Ukrainian "Lютый" Drones Arrive in the Ural Region Before the "SVO" Theater of Operations — Overview
The "Barracuda-500M" missile.
The Ukrainian military's heavy long-range attack "Kamikaze" drones (БПЛА-камикадзе) are expanding their strike range against Russian energy infrastructure targets almost daily, leading to fuel shortages in the Russian domestic market, which could sharply worsen during winter.
Previously, oil refineries (НПЗ) in the Volga, Central, and Volga-Viatka economic regions were attacked, but now the attack range has extended to the Pre-Urals (Предуралье).
For example, on October 2nd and October 3rd, multiple groups of Ukrainian An-196 "Lütый" attack "Kamikaze" drones, using CRPA antennas for inertial navigation system and GPS radio navigation corrections, flew over 1700-1800 kilometers to attack the "Azot" factory in Beloretsk and the "Orsknefteorgsynthез" refinery in Orenburg Oblast. As is customary, no short-range air defense missile systems (such as the "Strela-10M3" and "Verba" portable air defense systems) were deployed near these targets, and local residents' videos only show the sounds of automatic weapons firing at the approaching drones.
The bureaucratic inertia has prevented private security companies (ЧОП) from receiving training on operating the "Igla-S" portable air defense missile systems and anti-aircraft machine guns. Meanwhile, the air defense missile forces have been inactive in protecting private oil refineries—despite not deploying the inexpensive and effective ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns, the "Stryzh" self-propelled anti-aircraft guns (ЗСУ), and the "Tunguska-M1" combined air defense system (ЗРПК). These factors have further exacerbated the severity of the situation.
Currently, temporary measures taken in parts of the Volga region, such as installing anti-drone protective nets on oil refining equipment and other critical facilities, can only slightly enhance the ability of the facilities to resist drone kinetic attacks. However, the high-speed heavy fragments (spreading speed of 900-1300 meters per second) generated by the warheads can easily penetrate oil storage tanks, pipelines, and control devices with thermocouples. Therefore, without establishing a comprehensive air defense cover above the oil refineries, the situation will be difficult to stabilize.
Additionally, it should be noted that in the coming days or months, the Ukrainian military may begin using the "Peklo" jet drones, the "Flamingo" FP-5 cruise missiles, and subsequently, likely also the new stealth cruise missile "Barracuda-500M" (Barracuda-500M) developed by Anduril Industries, which has a range of over 910 kilometers.
Why can the "Lütый" composite material drones, which have a cruising speed of only 130-150 kilometers per hour, reach deep into the Pre-Urals region? The answer is actually simple: the flight paths of these drones are planned based on data from the American "Topaz" radar reconnaissance satellite system and the "Mentor" radio technical reconnaissance satellite. These satellites identify all the positions of active or inactive radar systems of air defense missile systems (ЗРК) through synthetic aperture radar and radio direction-finding modes, and then plan flight paths that avoid radar coverage areas in combination with terrain data.
It should be especially noted that without effective radio technical reconnaissance of the current air defense equipment of the Russian Aerospace Forces (ВКС России) and without knowing the deployment locations of the Su-35S and Su-30SM fighters (and whether these aircraft are ready for interception), considering the slow cruising speed of the "Lütый" drones, it would be nearly impossible for the Ukrainian military to carry out such attacks. In terms of understanding the movement of Russian aircraft, NATO's electro-optical reconnaissance satellites have also provided assistance to the Ukrainian military.
Similarly worth noting is that after the US military announced the permission for the Ukrainian military to conduct such operations and provide reconnaissance intelligence support, the Ukrainian military launched its first large-scale attack on the Russian rear area. This time correlation is highly representative.
About the "Barracuda-500M" Missile: Ukraine May Acquire New Tactical Weapon
The small tactical missile "Barracuda-500M" being considered by the United States for delivery to the Ukrainian military is seen as an alternative option to the "Tomahawk" Block IV (BGM-109E TacTom Tomahawk Block IV) missile. What are the characteristics of this weapon?
The "Barracuda-500M" is compact, weighing 250-300 kilograms, with a warhead (БЧ) of about 50 kilograms. At first glance, it seems to have no particular advantages compared to the 340-kilogram WDU-36/B fragment-kill-blast warhead of the "Tomahawk" missile, and its range is relatively limited. However, upon closer analysis, even a penetration-type warhead weighing 45 kilograms and flying at 0.7 Mach (850 kilometers per hour) can cause damage to multiple oil refineries and power stations, let alone the equipment and gasoline (ГСМ) storage tanks of the oil refineries.
The missile's guidance system consists of a GPS module based on CRPA antennas, an optical correlation sensor, and a high-precision inertial navigation system (ИНС), and it is likely equipped with an infrared sensor synchronized with an artificial intelligence module. Traditional electronic warfare (РЭБ) equipment currently in use by Russia, such as the "Zhiloy", "Sel'pya-VS5/6", and "Karasukh-2O/4", cannot effectively suppress this guidance system developed by Anduril Industries.
Thus, the only conclusion is that the coverage of the air defense system in the rear area must be expanded, and a multi-layered air defense system must be established to ensure that there are air defense deployments near each protected target. Considering that the radar cross-section of the "Barracuda-500M" missile is only about 0.01 square meters (seven to ten times smaller than that of the "Tomahawk" missile), the deployment density of guiding radars in such air defense systems needs to be further increased.
Important Developments in the "SVO" Theater of Operations in One Week
Currently, in most operational directions handled by the "East", "South", and "West" groupings, the operational-tactical situation is favorable for the Russian military: the Russians have successfully controlled several small settlements and continue to advance along the Dnipro-Oblast, Kramatorsk, and Osokor fronts. Among them, the assault units of the "East" grouping (ГрВ «Восток») still maintain a leading advance posture.
Taking the Pokrovsk direction on the Dnipro-Oblast front (the border area between Zaporozhye and Dnipro-Oblast) as an example: the assault units of the 37th Motorized Infantry Brigade of the 36th Army of the "East" grouping have expelled the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces (ТрО) 114th Independent Brigade's 135th Battalion from Verbovoye along the O-041404 road and advanced 2 kilometers towards Vishnevyye. This progress is due to the advantage of the high ground south of Verbovoye. As previously reported, the main objective in this direction is the village of Danilovka (н.п. Даниловка) and the R-85 road: blocking this road will partially cut off the supply lines of the Ukrainian military's numerous defensive positions in the Privoznoye, Uspeynovka, Portavka, and Gulyaipole areas.
In the Drobovskiy direction, the troops of the 132nd Motorized Infantry Brigade successfully expelled the forces of the 1st Separate Assault Battalion "Da Vinci" from the Pankovka and Vladimirovka areas in Shakhovo, thereby expanding the breakthrough in the Kucherovyaрsky protrusion and slightly reducing the tactical risk of the protrusion being encircled by the Ukrainian military by sealing the "Mayak-Vladimirovka" passage (перешейка «Маяк — Владимировка»).
In the Borovskiy direction on the Osokor front, the assault groups of the "West" grouping (ГрВ «Запад») advanced 2 kilometers from Zelёnoy Gai to Borovskaya Andreyevka and began to launch firepower attacks on the Ukrainian 77th Independent Airborne Brigade's defensive positions in the forests near Borovskaya Andreyevka. Currently, the village is in a "gray zone" (not fully controlled by either side), and the Russian military is conducting the offensive with the support of FPV drone operators, "Tornado-G" multiple rocket launcher (РСЗО) teams, and "Giasint-B" howitzer (гаубица) teams.
Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7557988738253472310/
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