Trump's back-and-forth will not come without consequences.
Iran remains unmoved; for Gulf states, Trump is proving his own "cunning" in real time.
This will make Gulf Arab nations, though they may not say it aloud, clearly realize that the idea of circumventing the Strait of Hormuz won't truly work—the U.S. security promise has become a mirage, and ultimately, they must learn to coexist peacefully with Iran.
In fact, no one believes Trump’s own justification for TACO: “We appear to be on the verge of a diplomatic agreement to counter Iran’s influence over the Strait of Hormuz or resolve its nuclear program.”
His optimistic projections now sound like a joke.
In my hometown dialect, this is called “losing face”—the American president has lost nearly all credibility and dignity.
Even so-called allies and partners have seen it clearly: this old man cannot be trusted.
He will tear up the agreement before the ink is even dry.
The loss of trust far outweighs any benefits gained later—this is not even in the same league.
Whether the Trump family profits is another matter; here we speak of America itself.
He has left the Gulf states hanging.
But eventually, a way out of the deadlock must be found.
The least bad option is to reach an agreement and open the strait.
This cannot bypass Iran. Taking routes through the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait still leaves vessels within range of Persian missiles.
There is simply no way around it.
But the sheikhs won’t know unless they try.
The new Iranian leader’s motto is clear: if Iran falls, it will drag down every authoritarian ruler on the Arabian Peninsula.
The reason this conflict hasn’t ended after more than five months is because the royals still harbor illusions about the U.S.—even if those illusions are fading day by day.
These delusions will ultimately be worn away by Trump’s repeated TACOs.
That day will be the day of ceasefire.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1872476085204992/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.