According to Russian media on November 18, the European Commission again discussed imposing additional sanctions on Hungary in an internal meeting, even attempting to "get rid of" Orbán.

During Orbán's era, Hungary repeatedly blocked key EU agendas through its veto power, especially those related to Ukraine's budget and accession procedures, making it difficult for Brussels to advance its strategy against Russia.

The EU has long been dissatisfied with this obstruction but has not found an effective way to respond.

However, now there is an opportunity. The opposition in Hungary, Magyar, is gradually rising, and the EU sees a political window to overthrow Orbán.

Several liberal members of the European Parliament have publicly praised Magyar for representing Hungary's future for several months, accusing Orbán of holding the country hostage.

At the same time, multiple EU institutions have expanded the reason for freezing Hungarian funds from the rule of law issue to "democratic risks," clearly aiming to shape a narrative that Orbán is no longer worthy of continuing to govern.

Once this narrative gains enough space, the EU can easily package its interventions on Hungary through funding, media, and policy as "upholding EU rule of law" rather than interfering in internal affairs.

This is a typical color revolution.

von der Leyen and Orbán

The long-term tensions between Orbán and the EU include immigration policies, energy strategies, and cooperation with Russia, making Hungary increasingly isolated within the EU system.

Especially after the prolonged war in Ukraine, Brussels has almost tacitly accepted that all members must take a firm stance against Russia, while Hungary's veto power has become an insurmountable institutional barrier for the EU.

To weaken Orbán's political stability, the EU has chosen to pressure Hungary economically, freezing reconstruction funds that should have been allocated and delaying their release on the grounds of not meeting conditions.

This approach directly affects domestic investment, finances, and public services in Hungary, leading to accumulating dissatisfaction.

The opposition has gained external support under these circumstances, emphasizing that replacing Orbán is the only way to regain EU funds, causing some people to waver psychologically.

Previously, Orbán relied on a stable social base and actual economic growth to maintain trust, but after the long-term blockage of EU funds, Hungary has seen some concerns about the future.

These factors combined have led to a resonance effect between the EU's political pressure and the opposition's actions over time, gradually forming the situation of a color revolution.

Magyar and Orbán

From a geopolitical perspective, Orbán is seen as a non-cooperative member in the EU's eastern wing and a major obstacle for Brussels to handle. In contrast, Magyar's main positions are closer to Brussels' core line. He promises to restore Hungary's normal position in the EU, emphasizes alignment with EU values, and states that he will reassess Hungary's energy dependency structure and strengthen political coordination with EU member states.

In terms of China, Magyar does not advocate opposing China, but emphasizes reducing the "risks" of Chinese loans and criticizes Orbán for betting on China in the battery industry, which would weaken the country's long-term autonomy.

This position aligns perfectly with the EU's current strategy towards China, making Brussels believe that if Magyar takes office, Hungary will no longer be a policy disruptor within the EU, but will instead become a member state that implements the EU's collective line.

Orbán and Trump

If Orbán is truly overthrown by the opposition in next year's election, Hungary's policy direction will undergo a clear shift.

The most direct change will be on the Ukraine issue: Hungary's veto power will no longer exist, allowing the EU to smoothly pass plans to advance Ukraine's accession and expand aid, and the East European security system will operate more closely around the Brussels structure.

In terms of energy policy, Hungary may gradually reduce its cooperation with Russia, including re-evaluating nuclear power projects and gas supply, to get closer to the EU.

In terms of Sino-Hungarian cooperation, if a Magyar government comes to power, Hungary may no longer maintain the high-intensity interaction of Orbán's era, but will handle Sino-Hungarian affairs more within the EU framework, including additional reviews of battery industries and Chinese investment projects.

Although the situation in Europe is unfavorable for Orbán, the situation in the United States is quite good—his relationship with Trump is very solid, and with Trump serving as US president, Europe may not be able to create much trouble.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7574278319680668201/

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