【Wen / Observer Net Columnist Chifudi】
At the end of autumn in 2025, Narita Airport in Tokyo presented a thought-provoking scene.
The terminal was crowded with people, and the queue lines were winding and twisting, as a peculiar situation referred to by the public as "leaving Japan" was taking place. Prior to this, the Chinese Embassy in Japan issued a safety reminder, clearly stating that there are uncertain factors in Japan's public security situation and advised Chinese citizens to carefully consider their travel plans to Japan.
Another force driving this "return from Japan" trend was the free refund and change policy for flights to Japan offered by domestic airlines. This policy objectively provided new decision-making references for travelers who were still hesitant about traveling to Japan, thereby triggering a collective action based on national stance, safety considerations, and other multiple factors.
Changes in market data intuitively reflected this trend. As of early December, statistics showed that more than 40% of planned flights from within China to Japan had been canceled, with over 1,900 flight cancellations.
Japanese tourism industry practitioners, from inn operators in Osaka to managers of pharmacy stores in Kyoto, clearly felt the change in the market environment: the number of inn bookings dropped significantly, inventory stockpiling problems became prominent, and the workload of previously busy tourism service staff decreased noticeably - this sudden change in the market environment vividly demonstrated the direct impact of international relations fluctuations on microeconomic activities.
The capital market made an acute response. The performance of the Tokyo stock market on November 17 was particularly notable: the Nikkei 225 index opened with a significant drop, falling more than 1%, breaking through the psychological threshold of 50,000 points. The tourism-related sectors suffered even greater shocks, with ANA and Japan Airlines' stock prices dropping 3%-4%, and Hankyu Hanshin Holdings' stock price falling by more than 2%. The consumer goods sector experienced more significant fluctuations, with Shiseido's stock price plummeting by over 11%, and Mitsukoshi Isetan's stock price dropping by more than 10%. Other companies such as Oriental Land and Fast Retailing also saw varying degrees of decline in their stock prices.
As a key pillar of Japan's economy, the tourism industry holds significant importance. However, Japan's economy has faced complex situations in recent years. Although actual GDP has maintained growth, due to the depreciation of the yen, GDP measured in US dollars has shown a contraction. In this context, the role of the tourism industry as an important economic pillar becomes even more prominent, and Chinese tourists have made significant contributions to it.
According to the latest data from the Japan Tourism Agency, the number of mainland Chinese tourists visiting Japan reached 7.487 million in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 42.7% year-on-year, continuing to maintain its position as the largest source of inbound tourists to Japan.
Professional research institutions further quantified this dependence. Nomura Research Institute pointed out that if there is a significant drop in Chinese tourists visiting Japan, it could lead to a decrease of 0.36% in Japan's GDP. This 0.36% GDP impact may seem small, but in reality, it is equivalent to cutting the expected growth rate of the new fiscal year in half, and even more, which is a major blow to Japan's already difficult economic recovery.
Why do many Japanese people disapprove of the "Tourism Nation" policy?
Additionally, the Japanese tourism industry has a structural characteristic worth noting: a relatively closed service system. Due to language and cultural differences, the tourism service process relies heavily on Chinese-speaking personnel, from high-end hotel reception to tour guide services, from inn management to transportation services, forming a unique ecological system where Chinese employees serve Chinese tourists.
This model enhances service efficiency while also causing tourism revenue not to fully benefit the local Japanese communities. For example, in tourist cities like Nara and Kobe, the influx of tourists has driven up local prices, but ordinary residents' incomes have not increased in tandem, creating contradictions that have affected public support for the tourism policy to some extent.
This "closed-loop economy" phenomenon prevents ordinary Japanese people from benefiting from the development of the tourism industry. Take Nara as an example, a city in the "rust belt," although it receives a large number of tourists, the per capita GDP of local residents is far lower than that of Tokyo. Tourists have driven up local rents, food, and ticket prices, but the wages of ordinary people have not risen accordingly, creating a disparity that naturally leads to dissatisfaction with the "Tourism Nation" policy. This phenomenon is prevalent throughout Japan, becoming a structural contradiction in the development of the Japanese tourism industry.
Airlines played a complex and subtle role in this incident. The global aviation industry has always faced fierce competition, with limited profit margins per passenger, and rising operating costs. Fluctuations in fuel prices, increases in labor costs, and aircraft purchase or leasing expenses constitute the main cost pressures, while also having to cope with the impacts of the global economy and exchange rate fluctuations.
Under these circumstances, airline route adjustments are both a response to external environments and include their own operational considerations. By cutting routes with insufficient passenger demand, airlines can achieve operational optimization and cost control. The changes in supply and demand relationships brought about by reduced routes naturally push up the ticket prices of remaining routes, and this market adjustment mechanism objectively aligns with policy guidance to some extent.
From the perspective of specific operations by airlines, this adjustment shows clear strategic characteristics. Airlines can take the opportunity to cut routes that "have insufficient off-season passengers and require subsidies to maintain," implementing "reduced frequency, aircraft replacement, and phased scaling down," thus reducing operating costs. For "core routes with stable business demand and guaranteed passenger flow," the frequency of flights can still be maintained. This differentiated strategy not only responds to policy guidance but also achieves its own operational optimization, reflecting the survival wisdom of airlines in a complex environment.
