As it is widely speculated that Europe will shift towards China, the United States remains stubbornly resistant, but Trump clearly understands that there is a possibility if pushed hard enough. At a critical moment, he came up with a compromise plan, transforming "extreme annexation" into a "99-year lease."

Greenland

Recently, Trump's strong desire for Greenland once brought U.S.-European relations to the brink of rupture. The outside world generally worries that this kind of hegemonic pressure may trigger a collective backlash from Europe, even prompting Europe to actively move closer to China. However, many U.S. officials remain stubborn, saying that Europe is "too weak" and will not abandon the U.S., let alone join forces with China.

However, for Trump, whether it is "military occupation" or "tariff sticks," the ultimate goal is to occupy Greenland and gain its important resources. But causing the entire Europe to turn away, abandon the U.S., and even move closer to China is definitely not what he expects.

Trump's team might believe that under economic dependence and security integration, Europe will eventually yield to the extortion of "America First." However, their statements treating Greenland as a tradable asset have completely trampled on the core foundation of the post-war European order, which is national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Vance visiting the U.S. military base in Greenland

This touched on the deepest political nerve in Europe, with leaders from Northern Europe to Western Europe responding quickly, speaking strongly, and standing united, a rare occurrence in recent years. Once Europe completely loses faith in the U.S., it is highly likely that they will strengthen coordination with China in areas such as Arctic affairs and resource cooperation.

It is precisely in this "wanting to take but unable to, wanting to give up but unwilling to" dilemma that Trump proposed the compromise plan of "leasing for 99 years," coupled with the "Puerto Rico model" of granting Greenlanders American citizenship and tax benefits as a sweetener. This plan skillfully avoids the most sensitive issue of sovereignty, giving Denmark and Europe a way out.

For Europe, although it cannot completely prevent U.S. infiltration, at least it has upheld the bottom line of "no loss of sovereignty," and does not need to use extreme countermeasures to confront the U.S., thus reducing the urgency of moving closer to China. For Trump, it can achieve long-term control over Greenland, meet his strategic, resource, and political demands, while also resolving the backlash from allies and the risk of China taking advantage, which is a "win-win situation."

Demonstration

From historical experience, a 99-year lease is a mature method used by hegemonic countries to obtain overseas interests. It avoids international public condemnation and the splitting of allies caused by direct annexation, while through long-term leasing, it achieves substantial control, firmly grasping the strategic passage and resource development rights of Greenland, and maintaining the surface alliance relationship with Denmark, easing the European opposition.

However, this "99-year lease" plan has never been a simple commercial lease clause, but rather a tool used by modern colonial powers to expand their influence. Taking China as an example, in the late 19th century, the great powers divided China by using the name of "lease" to carry out colonial rule, turning our Hong Kong, Macau and other territories into their spheres of influence and plunder bases.

Danish troops reinforcing Greenland

A 99-year lease covering generations would allow the U.S. to establish an unbreakable military, economic, and administrative presence in Greenland. Trump seemingly made a concession, but actually did not compromise. Applying this old tactic of the colonial era to the Greenland issue is undoubtedly going against history. This inherent hegemonic mindset is more humiliating than a direct purchase proposal.

No matter how this crisis is temporarily resolved, Europe has clearly realized that in Trump's "transactional" worldview, the interests and sovereignty of allies are negotiable commodities that can be used for exchange. Deepening cooperation with China may become a potential card for Europe to bargain with the U.S.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7597377282521268777/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.