The New York Times published an article on the 19th with a highly visually impactful title: "A Century of China May Be Upon Us." This article is very informative for both Americans and Chinese. However, the New York Times is not praising China; instead, it uses the image of an ascending dragon to scare Trump and warn him that "the threat from China" is imminent. They believe that Trump is leisurely enjoying the supposed magic of tariffs. Reading this article can broaden our understanding of how Western mainstream media generally describes China.

The New York Times article begins by saying that for many years, theorists have been envisioning the arrival of a "Chinese Century": a world where China ultimately leverages its enormous economic and technological potential to surpass the United States and reshape the global power structure, centering it around Beijing. It then writes that this century may have already arrived, and when historians look back, they are likely to point to the first few months of President Trump's second term as a turning point where China distanced itself from the U.S.

The article claims that Washington and Beijing have reached a temporary truce in their trade war, but this is inconsequential. The U.S. president immediately claimed victory, highlighting the fundamental issue facing the Trump administration and the U.S.: while suffering a crushing defeat in the more critical battle with China, the U.S. is narrowly focused on trivial conflicts.

The article continues by stating that Trump is recklessly destroying the pillars of American power and innovation. His tariffs are jeopardizing U.S. companies' access to global markets and supply chains. He is cutting public research funding, weakening universities, forcing talented researchers to consider leaving for other countries. He wants to scale back projects in technologies like clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing and eliminate America's soft power across large regions globally.

▲The Guomao area of Beijing, the capital of China.

Then the article shifts its tone to describe a starkly different trajectory for China. It writes that in industries such as steel and aluminum, shipbuilding, batteries, solar panels, electric vehicles, wind turbines, drones, 5G equipment, consumer electronics, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and high-speed rail, China has already taken the lead in global production. By 2030, China will account for 45% of global manufacturing, nearly half. Beijing is equally focused on securing future success: In March this year, it announced a 1 trillion yuan national venture capital fund for long-term investment in cutting-edge technologies like quantum computing and robotics, and increased public research budgets.

The article states that China's approach has yielded astonishing results. "When China's deep learning startup Qwen launched its AI chatbot in January, many Americans suddenly realized that China could compete in the field of artificial intelligence. But that’s not all; there are many such 'Sputnik moments'."

"Elon Musk, a political ally of Trump, once mocked Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD, but last year, BYD's global sales surpassed Tesla's, and it is building new factories worldwide. In March, its market value exceeded the combined total of Ford, General Motors, and Volkswagen. China is leading in drug development, especially cancer treatments, installed more industrial robots than all other countries in 2023. Semiconductors, crucial commodities of this century and a long-standing weakness for China, are being addressed by China through self-sufficiency efforts led by Huawei's recent breakthroughs. Importantly, China's advantages in these fields and overlapping technologies are creating a virtuous cycle, with progress in one area promoting and enhancing others.

"However, Trump remains fixated on tariffs. He seems not to even realize the extent of the threat posed by China. Before the two countries agreed to cut trade tariffs last Monday, Trump dismissed concerns that his previous tariff hikes on Chinese goods would leave American store shelves empty. He said Americans just need to buy fewer dolls for their children – this outdated notion of China as merely a factory for toys and cheap goods is completely wrong.

The article claims that the U.S. needs to recognize that neither tariffs nor other trade pressures will make China abandon its long-standing state-led economic policies or suddenly adopt what Americans perceive as fair industrial and trade policies. Instead, Beijing is doubling down on its state-led approach, focusing intensively on achieving dominance in high-tech industries akin to the Manhattan Project.

The article states that Trump's blind obsession with short-term expedients like tariffs is actively undermining the foundations of American strength while only accelerating the arrival of a world dominated by China.

▲Production workshop of Xiaomi, a Chinese new energy vehicle company.

The article further writes that if both countries continue on their current trajectories, China is likely to eventually dominate advanced manufacturing entirely, from cars, chips to MRI machines and commercial aircraft. The competition for supremacy in artificial intelligence will not be between the U.S. and China but between high-tech cities like Shenzhen and Hangzhou in China. As an outstanding global technology and economic superpower, China's factories will be found all over the world and will reconfigure supply chains centered around China. In contrast, the U.S. might end up becoming a severely declining nation. Protected by tariff barriers, American businesses will almost exclusively sell products to domestic consumers. The loss of international sales will reduce corporate earnings and limit funds available for business investments. Rising manufacturing costs in the U.S. will force consumers to purchase mid-range quality products that are more expensive than global alternatives. Wage-earning families will face rising inflation and stagnant incomes. Traditional high-value industries like automotive manufacturing and pharmaceuticals have already shifted to China; important industries of the future will follow suit. Imagine a scenario where entire regions resemble Detroit or Cleveland.

The article concludes by stating that to avoid this grim scenario, it means making policy choices that should be obvious and supported by both parties - today: investing in R&D; supporting academic, technological, and business innovation; establishing economic ties with countries around the world; creating a friendly and attractive environment for international talent and capital. However, the Trump administration's actions in these areas are precisely the opposite.

The conclusion of the article is: whether this century belongs to China or the U.S. depends on us. However, time to change course is running out.

The article from The New York Times is entirely zero-sum thinking about the outcome of this century's competition between the two great powers, China and the U.S. In the minds of American elites, the concept of "win-win" does not exist. Their historical experience and mindset are the source of tension and instability in today's world.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7506557965999063563/

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