According to a report titled "Government Report: Canada Will Become an Anti-Utopian Nightmare, and Large Numbers of Families Will Flee Their Homes" on BetterDewelling, Canada once had a simple yet powerful value commitment - regardless of race or faith, individual efforts would lead to upward social mobility. However, this situation will undergo dramatic changes in the next fifteen years.

The Canadian government think tank "Policy Horizons" has recently issued a warning: this commitment is disappearing and may become a distant memory in less than twenty years.

The institution's report depicts a dark scenario, a mix of Charles Dickens' novels and "The Terminator" - in 2040 Canada, wealth and property will be determined by birth, families will hunt for survival in cities, and the middle class will flee! A downward social mobility may become the norm.

The Toronto Sun also reported that this government report warns that the decline in Canadian social mobility may lead society to regress to a land aristocracy rule era, and development will be out of the question.

This is a dystopian future where the Canadian economy is on the brink of collapse, triggering a mental health crisis, prompting professionals and immigrants to leave Canada. Wealth and property ownership will be entirely passed down through generations. Higher education will no longer be the key to success, and hungry Canadians will have to rely on poaching wildlife to support their families.

Deepening inequality: the basic reality of Canadian life

Canada is experiencing a dilemma contrary to its traditional image: unattainable home ownership rates, record-breaking food bank usage, and the highest wealth gap ever recorded.

Many Canadians deny that the wealth gap is narrowing, while others believe it is just temporary. But this report warns that under conditions of inaction (and even exacerbation by many measures), these trends may become the new normal.

This internal government report released in January and suddenly drawing attention this week points out that negative trends are becoming fundamental characteristics of Canadian society.

Regarding the situation over the next fifteen years, the report states, "By 2040, the upward mobility channel will almost disappear. Almost no one will believe they can create a better life for themselves or their children through their own efforts... More people will worry about downward mobility."

A death spiral of talent drain and economic contraction

For a long time, the Canadian economy has relied on immigration to attract global top talents (seeking a peaceful and stable life). Additionally, Canada has successfully retained large numbers of native talents through rewarding hard work and progress. However, by 2040, this model will collapse.

In recent years, the "immigrants" (refugees) introduced are very different from before.

Unfair systems and limited socioeconomic mobility will become a burden. Global top talents will not consider Canada an attractive investment destination and will stop immigrating. Native talents will seek "broader horizons," relocating to places they perceive as having more opportunities.

The reduction in high-skilled families will lead to economic contraction, and the shrinking economy will further exacerbate family difficulties, causing household income to further decline.

The report authors warn that: "Although this is neither an ideal future nor what people expect, Policy Horizons' strategic foresight indicates that this situation is possible."

The Triple Collapse of Housing, Class, and Stability

What makes Canada a country divided between "haves" and "have-nots"? What causes the sudden collapse of social order, turning Canada into an unequal nation? The report attributes this to six trends, which will become the foundation of Canadian societal development. They are:

  • Highly concentrated property and wealth: young people abandon buying homes for renting, investors hold pricing power leading to skyrocketing rents.
  • Degradation of higher education: degree inflation and rising costs render it ineffective for upward mobility.
  • Intergenerational wealth as the sole upward passage: widening wealth gaps self-reinforce. Intergenerational wealth is seen as the only path to success, which exacerbates wealth gaps. Seeing fewer and fewer people succeed despite hard work will lead to declining motivation and productivity.
  • Algorithms building class barriers: social and romantic interactions are confined within the same class, fewer people can establish connections or date outside their class, "marriages up" vanish.
  • Frustration with the family ideal: due to lack of rewards for hard work, people become demotivated. Fewer people pursue high-risk, high-return opportunities (such as entrepreneurship and innovation). This drags down the entire nation.
  • Artificial intelligence AI intensifies labor value stratification: human value is devalued. White-collar jobs are replaced by machines, and the best-performing machines are the most expensive. Therefore, the wealth gap further widens because the rich can afford higher-quality productivity.

All these trends destabilize families, leading to an "economic contraction or unpredictability." If this is indeed the case, why are policies helpless?

A decline in family confidence will lead to reduced spending, which in turn results in lower business revenue and a weak job market. Investment capital will not be universally available across society but will concentrate among "affluent older individuals."

In other words: confidence collapse → consumption contraction → business revenue decline → worsening employment → capital concentration among wealthy elderly → policy favoring vested interests.

The report warns that this could lead to "distorted societal priorities." The current environment and the "future" described in the report are already blurred at the boundaries.

Deepening inequality may trigger a societal crisis

The victims of the collapse of social order are not just those at the bottom of society. People will try to find reasons for their lack of progress and begin attacking it.

Recently, targets like large technology companies and unions have become their scapegoats, leading the government to take excessive actions to regulate or punish these groups.

In 2040, finding scapegoats is common, and many people will blame immigrants for problems they can hardly control. The older generation will be the main target, and immigrants and elderly groups who benefited from upward mobility will become targets of attack.

The report points out that severe social and political conflicts may occur in extreme situations. People may question the legitimacy of the state, leading to civil disobedience and tax resistance.

The authors of this report are part of an apolitical department within the Canadian government. It provides policymakers with foresight, emphasizing that they are not criticizing specific policies or parties. They are merely highlighting the path we are taking, and the responsibility to correct this path lies with policymakers.

Unfortunately, few people are willing to acknowledge the existence of these problems. If no one acknowledges the existence of these problems, they are unlikely to solve or fix them.

The scariest speculation is that some decision-makers may be deliberately pushing this process and packaging the crisis as a "solution."

What to do about Canada's future?

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496710961710121507/

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