US President Trump previously claimed that he would impose a 50% tariff on goods imported from Brazil starting August 1, and also asked Brazil to stop the judicial investigation into former president Bolsonaro. However, insiders said that what truly "angered" Trump was Brazil's long-term efforts within the BRICS countries to "de-dollarize."
How does Brazil view the development of the BRICS organization and its efforts to reshape the global order? How will Trump's ascension affect US policy toward South America's "backyard"? What opportunities will China-Brazil relations face?
Regarding these topics, "Beijing Dialogue" had an exchange with Mr. Marcos Carvalho, former Brazilian ambassador to China and international advisor at the Brazilian Institute of International Relations, bringing his insights.
Former Brazilian Ambassador to China and International Advisor at the Brazilian Institute of International Relations, Marcos Carvalho
[Dialogue/ Li Zexi, Translation/Ma Li]
Beijing Dialogue: Ambassador Carvalho, I have read your resume and found that you held several positions in the financial sector, including as a director at the World Bank. Later, you moved to diplomatic roles in several Asian countries, including as the Brazilian ambassador to China. If it's convenient, could you please introduce what prompted you to make such a career change? And what do you think are the connections between your experience in financial governance and your role as a Brazilian ambassador in a distant country?
Carvalho: I am indeed a professional diplomat, but I never had a typical diplomatic career. In fact, I did not work in diplomacy all the time. When I was young, I worked in the Brazilian Ministry of Finance for many years. Later, I joined the financial team to negotiate with commercial creditors regarding Brazil's foreign debt problems in the 1980s. After that, I served as a director at the World Bank. Upon returning to Brazil, I took on the position of Secretary for International Affairs in the Ministry of Finance. In Brazil, you can engage in diplomatic-related work in different departments. I worked for many years in the Ministry of Finance, but I am not a traditional diplomat, nor do I have the usual career path of a diplomat.
My career has been deeply connected to the financial sector. I once served as the Consul General of Brazil in Shanghai. After that, I decided to retire early. At the time of my retirement, I was 58 years old, not yet 60. After retiring in Shanghai, I established a consulting company, providing consulting services for Chinese companies interested in Brazil and Brazilian companies interested in China. Later, a new government emerged in Brazil, and the impeached president was replaced by a new president. They invited me to serve as the ambassador to China. At that time, I had already retired. After serving as the ambassador to China, I returned to the consulting industry and have been working there until now.
Beijing Dialogue: Why did the new Brazilian government choose you, a retired diplomat, to rejoin the diplomatic team? From a certain perspective, the two-year term as the ambassador to China seems to be a very important chapter in your career.
Carvalho: I think there are two reasons. First, I left the diplomatic field because I understood that during that period, the left-wing government did not want me to work for them. I had previously worked in the centrist government led by Cardoso, and when I retired, the left-wing forces were proud to declare that they had taken control of Brazilian politics and elected a new president, and they would not support my diplomatic work much. This is the first reason. The second point is that a new government was formed. They needed to appoint a new ambassador, but they didn't know how to choose, so they decided to choose someone who was already in China.
I initially thought that the Chinese would say that the Brazilian government had just picked someone who was already in China as an ambassador, and this person would not play a big role. But the actual situation was the opposite. I think the Chinese saw the appointment of me as an ambassador by the Brazilian government like this: "Oh, this person knows us well, and he is familiar with China, so we can trust him." I wasn't sure about the reaction of the Chinese side when I was appointed as the ambassador to China. However, in the end, the Chinese reaction was very positive.
Beijing Dialogue: In your answer to the first question, you mentioned that you participated in handling Brazil's foreign debt problem in the 1980s. What lessons do you think Brazil has learned from that event? Do you believe these lessons have broader applicability internationally, especially for Asian countries?
