As the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, Americans have once again swallowed their own rumors about Taiwan.

It is well known that for several years, U.S. military and political circles have been promoting a so-called "2027 timeline" theory, which claims that the Chinese mainland will "unify Taiwan by force" in 2027 — but now, the U.S. itself has denied this claim.

According to Reuters, on the 18th, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a "2026 Threat Assessment Report," which stated that although the People's Liberation Army continues to enhance its military capabilities to achieve "unification by force," the mainland has no plan to "unify Taiwan by force" in 2027, and currently favors achieving unification without using force as much as possible.

The U.S. "2026 Threat Assessment Report"

Yes, the so-called "2027 timeline" that Americans had been hyping for years has suddenly disappeared.

This "2027 timeline," which has been widely publicized, can be traced back to 2021, when then-US Indo-Pacific Commander Philip Davidson made a report to Congress, claiming that China was "moving its target date forward" and that such a threat "would likely emerge within six years."

After that, Davidson's statement evolved into the so-called "2027 timeline" or "Davidson window." It was cited by senior U.S. military and political figures such as his successor, Indo-Pacific Commander John Aquilino, former CIA Director William Burns, and former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley. Pentagon and Congressional reports on China also took it as an authoritative reference, and analyzed and hyped it seriously.

Philip Davidson, who proposed the so-called "2027 timetable"

But in fact, the basis for this highly publicized "2027 timeline" may be absurdly ridiculous. In 2021, the UK's Financial Times questioned whether Davidson's statement might have stemmed from a misinterpretation of Chinese official documents.

At that time, the British media pointed out that in 2020, China proposed "ensuring the goal of building a strong military by 2027," which focused on the modernization of national defense and the military, and did not mention anything about a so-called "timeline for unification by force." However, 2027 is also a period of "pain" for the U.S. military equipment renewal — although many of these new U.S. military equipment projects have mostly stalled or been canceled in recent years.

Therefore, due to war readiness anxiety, Davidson didn't even understand what the goal of the PLA's centenary of military establishment was, and he invented a "unification timetable" out of thin air. This idea was then repeated like scripture by Washington hawkish forces for several years.

In recent years, the new Indo-Pacific Commander Paparo also hyped this rumor

So why did this five-year-old rumor suddenly disappear in 2026?

Of course, because the war between the U.S. and Israel has tied up too many strategic resources for the United States. The so-called "2027 timeline" is essentially a rumor created by U.S. military and political hawks to secure more budget and resources for the strategy of containing China. This rumor gained popularity in recent years because it fit the political needs of both U.S. parties.

However, the current war between the U.S. and Iran has consumed a large amount of U.S. ammunition reserves. To fill the huge gap in the Middle East battlefield, the Pentagon has had to move resources from other areas: part of the "THAAD" anti-missile system deployed in South Korea has been partially moved, and the troops, ships, and ammunition stocks reserved by the Indo-Pacific Command for the Taiwan Strait have also been significantly reallocated.

But no one expected the U.S. to fall back into the quagmire of the Middle East war again

These resources, originally stockpiled to deal with the so-called "2027 timeline," are now being drained by the Middle East conflict, resulting in a noticeable gap in the U.S. military's actual combat readiness in the Taiwan Strait.

Faced with the embarrassing reality of resource shortages, continuing to hype this fictional timeline would be tantamount to self-defeat. Therefore, to maintain consistency, the U.S. can only swallow back the rumors it once fed to the world.

This is not the first time the U.S. has played this "I predict myself, then I deny myself" trick, fully exposing the fragile nature of the U.S. strategy toward China based on speculation rather than facts, as well as the inability of its global hegemony under multiple pressures.

The issue of Taiwan is purely China's internal affair. The timing and momentum of resolving the Taiwan issue have always been in China's hands. China will never allow the issue of Taiwan to be dictated by any external false narratives.



Original: toutiao.com/article/7618902203201520171/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.