[Source/Author: Guancha Observer Columnist Masood Khalid]

India and Pakistan are once again on the brink of heightened tensions. The current standoff began on April 22 following a terrorist attack in the Pahalgam region of Jammu and Kashmir, the Indian-occupied territory, which resulted in the death of 26 civilians, most of whom were tourists.

An unknown organization called "Resistance Front" initially claimed responsibility for the attack but later denied it according to subsequent reports.

"India has been preparing to cut off water supplies to Pakistan for some time."

Interestingly, within an hour after this tragic incident, Indian authorities and media began blaming Pakistan. Calls for revenge and war fever quickly escalated.

India announced several punitive measures against Pakistan: reducing diplomatic staff, suspending visa issuance, closing the Wagah-Attari border crossing, expelling Pakistani citizens, and more seriously, unilaterally terminating the Indus Waters Treaty, which has survived through various wars and conflicts between India and Pakistan.

Figure: The Jhelum River in Pakistan. Source: PTI

The treaty was signed in 1960 under the mediation of the World Bank, clearly stipulating the rights and responsibilities of both parties regarding the Indus River system. Pakistan was granted rights to the western three rivers, while India was given rights to the eastern three rivers. The treaty also established the Permanent Indus Commission to resolve disputes, which holds annual meetings. Since Pakistan is a downstream country, its economy and agriculture are entirely dependent on continuous water supply from India.

Although there is no conclusive evidence yet, all signs indicate that India has been preparing to cut off water supplies to Pakistan for some time. For example, recently, India requested renegotiating and revising the treaty, refused to convene the annual meeting of the Indus Commission, and Prime Minister Modi openly threatened that "blood and water cannot coexist." Within 48 hours after the Pahalgam incident, India formally notified Pakistan of the termination of the treaty - which violates the treaty's regulations as neither party has the right to take such unilateral actions. An Indian minister even claimed that the government was formulating plans to divert or restrict water supplies to Pakistan.

In response to India's actions, Pakistan has clearly stated that any attempt to cut off its water sources will be considered "an act of war." Moreover, Pakistan has taken countermeasures against India: closing airspace, reducing Indian diplomatic personnel, halting bilateral trade, closing borders, and warning of potential suspension of the 1972 Simla Agreement.

Pakistan strongly condemned the April 22 attack and denied involvement, proposing a fair and transparent international investigation to uncover the truth. In diplomatic communications with the UN Secretary-General, the Security Council's five permanent members, and other important countries, Pakistan repeatedly emphasized this position. However, over a week has passed since the incident, and India has neither provided evidence implicating Pakistan nor agreed to a neutral investigation. Instead, it has intensified control line (LOC) cross-border activities under the framework of the ceasefire agreement reached in 2021, leading to ongoing clashes between the two sides' armies. If the situation spirals out of control, it may trigger larger-scale conflicts.

Root Causes of the Crisis: Growing Discontent Among the Population in Indian-Occupied Kashmir

The root cause of the current crisis lies in the growing disaffection among the population in Indian-controlled Kashmir, especially since India blatantly violated United Nations Security Council resolutions (recognizing Kashmir as a disputed territory) in 2019 by illegally annexing the regions of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh into the Union. By abolishing Article 370 of the Constitution, India effectively stripped the region of its special status, imposed military lockdowns, and detained thousands of people.

Since 2019, India has intensified its control over the region, suppressed local resistance movements, and systematically altered the demographic structure. India consistently refuses to engage in peace talks with Pakistan or representatives of Kashmir, provoking widespread resentment, particularly among young people in Kashmir.

On April 29, soldiers in Srinagar, the capital of Indian-administered Kashmir, increased security after a shooting incident. IC Photo

The Pahalgam incident was essentially a rebellion against India's tyranny and had spontaneous local characteristics - it would have been impossible for terrorists to infiltrate such a heavily guarded occupied area. This exposed significant failures in India's security and intelligence systems, which attempted to shift blame onto Pakistan.

Some analysts believe that India's deep state may have orchestrated this event to achieve certain strategic goals. Pakistan has obtained solid evidence proving that India has carried out subversive activities in Pakistan, including capturing Indian officers and their agents engaged in sabotage in Balochistan, a key node of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Indian leaders insist that Jammu and Kashmir are "inseparable territories" of India and threaten to occupy Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. The mass arrests, house-to-house searches, demographic transformation, and election manipulation implemented after the abolition of Article 370 have created new confrontations in this disputed territory - the people of Kashmir are rising up in resistance, with young people becoming the main force in this new resistance movement. They fear that India will manipulate so-called "referendums" to legitimize its rule by altering the population majority to minority through systematic operations.

India's policies are pushing South Asia toward dangerous ground: relations between India and Pakistan are at an impasse, relations with China remain tense, and other South Asian neighbors are deeply concerned about India's policies. Since India boycotted Pakistan’s hosting of the SAARC summit in 2016, the organization has been effectively defunct. Due to the failure to improve relations between the two major regional powers, South Asia has now become one of the least integrated regions economically. Climate change threatens the survival of all South Asian countries, yet the lack of dialogue mechanisms prevents it from becoming a regional issue.

Regrettably, this nuclear-armed region of South Asia is once again on the brink of conflict, with devastating consequences if it occurs. Although India is a major power, it lacks the necessary magnanimity. In the event of a conflict, South Asia will fall deeper into poverty and suffering. It is time to set aside arrogance and self-importance and return to reason and reconciliation.

If India genuinely seeks regional peace, it should abandon its belligerent posture and ease tensions by agreeing to engage in dialogue with Pakistan and the people of Kashmir to resolve the Kashmir dispute through political means. India itself submitted the Kashmir issue to the United Nations Security Council in the past and promised a referendum to allow the people of Kashmir to decide their own fate. What now prevents it from seeking a satisfactory solution to win the much-needed peace and development for South Asia?

The international community should support credible and lasting peace processes between India and Pakistan. If the reign of terror continues in the Jammu and Kashmir region, the people of Kashmir will not remain silent. If Pakistan's lifeline or territorial integrity is threatened, it will not sit idly by either.

Masood Khalid

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