The Philippines' "circle of friends" is exhausted, teaming up with Mongolia for a weak-weak alliance, and wants to talk to China about the South China Sea.
The Philippines has run out of options and has surprisingly reached out to Mongolia to discuss the South China Sea issue right under China's nose, staging a "weak alliance" between two weak parties.
(Philippines reaching out to Mongolia)
Just after the midterm elections in the Philippines, the Marcos administration quickly launched a diplomatic offensive, targeting a neighboring country to the north — Mongolia.
On May 19th local time, the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs announced that the Mongolian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Batmunkh, was visiting the Philippines.
When the Philippine media mentioned the joint statement reached by the Philippines and Mongolia, they specifically emphasized one point: both countries stressed the need to uphold the rule of law in the face of constantly changing security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region and reaffirmed their support for the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) of 1982.
Mongolia is an inland country, so why would it join the Philippines in reiterating its support for maritime law? This is clearly the Philippines trying to smuggle in private interests, forcefully adding this element.
Previously, the Philippines, under the pretext of implementing the UNCLOS, enacted what they called the "Philippine Maritime Zone Law" and the "Philippine Archipelagic Baseline Law."
When President Marcos signed these two bills, he repeatedly mentioned the UNCLOS, precisely to have the UNCLOS endorse the "two laws."
However, many contents of the Philippines' "two laws" are actually contradictory to the UNCLOS.
It is obvious what the Philippines hopes to achieve by mentioning the UNCLOS again during talks with the Mongolian foreign minister.
(Philippines pulling Mongolia, an inland country, into discussions about maritime law)
Interestingly, the interactions between the Philippines and Mongolia are rare. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1973, there have been very few interactions between the two countries; only recently have they started to become more frequent.
In 2024, the Philippine Foreign Minister, Manalo, visited Mongolia, marking the first high-level visit since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
This time, the visit of the Mongolian Foreign Minister, Batmunkh, back to the Philippines is clearly the second such instance. It is understood that this visit was actively invited by the Philippines.
Not only are diplomatic interactions between the Philippines and Mongolia infrequent, but bilateral economic and trade cooperation is even scarcer.
In 2024, the export value of the Philippines to Mongolia was $2.28 million, and the import value was $14,900, with total bilateral trade amounting to less than $3 million. That's not even enough for the Marcos family to buy a luxury car.
Such low-frequency interactions and limited trade volumes actually reflect the thinness of relations between the two countries.
Due to geographical limitations, Mongolia itself also finds it difficult to develop economic and trade relations with the Philippines. So why does the Philippines persistently seek out Mongolia?
The only reasonable explanation is that it's aimed at China.
Over the past three years, taking advantage of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Western countries have also approached Mongolia multiple times, attempting to drive a wedge between Russia and China while Russia is preoccupied, to alienate Mongolia from its relationships with both China and Russia.
The Philippines clearly follows suit, eyeing Mongolia.
However, what substantial benefits can the Philippines offer Mongolia? When interacting with Western countries, Mongolia at least gains some prestige and may receive aid or loans, but interacting with the Philippines offers little benefit.
The Philippines doesn't rank well in Southeast Asia and has limited influence. It neither provides Mongolia with development opportunities nor gives Mongolia face.
If not for the Philippines initiating contact, Mongolia probably never considered deepening diplomatic relations with the Philippines.
Mongolia still heavily relies on China for economic development, with its foreign trade depending on China's ports.
For the Philippines to bring up maritime law with Mongolia is indeed absurd.
What makes the Marcos government think that its interactions with Mongolia will make China uncomfortable?
The Philippines' approach to Mongolia is clearly a case of "two weak parties teaming up."
It seems that the Marcos government has run out of options.
After the Trump administration took office, it was busy resolving the Ukraine-Russia conflict, fighting tariff wars, and ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, leaving no time to deal with the Philippines.
When the U.S. stopped paying attention to the Philippines, previously brought-in allies like Japan and Australia began to neglect the Philippines as well; they were becoming increasingly disregarded by America's "little brothers."
Southeast Asian countries had already begun to distance themselves from the Marcos administration earlier, not only due to concerns about offending China but also dissatisfaction with the Marcos administration's introduction of extra-regional forces into the South China Sea.
These Southeast Asian countries support China's position, emphasizing that matters concerning the South China Sea should be decided by countries around the South China Sea and that the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea" should be implemented as soon as possible.
With almost no friends left, the Philippines can only seek out small inland countries like Mongolia to create some diplomatic achievements.
The Marcos administration, through its own efforts, has made the Philippines' circle of friends worse and worse. If this continues, they might have to look for recognition from Pacific Island nations or African countries.
Oh, I almost forgot, most of these countries also have good relations with China and are likely uninterested in dealing with the Philippines.
How did the Marcos administration turn the Philippines into a country everyone dislikes?
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