Carvalho: I think the most important lesson is that a balance of payments crisis can lead to the collapse or economic collapse of a country. Brazil's economy was very fragile for more than a decade and could not grow, and we had many problems with our creditors. Therefore, the lesson is that we must ensure a good balance of payments and avoid debt problems with foreign markets. Brazil did this afterwards, and we actually no longer had any debt relationships with foreign markets. The public sector debt in Brazil is very small, almost extremely small.
Secondly, I want to talk about Asia. It was actually trade with Asia that greatly improved Brazil's balance of payments. We achieved a significant trade surplus, which I think is quite substantial, allowing our foreign exchange reserves to remain in a fairly good state. For an economy of Brazil's size, 300 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves is already very considerable.
This is the result of multiple factors working together. At a certain point, we had the ability to export commodities to Asia. And at that time, Asia needed to import a large amount of our products. This way, we avoided the balance of payments difficulties. It was a good match for both sides. Now, not only is the trade with China like this, but Brazil's trade with Europe is also good, although our exports to Asia are greater than our exports to Europe. We have become very accustomed to exporting products to Asia, and in a way, Asia helped us get out of the balance of payments crisis.
Beijing Dialogue: You currently work at the Brazilian Institute of International Relations (CEBRI), which recently released a report on Asia and China. The report states that despite the lack of many cooperation mechanisms between China and Brazil, bilateral trade has made significant progress and continues to grow over the past decade. Do you think increasing more forums, dialogues, and trade agreements would help elevate the trade between the two countries to a new level? Given that Sino-Brazilian trade is already in a relatively stable state, are these additional mechanisms redundant? If these mechanisms can play a role, how do they do it? In what situations would their role be better realized?
President Lula of Brazil, IC photo
Carvalho: Trade is not everything in the relationship between the two countries, because apart from trade, China has begun to invest in Brazil's economy. Today, the total investment from China in Brazil's real economy has reached 72 billion US dollars. Compared to the United States, American investments in Brazil have been ongoing for a very long time, and the total investment is approximately 240 to 250 billion US dollars. China has only 700 billion US dollars in investments, but it is still increasing. In a way, we have established a very good cooperative relationship with China and achieved a high level of mutual trust, both in trade and investment.
However, political dialogue and economic cooperation between the two countries have not reached the same level, and the impact of political dialogue and economic cooperation on the relationship between the two countries is different. Why is this the case? Because Brazil is a democratic country. When Brazil has a left-wing government, the connection with China is very close. But when Brazil has a right-wing government, this connection is weakened. However, economic connections have not been significantly weakened, even under a right-wing government, China's importance in our economy remains consistent.
Beijing Dialogue: Looking ahead, Brazil and China definitely have many areas where they need to work together. Although the current economic complementarity between Brazil and China is strong, this situation is not permanent. For example, Brazil has always wanted to achieve "reindustrialization," while China has always been committed to innovation in various fields to reduce its dependence on foreign goods. So, what new complementary relationships can Brazil and China establish under the premise of meeting the domestic development needs of both countries? You mentioned investment before, hoping to promote Chinese investment in Brazil. Are there other ways for the two countries to build complementary relationships?
Carvalho: Brazil's goal of "reindustrialization" is indeed a very beautiful vision, but the possibility of achieving it is not great. First, the cost of doing business in Brazil is very high. Second, Brazil cannot compete with China. China has reached a very high level in production efficiency, productivity, and product quality, which Brazil finds difficult to match.
However, Brazil also has its own advantages, that is, a sustainable economic model. We have a clean energy structure and a very rich biodiversity. We can produce products such as aviation fuel in a sustainable manner, and the production process does not cause any pollution. Therefore, I think the future cooperation between the two countries is closely related to sustainability and sustainable economic development models. In the field of sustainable economy, China is a leader. We can see the presence of China in wind energy, solar energy, and automotive manufacturing. China is a leader, but there are still many areas to explore in the field of sustainable economy, especially those related to biodiversity, and building factories under the background of clean energy economy. These are the areas where Brazil can provide guarantees for future Chinese and Brazilian investments and cooperation between the two countries.
