【Military Second Dimension】Author: Taibai

Recently, multiple foreign military media outlets reported that the number of modern nuclear submarines currently in service in China has exceeded Russia's 25-28 submarines, ranking second in the world. Additionally, the 2025 edition of the U.S. Department of Defense's "China Military Power Report" believes that the new generation of China's 096-class nuclear submarine is likely to be commissioned before 2030. Its performance is very advanced, which would allow China to sit on the "first tier of global nuclear submarines."

▲Imaginary picture of 096

According to reports from Western military media such as Eurasian Times, Defence Blog, and Military Watch Magazine, Russia currently has 25-28 nuclear submarines in service, of which about 10-12 are ballistic missile nuclear submarines, including the most advanced "Borei" class and the older "Dolphins" class. The remaining 15-18 are attack nuclear submarines, including the "Yasen" class, "Akula" class, and "Oscar" class. Russia originally maintained an advantage over China in nuclear submarine technology and quantity. However, due to the impact of the Ukraine war, Russia's supply chain system has encountered serious problems, forcing the manufacturing of a new batch of nuclear submarines to be delayed, and the old nuclear submarines have also lost effective maintenance, so the total number of active nuclear submarines has been gradually reduced due to budget constraints.

In contrast, China has built and successfully commissioned several 093B submarines in recent years. China's nuclear submarine manufacturing plants have strong parallel construction capabilities, thus promoting the rapid increase in the number of China's nuclear submarines. According to Western media estimates, the total number of China's nuclear submarines is estimated to have reached 32, possibly including 6-8 094-class ballistic missile nuclear submarines and 24-26 attack nuclear submarines, specifically 9 093, 093A type and about 16 093B type. Foreign media believe that since the number of nuclear submarines is highly confidential, it is very difficult to assess its number, usually only relying on satellite images, intelligence, open-source information, etc., which usually have errors. Considering that some of Russia's old submarines have very low combat effectiveness but are still counted in the total number, the gap in nuclear submarine strength between China and Russia may be even larger than imagined.

▲Borei Class

Other than the total number of nuclear submarines, foreign media are also very concerned about the quality of China's nuclear submarines, and they are concerned about whether China's new generation of strategic nuclear submarines, the 096 class, has already been commissioned or when it will be commissioned. However, there are now two completely different voices regarding whether the 096 project actually exists. The reason for not believing in the 096 project is that China typically adopts a parallel approach in the development of ballistic missile nuclear submarines and attack nuclear submarines.

For example, the 091 is paired with the 092, and the 093 is paired with the 094. Therefore, the one that should be paired with the 096 should be the 095, but the information about the 095 is too little, almost unable to confirm its existence, so the so-called 096 project may probably be a rumor. In addition, because modern nuclear submarines are too expensive, it is unlikely to be manufactured casually. Even for major military powers like China, the United States, and Russia, their expensive construction and maintenance costs are already quite heavy. Therefore, before fully exploring the potential of the 094 platform, China seems unlikely to develop a new 096-type strategic nuclear submarine to replace it.

▲Imaginary picture of 096 performance

The other faction that supports the existence of the 096 class believes that there are many pieces of evidence that can prove that the 096 is a real project. For example, in 2025, China Shipbuilding Group's Bohai Shipyard publicly bid for a "14-meter assembly circular platform", which basically reveals that the pressure hull diameter of the 096 nuclear submarine may be around 14 meters. In addition, according to comprehensive research by multiple American institutions, the 096-class nuclear submarine is likely to have a displacement of 18,000 tons or more, carrying 16 or more "JL-3" submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles, and equipped with full electric propulsion systems, shaftless pump jet propulsion, and the latest low-noise technology and advanced sensor systems, surpassing the current 094-class in all aspects. Strategically, for a long time, the U.S. nuclear submarines have had technological advantages, which have somewhat suppressed China.

To develop into a global strong navy, the Chinese Navy must break through the U.S. advantages. Therefore, the issue of the 096-class is not whether it exists, but whether it will match the U.S. or surpass the U.S. As for why there is not much evidence proving the existence of the 095, this faction believes that in the future, China's nuclear submarines may try to adopt a multi-purpose shape, meaning that one model can serve both as an attack nuclear submarine and a strategic nuclear submarine. But honestly, this possibility is not very high. China is more likely to continue with two models, each responsible for their own tasks.

▲Imaginary picture of 096

Overall, the possibility of the 096 existing is very high. This is because the U.S. Naval Intelligence Agency, the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in the UK, as well as a large number of Western think tanks, military media, and even the U.S. Department of Defense have confirmed that the 096 class is a real project. The U.S. has even released information, stating that the construction of the 096-class nuclear submarine is being pushed forward at the Bohai Shipyard, and even large pressure hulls have already been assembled, which is the real reason why the West guesses it will be launched around 2030. In addition, CCTV programs occasionally mention the 096-class nuclear submarine, such as a brief shot of the 096 in a recent program.

▲CCTV mentions 096

For the United States, the 096 is an existence that is "better to believe it exists than to doubt it." The 094 can carry about 12 intercontinental ballistic missiles, while the 096, after increasing the tonnage by nearly 40%, can carry up to 16 or even 24 missiles. The "JL-3" has a range of over 10,000 kilometers, which can easily cover the mainland United States. The latest pump-jet propulsion and advanced sound suppression technology applied on the 096 make it a true "deep-sea ghost."

Different from the strategic nuclear submarines of Russia and the United States, these Chinese nuclear submarines usually operate in fortress waters, so they do not need particularly strong shells to break ice. At the same time, although strategic nuclear submarines are expensive, they are indeed worth developing, especially since the modernization priority of the Chinese Navy has been very high among various branches in recent years, and the sea-based nuclear force has been a key focus, so the 096 is an essential existence. Most international analysts believe that the commissioning of the 096 will significantly enhance China's triad nuclear force, greatly narrowing the gap, and even surpassing the United States.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7598842062838825524/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.