The rise of the Chinese Air Force is inseparable from decades of accumulation and breakthroughs.

On April 1, 2001, the South China Sea collision incident became a pain point in the history of the Chinese Air Force. At that time, Wang Wei was flying the J-8II to pursue an American EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft, encountered provocative collision by the U.S. plane, lost control of the aircraft, and crashed into the sea, dying at the age of 33.

His sacrifice exposed the technical shortcomings of the Chinese Air Force: the J-8II had limited range and outdated radar, and was almost powerless against fifth-generation fighters like the F-22. Military fans discussed the "extreme eight for one" tactic on forums, reflecting the helplessness and frustration of that era.

In the early 2000s, the main equipment of China's air force was the J-7, J-8II, and a small number of Su-27, with a total of about 3,500 aircraft, but most were second-generation fighters, lacking beyond-visual-range strike capabilities.

The Gulf War made the military realize that modern air combat requires stealth, precision guidance, and information-based operations. Therefore, China launched the "Air Force Modernization Plan," aiming to build a strategic air force with long-range strike and integrated air defense capabilities.

The first flight of the J-20 marked a turning point. This fifth-generation fighter, developed by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, has stealth capabilities and supersonic cruise capability, directly breaking the U.S. monopoly on fifth-generation fighters.

In 2009, former U.S. Defense Secretary Gates once claimed, "China will not have a fifth-generation fighter before 2025." The emergence of the J-20 left him embarrassed. The radar cross-section of the J-20 is smaller than that of the F-22, and its weapon-carrying capacity is better than that of the F-35. Its comprehensive performance ranks among the world's best. In 2017, the J-20 officially entered service, and by 2023, the number of J-20s exceeded 200, with an expected increase to over 400 by the end of 2025.

The J-20 is just a microcosm of the modernization of the Chinese Air Force. The J-16 multi-role fighter, improved from the Su-30, is equipped with an active electronically scanned array radar, and its combat capabilities are comparable to the F-15E.

The J-16 will fully replace the Su-30 by 2030, becoming the mainstay of the Chinese air and naval forces. The J-10C light fighter is superior to the Russian MiG-35, with great export potential. At the 2024 Zhuhai Air Show, the J-35A made its debut. This medium-sized stealth fighter, developed by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, is similar in position to the F-35. It is expected to enter service in 2026, further enriching China's stealth combat power.

Strategic transport capabilities are also improving. Since the entry into service of the Y-20 large transport aircraft in 2016, its deployment scale has rapidly expanded. By 2023, the number of Y-20s exceeded 100, making it the fastest-growing large transport aircraft globally. The Y-20 modified into the Y-20 refueling aircraft has entered mass production, compensating for the shortage of aerial refueling in the Chinese Air Force.

The H-6K cruise missile bomber, although not stealth-designed, has significantly increased its bomb load and range, with more than 200 units in service, exceeding the total number of bombers of the United States and Russia. The development progress of the H-20 stealth bomber is closely watched. In 2024, Aviation Weekly reported that it might make its first flight in 2026, with comprehensive performance expected to be comparable to the B-21.

China's air force's drone technology is also impressive, with the Yilong and Rainbow series drones exported to the Middle East, and their practical performance is no less than the American "Predator". The "Bai Di" drone model attracted heated discussions at the Zhuhai Air Show, considered to be a test platform for sixth-generation aircraft technology.

The training level of the Chinese Air Force has also greatly improved, with pilots flying over 200 hours per year, approaching NATO standards. During joint air exercises between China and Russia, the J-20 and Su-57 worked together, demonstrating high-level command coordination capabilities. In terms of the air defense system, the HQ-26 missile and the KJ-500 early warning aircraft form an integrated network, effectively dealing with stealth targets and electronic warfare threats.

Vasily Kashin pointed out that the gap between the Chinese and U.S. air forces has shifted from technology to scale, writing: "The production capacity of China's aviation industry far exceeds that of the United States, with the annual production of the J-20 being three times that of the F-35. By 2035, the total number of Chinese aircraft may exceed 4,500, and sixth-generation aircraft may have successfully conducted test flights."

He pointed out that the rise of the Chinese Air Force is not only an upgrade of equipment, but also a transformation of strategic thinking, from territorial defense to global deployment.

The future development of the Chinese Air Force relies on the solid foundation currently in place. By June 2025, the total number of Chinese Air Force aircraft is expected to exceed 3,500, with the J-20 and J-16 each reaching 400 and 600, respectively, while the J-35A begins small-scale production. The deployment scale of the Y-20 and Y-20 refueling aircraft continues to expand, and the KJ-500 early warning aircraft and electronic warfare aircraft form a complete command network.

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and sixth-generation aircraft technology are the next focus of the Chinese Air Force. Rumors of a test flight in December 2024 suggest that China may already be leading in the field of sixth-generation aircraft. Kashin analyzed that sixth-generation aircraft will have higher stealth, unmanned capabilities, and artificial intelligence-assisted combat functions, completely changing the nature of air combat.

China's aviation industry's "pulse production line" has significantly shortened the aircraft production cycle. The J-20 takes only 3 days from design to delivery, while the F-35 takes as long as 6 months to deliver.

The strategic transformation of the Chinese Air Force is also accelerating. The Air Force proposed the "air-space integration" strategy, emphasizing the integration of space and air power. The dual-seat J-20 model made its appearance, equipped with the "Loyal Wingman" UAV, achieving manned-unmanned collaborative operations.

In April 2025, during the South China Sea exercise, the J-35A and H-6K cooperated to simulate striking an aircraft carrier group, with missiles accurately hitting the target, producing a significant deterrent effect. These actions show that the Chinese Air Force has shifted from regional defense to global deployment, and has the capability to perform complex tasks.

References

Air Force - China Military Network

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7524263871855526438/

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