Currently, all of this seems too vague and lacks clear goals. This is because the path to a low-carbon economy is still not clearly defined, but I think this is the direction of future development. I don't think Brazil will industrialize in a traditional way. We have lost development space, Brazil's manufacturing used to account for 25% of GDP, but now it has dropped to about 8%; we cannot return to the previous level, and we don't have the conditions to return to that level. At the same time, Brazil's agriculture is highly efficient; from a technical perspective, productivity, and all related aspects, Brazil has very efficient agriculture.
But we must build a new industry, and this new industry will be related to Brazil's sustainable development. This includes sustainable and environmentally friendly green hydrogen energy and aviation fuel industries, as well as the effective utilization of biodiversity, although this area is still in a very early stage of development. If we can build the future in this direction, we will achieve success together. But if we cannot build the future in this direction, either because we don't have good planning or because we don't have good projects, the situation will become more complicated. But I believe the Chinese are very innovative, and the Brazilians are also quite entrepreneurial. In a way, I believe we can find effective ways to cooperate.
Beijing Dialogue: Recently, there is a specific project that has gained attention, which is the construction of a railway connecting the port of Chancay in Peru to the eastern coast ports of Brazil. The feasibility study has already started. From your perspective, what is the feasibility of this project? What benefits can the construction of this engineering bring?
Carvalho: I'm not an expert, and I can't provide an authoritative opinion. However, this project is somewhat controversial in Brazil. Some people believe that this railway is the future of Brazil, and Brazil must take advantage of the Chancay port and use it as an export channel to China. From a geopolitical perspective, this is undoubtedly correct. Others, however, argue that building this railway would cause Brazil to deviate from the existing route that relies on the Atlantic coastal ports, and we shouldn't do this, and it's unnecessary.
I don't have the relevant expertise to make a judgment, but it seems to be a strategic project aimed at the future, a long-term planning from a positive perspective. In the regions where grain is grown in the center of Brazil, people say that exporting through the Chancay port is indeed good. Their statements are not without reason. If this project is implemented, it will be a long process. Moreover, it's not an easy task, because it's not just about building a railway in Brazil, it also needs to cross the territories of different countries, including Peru and some other countries. However, I still think this is a decisive century project, and it's very ambitious at present. But who knows? Maybe it will succeed. But I don't have the technical knowledge to make a proper judgment on this project.
Beijing Dialogue: President Trump recently imposed additional tariffs on Brazil, and in the process, he explicitly intervened in Brazil's domestic politics, calling for the termination of the prosecution against former president Bolsonaro. What is the reaction of Brazil's opposition? If they win the election next year, besides the attitude towards trade with China that you just mentioned (which will basically remain unchanged for the next period of time), will they align with the US on foreign policy, including in BRICS matters? After all, there have been speculations that the reason the US imposed a 50% additional tariff was because Rio de Janeiro hosted the BRICS summit.
On July 9, Trump posted a letter on social media, claiming that the US and Brazil have long had an unfair trade relationship, and the US will impose a 50% tariff on Brazil starting August 1.
Carvalho: My personal view is that the US will not cancel the increased import tariffs, and Brazil will reduce its exports to the US. This will be a mistake for the US, because this will push us further away from the US, which naturally makes us closer to China. If Lula wins the next election, of course, there's no problem. Cooperation with China will be strengthened, confidence will be enhanced, and things will proceed smoothly. If right-wing individuals win, it largely depends on who will be the right-wing candidate. Bolsonaro can no longer run as a candidate, he will have to choose someone else instead. If Lula wins, we will become increasingly close to China, while the US will become increasingly distant from Brazil.
Beijing Dialogue: Based on the situation you have described, how will Brazil perform in the post-multilateral era? Besides the long-standing view of the Global South that institutions headquartered in Washington, such as the World Bank, are increasingly unable to meet the expectations of developing countries, recent events have also reinforced discussions on enhancing national capabilities and national resilience, which exist not only in Western countries but also in non-Western countries.