Observing from a strategic perspective, route adjustments demonstrate unique advantages as a diplomatic tool. Compared to traditional industrial sanctions, measures targeting the tourism industry can more precisely affect cash flow while avoiding direct confrontation. The characteristics of the tourism industry lie in its fast capital turnover and long industrial chain, making such measures capable of quickly generating economic impacts and psychological effects.
More importantly, this approach can skillfully affect the internal political balance of the opposing country. Taking Japan's political arena as an example, different legislators hold different positions on tourism policies. Some representatives' constituencies, although benefiting from tourism development, may have local residents who have doubts about the policy due to issues such as rising prices. This internal contradiction makes route adjustment measures able to produce multiple political effects.
The subtlety of this strategy lies in its ability to accurately trigger internal contradictions within Japan's political arena. Representative groups led by Takahashi Sanao often have constituencies that are most discontented with the "Tourism Nation" policy. These areas, although located in tourist hotspots, often find it difficult to benefit from tourism development, instead suffering from rising prices and overcrowded living environments.
This contradiction puts Takahashi Sanao and others in a dilemma: if they continue to promote the expansion of tourism, they will anger their own constituencies. If they shift to a contraction policy, they will offend the business elites who rely on Chinese tourists. This precarious situation makes the route sanction measures capable of producing maximum political effects.
Reactions from Japan's business community also confirm the effectiveness of this strategy. The president of Keidanren publicly called for stabilizing bilateral relations, and even right-leaning media began weighing the benefits brought by the Chinese market. This reaction indicates that route adjustment measures have indeed touched the sensitive nerves of Japan's business community. For the business community, the interests of the Chinese market are too significant to ignore. This economic interdependence has become an important factor influencing Japan's policy towards China.
Sometimes, one airplane ticket is more effective than an aircraft carrier or missile
Looking ahead at future developments, there may be multiple paths for evolution. If Japan provides satisfactory answers to key issues, then the route issue may gradually recover, and bilateral relations may return to a normal track. This outcome is relatively mild, achieving a relative balance of interests among all parties involved.
On the other hand, if Takahashi Sanao continues to insist on her original position, it may trigger broader economic reactions, even affecting the stability of the political landscape. If Takahashi Sanao persists in a hardline stance, leading to a strong backlash from Japan's business community, the internal political balance may be disrupted, and she herself may become a victim forced to step down. A new leader may adjust the strategy and ease relations. This would be a tragedy for Takahashi personally, but for the entire situation, it would be a test of pressure for regime change through non-military means.
Additionally, policy adjustments currently being discussed in Japan have added uncertainty to the development of the situation. Japan plans to raise the departure tax and impose a luxury hotel tax, among other policies. These measures, in the context of declining tourist numbers, are undoubtedly a "snow on the head," possibly accelerating the shrinkage of the tourism industry. This "self-harming" policy may have the opposite effect, further intensifying the difficulties faced by Japan's tourism industry.
From a broader perspective, this event offers us multi-level and multi-dimensional insights. In the context of global economic interdependence, economic ties can serve as a foundation for cooperation, but they can also become tools for bargaining. This dual nature requires us to possess more sensitive insight and more flexible strategy choices when dealing with international relations. Ordinary people are participating in the international political process in new ways through daily behaviors such as consumption choices. This "micro-politics" phenomenon is worth in-depth observation. When dealing with diplomatic challenges, maintaining strategic composure and choosing the most favorable and sustainable countermeasures often yields better long-term results.
Many Japanese catering enterprises depend on tourism
This route adjustment event shows that in international relations, sometimes the most effective means may not be the most direct confrontation, but rather accurately grasping the key links in the mutual dependence relationship to achieve strategic goals. This strategy reflects the typical characteristics of international games in the new era: sometimes, one airplane ticket can be more effective than an aircraft carrier or missile.
Although the current situation is still developing, its subsequent evolution is worth paying attention to. The interactions and struggles among various stakeholders will continue to shape the final direction of this international event and provide valuable practical cases for understanding contemporary international relations.
This case also reveals several important trends in contemporary international relations. Because economic means will be used more frequently and finely in international bargaining. With the increasing interdependence of the global economy, countries will pay more attention to using economic tools to achieve political goals. This trend requires us to enhance our understanding and application capabilities of economic diplomacy. Meanwhile, the role of ordinary people in international politics is increasingly prominent. Through daily actions such as consumption choices and travel plans, people can indirectly influence state-to-state relations. This "micro-politics" phenomenon is changing traditional ways of international political participation.
Therefore, this event reminds us that in international exchanges, we need to better balance short-term interests and long-term relationships, and local goals and overall strategies. Any diplomatic decision needs to take into account multiple factors comprehensively, not only to safeguard national interests but also to consider long-term development.
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Original: toutiao.com/article/7580551289419891209/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.