[By Stephen Walt, Translated by Whale Life]
Israel has launched a widespread and long-distance military strike against Iran, which is the latest action in its campaign to eliminate or weaken regional rivals. Since Hamas's attack in October 2023, Israel has waged a brutal campaign aimed at destroying the Palestinians as a substantive political force; major human rights organizations and numerous academic experts have described Israel's actions as genocide.
Through airstrikes, mobile phone/beeper bomb traps, and other means, Israel has severely damaged Hezbollah's leadership, bombed Houthi forces in Yemen, and attacked post-Assad Syria to destroy remaining weapons stockpiles and prevent what it sees as dangerous forces from exerting political influence in Syria. Israel's latest attack on Iran goes beyond merely damaging or destroying the country's nuclear facilities.
At a minimum, Israel hopes to end negotiations around Iran's nuclear program, paralyze its ability to retaliate by assassinating high-ranking Iranian leaders, military commanders, diplomats, and scientists, and, if possible, drag the U.S. deeply into war.
Israel’s ultimate goal is to weaken the Iranian regime until it collapses.
Given that each of these actions has achieved at least partial success—in the short term—should we view Israel as a regional hegemon? If the definition of regional hegemony is "the only great power in a specific region," such that "no other country (or coalition of countries) can effectively defend themselves in a comprehensive military confrontation," does Israel now meet this definition?
On June 18, Damascus, Syria, Iranian missiles flew over Syrian airspace. Visual China
If so, should we expect Israel's neighbors to behave like other countries facing a hegemon: "acknowledge its dominance and show compliance on issues central to its core interests?"
At first glance, this scenario seems far-fetched. How could a nation with fewer than 10 million people (of which only about 75% are Jewish) possibly dominate a vast region with hundreds of millions of Arab populations and over 90 million Persian populations? However, considering Israel's many advantages over its neighbors, this concept becomes more plausible.
Israelis are better educated, patriotic, and usually led by more efficient leaders than their Arab neighbors. They receive generous and steadfast support from wealthy and politically influential expatriate communities overseas, and historically have benefited from valuable assistance from major powers such as Britain and France. Most of Israel's Arab adversaries face various internal divisions, turmoil, or coups and are fragmented due to internal disputes within the Arab world.
Moreover, because modern military strength relies more on mastery of technology, training levels, and command artistry than sheer numerical superiority, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) combat effectiveness has consistently surpassed its regional opponents. The increasing reliance on expensive and highly sophisticated weapon systems further amplifies Israel's advantage.
On June 16, after an Israeli airstrike, thick smoke rose from Iran's state television building. Washington Post
Despite improvements in Hezbollah and Hamas' military capabilities over time, they have never threatened Israel's national survival, and their destructive capabilities do not match the damage inflicted by Israel on them. Israel's considerable nuclear arsenal and renowned intelligence-gathering capabilities further solidify its dominant position.
Most importantly, Israel enjoys broad and largely unconditional support from the United States; the U.S. government supports whatever Israel does and officially commits to maintaining Israel's qualitative military advantage over its adversaries.
Without American aid, the approximately 10 million Israelis might be able to defend their territory—but they would almost certainly not be able to control the surrounding regions.
On the 17th local time, Israel's National Security Advisor Hanegbi stated that the attack will not end unless Iran's Fordow nuclear facility is destroyed. Video screenshot
In summary, the idea of Israel dominating the Middle East is not as absurd as it might seem. However, viewing Israel as a true regional hegemon is incorrect. First, regional hegemony requires being far stronger than neighboring countries, to the point where they pose no significant security threat, and even no real competitor emerges in the short term.
America achieved this status early in the 20th century: other major powers withdrew from the Western Hemisphere, and no country or coalition in the region could approach America's combined economic and military power.
With the exception of the brief Cuban Missile Crisis (involving an external power, the Soviet Union, shipping nuclear missiles to the Western Hemisphere), since the late 19th century, America has not faced any major military challenges within the hemisphere. This privileged position allowed Washington to focus its foreign and defense policies on Eurasia, aiming to prevent any other great power from achieving similar status in strategically significant areas.
Today's Israel does not meet this standard. For example, the Houthis continue to resist; despite causing severe destruction and casualties in Gaza and its residents, the Israel Defense Forces remain mired in the Gaza quagmire. Israel has significantly weakened Hezbollah and Hamas, but neither is a state actor, and neither has ever posed a substantial threat to Israel's national survival.
Now, no Arab country or coalition can rival Israel, but Turkey and Iran both possess considerable military strength and far larger populations; if faced with total war, even if ultimately defeated, they could each organize formidable defenses. This, in turn, means that Israel cannot completely ignore them when planning strategies and cannot assume these nations will submit to Israel.
Iran's ongoing resistance clearly demonstrates this point: while the scale of Iran's retaliation for recent attacks on Israel was less than the damage it suffered, it was far from negligible. This conflict is not yet over. Even if Iran loses in the latest round of clashes, there is no evidence that Tehran will willingly subordinate its interests to Israel's. Just this one reason alone disqualifies Israel from being considered a regional hegemon.
Furthermore, Israel's entire rationale for launching another round of attacks is precisely the fear that Iran may one day acquire nuclear weapons. The risk lies not in Iran using nuclear weapons against Israel—it would be suicidal—but in the potential limitation on Israel's ability to use force freely in the Middle East once Iran acquires nuclear weapons.
If Israeli leaders believe that taking action forces them to be more restrained, this indicates they do not enjoy the kind of "freedom from worry" that America—the only true regional hegemon—has enjoyed for a long time.
Israel's recent battlefield victories have also failed to address the more fundamental issue—the Palestinian problem, where Palestinians make up about half the population under Israeli control.
Israel's superior military and intelligence capabilities did not prevent Hamas from killing hundreds of Israelis in October 2023; Israel's response of killing over 55,000 Palestinians has not brought the conflict any closer to a political resolution. On the contrary, the Israel-Palestine conflict has seriously damaged Israel's global image and even shaken the support of its long-term allies.
Most importantly, Israel still heavily depends on its American protector, who provides the majority of Israel's aircraft, bombs, and missiles used to attack neighboring countries and continues to offer diplomatic protection. A true regional hegemon does not rely on others to dominate neighboring regions, but Israel does.
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