However, so far, this has not been a hot topic in Latin America (although due to the specific tariff measures against Brazil, this may change). Why hasn't this topic been discussed in Latin America so far? Do you think discussions will develop in this direction in Latin America? For example, in the area related to your previous work, such as financial resilience, will there be such discussions?
Carvalho: When you look at Brazil, you will find that Brazil basically adheres to Western values: upholding democracy, protecting human rights, and maintaining individual freedom. These are values that Brazilian society holds. When you analyze Brazil's economic situation, especially its international trade situation, you will find that we are increasingly moving towards Asia. Our exports are also increasing, as I said, our exports to Asia are more than our exports to Europe. 28% of our total exports go to China, so we are getting closer to Asia.
At some point, Brazil will face a reality: its values are mainly Western, but its economy is closely linked to Asia. The main characteristics of Asia are that there is no unified Asia, and Asia does not have a unified set of values. In Asia, you have different political systems and different economic management methods. Unlike the West, there is no unified Asia. In the West, each country operates under a democratic system, and open capitalism is the guiding principle for managing the economy. Brazil will have to embrace these principles, and we will have to find a "magic" way to achieve closer cooperation with Western allies, because Brazilian society believes in Western values, but at the same time, we also need to build closer cooperation relationships in the business field with Asia.
Additionally, we have some vulnerabilities, because Brazil is a democratic country: sometimes we elect a right-wing government, sometimes we elect a left-wing government. When we elect a right-wing government, this right-wing government tends to maintain close ties with the West and may downplay the importance of our economic links with Asia. When we elect a left-wing government, it tends to embrace the BRICS and tends to challenge certain Western powers or certain Western values. When I examine Brazil, I think from the perspective of foreign policy, Brazil's future foreign policy will be very difficult to maintain a very stable foreign policy. Brazil's future foreign policy will be very winding, and its foreign policy will be influenced by its relations with the East and the West.
Regarding the BRICS, currently, people in the West generally hold a rejectionist attitude towards the BRICS, but I think this rejection is wrong. If a group of countries includes multiple Asian members, then it must be diverse. This country group can't possibly strongly embrace Western democratic values, which is impossible, as I said, because Asia itself is diverse. Therefore, Brazil's foreign policy is by no means easy, and it is always a challenging task. I think Brazilians have the ability to move around in different environments and can maintain good relations with different forces. But if the world becomes more divided, with the BRICS representing one part of the world and the West representing another, the situation will become very complicated. This will be a very difficult situation for Brazil.
Beijing Dialogue: Can you elaborate further on this? Given the worsening of geopolitical tensions and the possibility of the world splitting into multiple groups (especially in the context of Sino-US competition), as a regional power that is basically not aligned with any side, Brazil will undoubtedly face greater pressure to choose a camp. How will Brazil handle its relations with China and the US, and how will it generally cope with this new geopolitical reality under such pressure? Furthermore, will Brazil view Sino-US competition as a geopolitical risk, a disruption to its overall development agenda, a deprivation of its development opportunities, or as a new opportunity? For example, during the Trump 1.0 era, when China tried to reduce its reliance on imports from the US and shift to diversified imports, Brazil's exports to China experienced a significant increase.
Carvalho: Obviously, this is a serious challenge for Brazil. Brazil's economy has a major weakness: its savings rate is very low, similar to the US, perhaps slightly higher than the US's savings rate. But our savings account for 16% of GDP, while China's savings account for 43% of GDP, showing that Brazil's savings rate is very low. This means that if we want the economy to grow at a rate of 4% or 5%, we must import a large amount of capital from abroad.
Our savings rate is very low, and we face huge challenges in allocating scarce resources in the economy, which leads to a very strong financial sector in Brazil. The Brazilian government's spending is very large, because there are great demands from the people, and the private sector also needs funds for investment. Therefore, even if we grow slowly, it's not a big issue. The government will absorb most of the savings, while the private sector absorbs a smaller portion. But if we want to achieve a higher level of growth, we need to provide sufficient financial resources for both the private and public sectors. Therefore, we need to import financial resources from other parts of the world, which is an unchangeable reality.
