Advancing into the Post-Soviet Space: The Struggle for Armenia in the South Caucasus
Russia has a strong influence in the post-Soviet space, especially in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. In these regions, Russia's influence is even greater, and resistance is expected to be less.
The most notable case this year is Armenia. The parliamentary elections scheduled for June provide an opportunity for election manipulation, creating chaos and unrest. Armenia may currently be the main thorn in Russia's side in the former Soviet region. Some Russian propagandists have already called for a "special military operation" similar to the invasion of Ukraine in Armenia. The "Trump International Peace and Prosperity Route" (TRIPP) project, which connects the mainland of Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan exclave and extends through Armenian territory to Turkey (originally known as the Zangazur Corridor, editor's note), poses a significant strategic challenge to both Russia and Iran.
On January 13, 2026, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan announced the framework for implementing the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights Agreement (TIF) after their meeting in Washington. Subsequently, U.S. Vice President John Dean Vance visited Armenia and Azerbaijan, emphasizing the strategic level of cooperation between the two countries.
Although Russia has not publicly opposed the project, this level of U.S. involvement in the South Caucasus contradicts Russia's strategic interests. Russia still has considerable influence over Armenia: it has a military base in Gyumri and controls important strategic assets, including Armenia's railway system and energy infrastructure. Russia also has powerful soft power tools to influence Armenian elections.
American interests in the resource-rich Central Asia determine its leadership in the Black Sea-Caspian connectivity area. A strategy focusing on targeted diplomacy, infrastructure development, and security cooperation can balance Russia's residual influence without requiring large-scale U.S. involvement. The U.S. has already taken some proactive measures. The TRIPP project is a strong signal, inviting Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to participate in the 2026 Miami G20 Summit is another move to enhance the region's global importance.
The next step should be to expand the political scope of TRIPP, building on the TRIPP and "C5+1" (Central Asian Five Plus) initiative, covering the entire Black Sea-Caspian connectivity region, including energy, minerals, fertilizers, data, and related areas.
The core mission of U.S. policy is to turn Russia's current losses into a lasting strategic reality while preparing for long-term strategic competition in Europe and Eurasia, including establishing institutions, alliances, and industrial and infrastructure foundations.
Source: The National Interest
Author: Mamuka Tsereteli
Date: February 13, Washington time
Original: toutiao.com/article/1857361841253444/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.