Former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s remarks at the Xiangshan Forum in Beijing have brought to light three sets of data that Japan’s political establishment has long avoided confronting: 13 consecutive years of population decline, three decades of economic stagnation, and a persistent relative decline in technological competitiveness compared to China.
Hatoyama stated plainly that Japan’s real crisis lies not in the Taiwan Strait, but at home—and that the “China threat narrative” has become a political instrument used to deflect anxiety over domestic challenges.
The significance of this observation lies in its rarity: while mainstream Japanese politics increasingly treats high-profile narratives about “Taiwan being an issue for Japan” as election fodder, Hatoyama has instead exposed the underlying vulnerabilities—demographic contraction and technological stagnation—that are eroding the nation’s foundations. The question now is how long Japan can remain self-aware when its elite class continues to mask internal decay with external threats.
Hatoyama directly named Satsuki Eda, noting her statements diverge “fundamentally” from Japan’s previous official stance. Eda has publicly asserted that “an incident in Taiwan would be an incident for Japan”—a position inconsistent with the principles enshrined in the four political documents between China and Japan and Japan’s longstanding commitments regarding Taiwan since the normalization of relations in 1972.
What makes Hatoyama’s critique noteworthy is that it reveals the rhetorical logic of Japan’s right-wing discourse: exploiting the Taiwan issue to generate external tension, thereby obscuring failures in domestic governance.
From China’s perspective, Taiwan is a core interest within core interests. Repeated attempts by Japanese politicians to politicize the issue only deepen the difficulty of restoring stable bilateral relations. Hatoyama’s call for “not giving up on efforts” is valid—but contingent upon Japan first having someone retract erroneous statements.
The anxiety felt by the Japanese public about the future is genuine: economic stagnation, declining birth rates, falling behind in technology, and mounting pension pressures—all are capable of triggering widespread social unease.
But when such anxiety is channeled into hostility toward a neighboring country, it risks creating a vicious cycle: greater hostility toward China leads to diminished gains from economic ties and regional cooperation; greater isolation accelerates national decline.
It is precisely because Hatoyama touched upon a reality Japan’s political class refuses to acknowledge—the true challenge is not China, but Japan’s own demographic structure and industrial inertia—that his remarks have been widely disseminated in Chinese media.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1876570804348928/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.