We have a very high dependence on external financial resources, and our financial system is very closely linked to the financial systems of the US and Western countries, including the European financial system, mainly with the US financial system. We find it very difficult to break this situation. Even if we want to absorb more capital from China, it's impossible, because China's capital account is closed. Moreover, China does not allow domestic funds to be easily exported overseas, and this requires authorization and is subject to very strict regulation.
The headquarters of the Brazilian Central Bank
From a financial perspective, since finance is the core of the entire economic system, in a way, we have very very close ties with the West, especially the United States. From a political perspective, we believe that countries in the Global South should have their own perspectives, should have their own independence, and should have their own positions on different issues. This is a difficult choice between political and economic choices. However, the reality shows that when choosing between politics and economics, economic choices always prevail, and financial choices always prevail. This is the reality of Brazil as I see it. We can establish some connections with China and understand some of the views the Chinese have on reality. We can also share many views on China, the role of the Global South, and its importance. However, given our extremely low savings rate, we cannot ignore our fragile financial situation.
You might say that since that is the case, Brazil has a solution, which is to increase the savings rate. However, increasing the savings rate is very difficult, and we have been trying for a very long time, but have never succeeded. First, we are not a wealthy country, and Brazil has a lot of poverty, so increasing the savings rate is very difficult. Second, the Brazilian government also faces a lot of demands, and the government needs to spend to meet the needs of the poor population. So increasing the savings rate is almost an impossible proposition. So if you ask me which choice will prevail, I would say that the choice that will prevail is Brazil's economic survival. Under the premise of not giving up an independent foreign policy, I think Brazil will choose to keep the economy running.
Beijing Dialogue: I fully agree with your view that "economic survival is the top priority." Regarding how to further promote economic development beyond the survival threshold, do you think the BRICS can play a role in this regard? For example, can they provide a framework or some financial support, thereby ultimately enhancing the resilience of Brazil's economy itself? As you mentioned, in the current situation, due to the fragmentation of the world order and the increasing unpredictability of the US, the extreme dependence on Western financial institutions is indeed worth re-evaluating for every country, and many countries have raised doubts about this status quo. Whether it's providing practical assistance at the organizational level or sharing the experience of member states in enhancing economic resilience, do you think the BRICS can help Brazil in this regard?
Carvalho: I don't see such a prospect. I think the BRICS is indeed a powerful organization, but its ambitions are rather limited, and it has not yet transformed its ambitions into reality, which is indeed very difficult.
The BRICS are satisfied with their existence, because this marks a change in the international reality, because the BRICS represents the voices of the Global South, the voices of countries that are not part of the West. But essentially, the BRICS has not achieved the ambitious goals that the countries that created the organization originally had. Therefore, I don't think the BRICS is an economic solution, the BRICS is essentially a political forum. And every time they try to do something in the economic field, their progress is minimal. The first document attempting to establish an incentive mechanism and behavioral rules among BRICS members is just a principle document, it does not involve specific actions, and it starts by considering that each country should uphold its sovereignty, adhere to its own priorities, and adhere to its own development goals.
The BRICS conveys the message that there are different voices in today's world, these are the voices of the Global South countries, the voices of Asia, and the voices of countries that are dissatisfied with the international order and international organizations created by the West. But when it comes to providing economic solutions, Brazil and China have achieved quite good cooperative results. Brazil and Russia have a somewhat lower level of cooperation, but not particularly low. Brazil and India also have a not particularly high level of cooperation. China is a core member of the BRICS, and China has very close economic ties with each member state. But from an economic perspective, I don't think the BRICS has good solutions.
