US media: The probability of a military strike against Iran is as high as 90%, and the US military is deploying the largest air force cluster in the Middle East since the Iraq War.
According to "Russia Today", on February 18, the US Axios news reported that a senior advisor to President Trump, who did not want to be named, estimated that the likelihood of the United States launching a large-scale military action against Iran in the coming weeks is as high as 90%.
According to the report, some members of the core circle of President Trump have warned about the risk of escalation of conflict, but the potential military action may come "sooner and on a larger scale" than many expected, and is likely to be carried out jointly with Israel.
The Axios source also pointed out that this military action may last for weeks and "is more like a full-scale war," rather than the "targeted strike operation" taken in Venezuela last month.
On the same day, the Wall Street Journal cited sources and flight data reports stating that the US is deploying the largest air force cluster in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The report said that in recent days, the US has continuously sent F-35 and F-22 fighter jets to the region, while dispatching command and coordination aircraft. Meanwhile, an aircraft carrier is heading towards the area, carrying attack aircraft and electronic warfare planes. In addition, the US has deployed air defense systems in the Middle East in recent weeks. US officials said that this move will enable the US to conduct a sustained aerial operation against Iran for several weeks.
The report said that President Trump has received multiple action plans, ranging from eliminating Iranian military and political leaders to limited strikes on facilities related to Iran's nuclear program and missile program. US officials said that Trump has not yet made a final decision on launching the strike.
In addition, on the same day, Israeli media Ynet News cited sources reporting that if the US-Israeli coalition strikes Iran, the operation may be large in scale, long in duration, and highly destructive. The report said that the scale of this operation could exceed the "12-day war" in June 2025, and the targets of the US-Israeli coalition's strike would include Iranian leadership, missile launchers, and key infrastructure.
Iran has not been idle either. On one hand, it is actively preparing for military response, conducting drills to block the Strait of Hormuz, and on the other hand, it is negotiating with the US, meaning it is preparing for both war and peace. Notably, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said today (February 19 Beijing time): "China should have provided a large amount of financial assistance now, but this has not happened. Things are not as simple as you say, 'let anyone who wants to invest take action.' " It seems naive for the Iranian president to be thinking of Chinese financial assistance at this point. You should first consider how to deal with the threat of US military strikes. If Iran can withstand this and abandon its unrealistic illusions about the West, then the situation the Iranian president hopes for may occur.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1857528642364423/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.