At 20:00 local time on February 8, the Japanese House of Representatives election concluded voting. An exit poll released by Japan Broadcasting Corporation (NHK) immediately showed that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to win 300 seats in this House of Representatives election, far exceeding the 233 seats required for a majority. If it indeed secures 300 seats, this will be the largest victory for the LDP since the current electoral system was introduced in 1996.

Additionally, the ruling coalition composed of the LDP and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan has a high chance of securing two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives, thereby establishing a practical foundation for proposing an amendment to the constitution.

NHK's quick report on the voting results, the LDP has confirmed at least 224 seats NHK

NHK conducted exit surveys at over 4,000 polling stations across Japan on the 8th, surveying approximately 571,000 voters who had completed their voting, and obtained valid responses from about 59.7%, or more than 340,000 people.

According to the exit survey and election analysis, in this House of Representatives election, the LDP is expected to gain between 274 and 328 seats, significantly exceeding the 233 seats needed for a majority. It is already clear that the LDP can not only ensure the appointment of chairmen in all standing committees and control more than half of the committee members, known as the "absolute stable majority" of 261 seats, but also have the possibility of reaching 300 seats alone. As a result, the Kishida administration is expected to continue.

This is the first time since the 2021 election five years ago that the LDP has gained a majority of seats in the House of Representatives on its own.

Meanwhile, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is expected to secure between 28 and 38 seats. With this, the combined total of the LDP and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is expected to reach between 302 and 366 seats, showing a strong trend of securing around two-thirds of the total seats in the House of Representatives, i.e., 310 seats, thus establishing a parliamentary basis to support the re-voting of bills and propose constitutional amendments.

On the other hand, the opposition bloc will see the Center Reform Alliance securing only between 37 and 91 seats, a significant reduction from the 172 seats before the election, with the number of seats roughly halved. The Constitutional Democratic Party is expected to gain between 18 and 35 seats, while the Communist Party is expected to gain between 3 and 8 seats. The Reiwa Shinsengumi may gain up to 2 seats, while the Tax Reduction Japan - Country Concerned Alliance may gain up to 3 seats. The Seiyu Party is expected to increase its seats compared to the previous election, gaining between 5 and 14 seats. The Japanese Conservative Party may gain 1 seat, and the Social Democratic Party faces a severe situation of potentially not gaining any seats. Additionally, the newly established "Team Future" is expected to gain between 7 and 13 seats, while independent candidates are expected to gain between 3 and 8 seats.

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Original: toutiao.com/article/7604451987295437322/

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