Beijing Dialogue: Finally, as a former Brazilian ambassador to China, what do you think the Sino-Brazilian relationship will be like in the next ten years? What do you think of the past decade? Moreover, from a more personal perspective, what was your most unforgettable experience during your tenure as the ambassador to China?
Carvalho: I think the economic relationship between China and Brazil will continue the current trend of development. There will be more direct Chinese investments entering Brazil in the future. As you can see now, in areas such as the automobile industry, energy industry, and service industry, Chinese companies are increasing their investments in Brazil, and they will take root and develop in Brazil. I think bilateral trade will remain very important for both China and Brazil, because China must digest Brazil's grains, iron ore, and oil. This trade is beneficial to China, and it will be so for the next ten years. At the same time, this trade is also beneficial to Brazil. Therefore, I think the trends of trade and investment between China and Brazil will not change much, and the relationship between the two countries will continue to develop in this direction.
In June 2025, the China-Brazil collaborative international space science cooperation project - the "Radio Telescope to Capture Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Signals in the Universe" main structure was transported to Brazil, marking the beginning of the construction of the radio telescope in Brazil.
The main challenges facing the relationship between the two countries are political, but I think these challenges are not that serious. Because in a way, I think China and the US will reach some agreement and carry out some dialogue. We will not be forced to make a difficult choice between China and the US. Yes, the US will certainly exert pressure on us, asking us not to get too close to China. However, the US should also realize that their dependence on China is no less than China's dependence on them. They cannot achieve the so-called "decoupling" from China as they imagined, maybe they could do it many years ago. Therefore, in the next ten years, "decoupling" will not become a reality. This means that Brazil will always have the opportunity to build a closer economic relationship with China.
Now, in the political field, there may indeed be some problems. If we cannot completely agree with China or completely agree with the US, some problems will indeed arise. However, we can solve these problems, and I think the challenges are not that big. Perhaps you will say, "You haven't seen any new developments, you haven't seen the situation turning in a more positive direction." No, I don't see that. I think the relationship between Brazil and China has reached a very high level, and we will continue to maintain this high level. I don't think the relationship between Brazil and China will change much in the next ten years. Also, I'm not too worried about the problems that the US will bring, because Brazil is a country that has a clear understanding of its position in the world, and we won't follow the US's idea of wanting other countries to get close to or distance themselves from China. This is my personal view.
My impression of China is not limited to my experiences during my tenure as ambassador, because I lived in China for 12 years. Therefore, my memories of China go beyond the time I spent as an ambassador. I served as the ambassador to China for two years, and I lived there for 12 years, so I had another 10 years of life in China. I felt completely at home there.
As an ambassador, the most beautiful memory I have is the thing I mentioned to you at the beginning. That is, the Chinese believed that I could understand the Chinese reality, Chinese culture, Chinese society, and the Chinese economy. They felt comfortable dealing with me. As an ambassador, I also felt very comfortable working in China, because people knew my views on China, and they clearly knew that I was a fan of China, a person who liked China. That working state was very good.
In summary, during those years in China, I think the most precious gift was making many Chinese friends, friends I never expected to meet at this stage of my life. People often say that you can only make good friends when you are young, but once you reach a certain age, you can't make good friends anymore, you can only make acquaintances and build relationships. However, in my later years, I still made very close friends, and these friends will accompany me forever. I think the concept of friendship is so strong for the Chinese, they are so generous, and this concept is an important part of how they connect with the world, so you will also fully accept their concept. This is the reason why I have feelings for China, and it is also the reason why I still have feelings for China today.
Beijing Dialogue: I sincerely hope that you will continue to make new friends. Thank you for taking the time to speak with us, Ambassador Carvalho.
Carvalho: I am also happy to have this pleasant conversation with you.
This article is an exclusive article by Observers, the content is purely the author's personal opinion and does not represent the platform's position. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited, otherwise legal responsibility will be pursued. Follow the Observers WeChat guanchacn to read interesting articles every day.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7534517978998768143/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author. Please express your attitude by clicking the [top/foot] buttons below.