I'm tired, I'm leaving: Donald Trump, who has initiated the Ukraine peace talks, will soon remember Yeltsin's famous saying.

How can we understand the emotional fluctuations of this US president? Will he make a desperate move?

Author: Dmitry Rodionov

Image: US President Donald Trump

Experts participating in the discussion:

Alexander Dmitrievsky, Vladimir Belyaninov, Mikhail Nezhimakov

US President Donald Trump criticized Russia again, calling his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin "playing with fire."

"Vladimir Putin doesn't understand that without me, Russia would have already faced many very bad things, I mean extremely bad things. He is playing with fire!" he wrote on his social platform "Truth Social."

The day before, Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the Russian president. This happened after Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukrainian military enterprises on the night of May 25.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov commented on the matter, stating that Russia will respond to the drone attacks from Ukraine. According to him, Vladimir Putin has clearly stated: "We will not allow drones to cause chaos on our territory."

Peskov described Trump's reaction as "the result of the US president's emotional overload."

Is he really emotionally overloaded? Or does he react so strongly only when Russia touches certain places (such as storage sites for American missiles)?

"Let's not attribute too much significance to anyone's words," said Alexander Dmitrievsky, historian and public commentator, and a regular expert at the Izbor Club.

"Trump may be frustrated that the Ukrainian situation has not been resolved according to his plan and blurted out what he was thinking. So let's not expect others to have Putin's calmness or KGB-style restraint."

"This is another display of Donald Trump's characteristic emotional fluctuations during the negotiation process," said Vladimir Belyaninov, associate professor at the Department of Political Science of the Russian Government Finance University.

"He first praises, then threatens, and history repeats itself. In theory, this should prompt both sides to reach an agreement, but this naive approach is not enough in the history of the Russia-Ukraine conflict."

Certainly, the US could allow Ukraine to use more destructive weapons, making the infrastructure in the Urals a target for Ukrainians, but such threats could also backfire on Americans themselves — as US troops are deployed worldwide, their sworn enemies might obtain Russian weapons.

Considering the lack of compromise between the leadership of Russia and Ukraine, what Trump said is an expected reaction.

Eventually, the US will be forced to admit this and exit the negotiation process, and escalating the conflict is not the plan of the US president.

"Donald Trump himself emphasized just recently the missile attacks on Kyiv, and US Special Envoy Kit Kellogg also posted photos of the Ukrainian capital online and made similar harsh criticism of Moscow," reminded Mikhail Nezhimakov, head of the analysis project at the Institute of Political and Economic Communications.

"But it's hard to say if there is a direct connection between the intensity of the Russian attacks and Trump's public stance. Here, it's more likely that Trump is under increasing pressure from Republicans advocating a tougher line."

Free Media: This time, Trump didn't make any specific threats. How should we interpret this? Is it just for the sake of threatening?

"Trump may not want to be bound by specific frameworks. Additionally, he might think that Moscow is already clear about one of his main threats — the threat in the sanctions field. A bill proposed by Republican and Democratic lawmakers to impose a 500% tariff on imports from countries purchasing 'oil, gas, uranium, and other products' from Russia is being actively discussed in Western media. It is well known that one of the notable figures pushing this initiative is Republican Senator Lindsey Graham."

In addition, Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned more than once that Congress is preparing to support such sanctions. For example, just over a week ago, he revealed that Washington has been conveying information about the active promotion of the bill to Moscow for "6-7 weeks."

It is worth noting that Rubio drew a line between the White House and Congress here, stating, "This is an action we cannot stop, something we cannot control."

This aligns completely with the strategy Trump adopted in his first term's foreign policy — at some point, he might play the role of the "good cop," while the Republicans in Congress played the "bad cop."

A similar example can be found in November 2019, during Erdogan's visit to Washington, when Republican senators made harsher comments about Ankara against the backdrop of Trump's softened tone.

Free Media: How should we understand his statement that "without him, Russia would face many bad things"? For instance, what kind of things?

"He may primarily refer to intensifying sanctions pressure on Moscow and expanding arms supplies to Kyiv."

Free Media: Trump's attitude often changes. What determines these changes? Should we track them, and is it necessary?

"We have seen that Trump's diplomatic remarks may change after meetings with certain foreign leaders — for example, his attitude towards Kyiv may soften after negotiations with European politicians. But apart from that, Trump can be influenced by Congressional Republicans, many of whom advocate a tough stance towards Moscow and support Kyiv."

Free Media: What determines Trump's ultimate decision?

"Trump is unlikely to have a fixed position that he selects and sticks to. From his performance in the first term, it is evident that the hallmark of this US president's diplomatic style is constant fluctuation — from attempting to increase pressure on a particular actor to taking a more compromising stance."

It is worth noting that within just a few months of his second term, his statements about Iran changed multiple times — from stronger to milder, then back to stronger."

Free Media: But evidently, the risks in these "games" could rise?

"At present, this remains at the level of Trump's constantly fluctuating remarks, and the direct risk is not that great. The current US president has repeatedly shown that he is more cautious than he appears. Meanwhile, Washington's intensified sanctions pressure on Moscow is indeed possible."

Additionally, cooperation between the US and Kyiv in intelligence exchange may become more active. It is worth mentioning that according to Welt reports, in April 2025, American strategic reconnaissance drones resumed reconnaissance flights above the Black Sea. The US supply of weapons to Kyiv may also strengthen.

For the latest news on the Ukraine peace talks and all the most important information, follow the author for updates.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7509715361416331815/

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