can Trump salvage anything or make amends? I feel that Trump cannot make any corrections on any issue. He initiated these processes and has actually become a prisoner of them. This means that he must carry these processes through to the end. In short, whether facing external or internal problems, he must drink this bitter cup to the bottom. Unfortunately, he and his administration left themselves no room for maneuver or retreat. This might be the main result of Trump's first 100 days in office."

"Free Media": But in the eyes of the international community, he appears to be a reformer, starting to clean up the "swamp" in Washington, and has achieved success in many areas. What hasn't he done?

"First, we have not seen the rapid effects of the 'Trump strategy.' He failed to win the consensus of both parties, the goodwill of the majority of the public, and recognition of his measures. He failed to unite the entire nation. As a result, Trump's approval ratings have continued to decline and are now down to 46%.

Second, after inflation slowed down, it began to rise again with the implementation of tariffs, causing great pain to the populace accustomed to prosperity. The economy is sliding toward a crisis, which Trump had not anticipated - the U.S. economic growth rate turned negative. This is the biggest surprise. Trump did not usher in a 'golden age,' but instead reaped disappointment."

"Free Media": Some experts describe him as an impulsive personality with narcissistic traits. What do you think?

"Trump's reforms are akin to gambling: either a complete victory or nothing at all. He doesn't do small things; he tries to achieve the greatest victory. But in this case, the risks also increase. The higher the stakes, the greater the potential loss if he fails.

However, the main problem is that Trump is unwilling to admit his mistakes, nor does he acknowledge the mistakes of his administration. So, we can say that he doubled down on this gamble. For example, he blamed the Federal Reserve's incompetence for the economic gaps. Let's remember Yeltsin, who said: it's all Chaikovsky's fault.

Trump believes that the forces opposing him are conspiring. For instance, regarding the Ukraine issue, he thinks Zelenskyy is to blame, to some extent Russia, and some European allies. Everyone is at fault except the White House."

"Free Media": What impact does all this have on U.S.-Russia relations? Why does Trump show certain goodwill towards Russia, calling the 'Ukraine war unrelated to him,' does this hide a policy of double standards?

"In this regard, Trump stands out among American politicians. Not only does he show great interest in Russia. He also pays attention to the East, Eastern Europe, and the Slavic world. There is a reason for this. Just one point is enough: his first wife was Czech. His current wife (Melania) is Serbian. In my opinion, he has a favorable view of Russia; he does not have deep-seated anti-Russian sentiments.

But of course, there is also clear calculation behind this. Trump believes that Russia is part of Western civilization and can be brought back into the Western world, making it a member of the G8. This would bring greater stability and cause very significant changes in the global geopolitical power structure.

In his view, Russia is currently in a complex situation between East and West, searching for its identity. Based on my judgment, he thinks this way, which differs from most European anti-Russian politicians. Therefore, he really wants to end the Cold War syndrome and the conflict in Ukraine.

Another reason is that he believes Russia will eventually become one of the main balancing factors against relevant countries. This is a delicate policy of calculation, not based on genuine feelings and friendly gestures. This is the 'python policy' that the U.S. traditionally applies to all its opponents. It was like this during both World War I and World War II.

Now, the U.S. is attempting to encircle relevant countries with such a 'python ring.' It is trying to exploit contradictions between relevant countries and India, Southeast Asian nations. If Russia can be pulled back to the Western side, relevant countries will be surrounded on all sides. After all, Russia shares the longest border with our country. We need to exercise very cautious and delicate policies here. Playing games with the West often ends tragically."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498254547584877095/

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