【By Observer Group, Xiong Chaoran】On January 15th local time, Japanese Foreign Minister Masuda Shigeki will be in Manila, the capital of the Philippines, which is one of the stops on his nine-day diplomatic visit to the Middle East and Asia, starting from January 10th. He has already visited Israel, Palestine, Qatar, and India.

Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported on January 12 that Masuda Shigeki will meet with Philippine Foreign Minister Lazaro, and the talks are expected to review the latest progress under the framework of the "Enhanced Strategic Partnership" established between Japan and the Philippines ten years ago. Analysts said that given the Philippines' role as the ASEAN rotating chair this year, the South China Sea issue has become the top agenda item, and the talks may focus on the issue of the Philippine side promoting the formulation of a "binding" Code of Conduct for the South China Sea.

In fact, during the East Asia Summit held in Malaysia last year, Japan had already commented on the South China Sea issue. At that time, Masuda Shigeki claimed that Japan was "seriously concerned" about the rising tensions, called on all parties to resolve disputes peacefully, and hyped up the so-called 2016 South China Sea arbitration ruling.

In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning previously pointed out that the so-called "South China Sea arbitration case" was a political farce disguised as law, aimed at disturbing the South China Sea and profiting from it. The so-called ruling is illegal, invalid, and has no binding force. China has never accepted or recognized it from the beginning. The Asia-Pacific is a highland of cooperation and development, not a chessboard for geopolitical games. Group politics and bloc confrontation will not bring peace and security, and are not conducive to the stability of the Asia-Pacific and the world.

Japanese Foreign Minister Masuda Shigeki IC Photo

Analysts believe that Masuda Shigeki's visit indicates that Japan hopes the Philippines, as this year's ASEAN rotating chair, will prioritize so-called "maritime security issues" on the ASEAN agenda.

Abedul Rahman Yaacob, a non-resident researcher at the Australian National University and a security analyst, said: "For Manila, there will be challenges in seizing its interests in the South China Sea without resistance during its tenure as the rotating chair."

He pointed out that ASEAN is facing many problems, including border tensions between Cambodia and Thailand, the ongoing crisis in Myanmar, and how to deal with the Sino-US tension. "According to my contacts with Philippine officials, I know that Manila understands this situation and is trying to strike a balance between its strategic and security concerns and those of other ASEAN members," he added.

At the same time, Japan also hopes that the Philippines will play a leading role in advancing the long-standing, unresolved negotiations for the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea between ASEAN and China. Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, Chairman of the Philippine-China Research Association, said, "The Philippines wishes to finalize the code by next year."

The Code of Conduct is an enhanced and upgraded version of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and China has always been the main driver of the negotiation process. The negotiations for the "Code" were officially launched in September 2013, and in recent years, the negotiations have continued to make progress. In fact, the negotiations on the South China Sea Code resumed in Jakarta, Indonesia, in early March 2023.

Pitlo III said that the progress of the South China Sea Code negotiations depends on "Sino relations" and consensus among ASEAN member states. The existing Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, as a non-binding framework, is used to manage tensions, but Manila "hopes for a more binding document, and Japan supports this."

The South China Morning Post noted that this visit will be Masuda Shigeki's first visit to Manila since his appointment as Foreign Minister by Prime Minister Takahashi Hayato in October, and he previously served as Japanese Foreign Minister from 2019 to 2021.

Pitlo III mentioned that in recent years, the Philippines has been diversifying its defense alliances, so Manila would welcome Japan playing a "more active role" in regional security.

"The Philippines has become Japan's first market for defense exports," he referred to, the Philippines purchasing a Japanese airborne surveillance radar system at the end of 2023, "and the Philippines and Malaysia are also recipients of Japan's official security assistance."

Additionally, several sources revealed on November 30 last year that Japan and the Philippines have conducted informal discussions on the export of the "03-type medium-range surface-to-air missile". The Japanese government plans to abolish the current "Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment" and initiate relevant export arguments by mid-2026.

The sources said that the application guidelines for the current "Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment" are limited to the export of five types of equipment: "rescue, transportation, surveillance, monitoring, and mine clearance." Japan's move reflects its eagerness to promote defense equipment exports. It is known that the revision of the "five categories limitation" rule of the "Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment" and the gradual promotion of missile exports may cause concern, as the discussion in the parliament has not been sufficiently involved.

Yaacob said that Japan sees "clearly aligned strategic interests" with Manila in both the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, and is trying to take advantage of the Philippines' status as the ASEAN rotating chair to advance its maritime goals in these two areas. "As the ASEAN chair, the Philippines can advance Japan's strategic interests to maintain maritime stability around the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait," he claimed.

However, the South China Morning Post also warned that in late last year, Takahashi Hayato caused a sharp deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations due to erroneous remarks on the Taiwan issue. Subsequently, China took a series of countermeasures.

Previously, Japan and the Philippines had signed a "Reciprocal Access Agreement" to strengthen defense cooperation, which came into effect in September last year. Yaacob hyped up that the agreement "reflects the common security concerns and close defense relationship between the two sides," and will help the two countries respond to emergencies.

Meanwhile, Arnaud Leveau, assistant professor of geopolitics at the University of Dauphine in Paris, noticed that the agreement deliberately avoided forming an "alliance relationship" between the two countries.

"It strengthens deterrence through military presence and readiness, but does not include formal collective defense commitments," Leveau said: "The key point is that the Philippines is likely to place the agreement outside the ASEAN framework to avoid politicizing its chairmanship or alienating more cautious member states."

Regarding the issue of Japan and the Philippines agreeing to expand security cooperation, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jia Kun previously pointed out that China has always believed that exchanges and cooperation between countries should not target third parties or harm their interests. During World War II, Japan had invaded and colonized East Asian countries, including the Philippines, and occupied the South China Sea islands, bearing serious historical guilt. We urge Japan to follow the path of peaceful development and exercise caution in the field of military and security. We oppose any actions that create factions and escalate regional tensions in this region.

Guo Jia Kun emphasized that it needs to be pointed out that China's sovereignty and related rights in the East China Sea and the South China Sea have been formed over a long historical process and conform to international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. China's activities in the relevant seas are reasonable, legal, and beyond reproach.

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Original: toutiao.com/article/7594459554377662991/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.