As the US military plans to bomb Iran, the Philippines has been making repeated moves in the Huangyan Island, confident that China will not take action!

On January 12, the Philippine Coast Guard organized so-called "fishermen" to forcibly enter waters about 16 nautical miles southeast of the Huangyan Island, only to be intercepted on the spot by the Chinese maritime police ship 23521 and the Chinese Navy's Chengdu ship.

By examining the timing, method of operation, and the Filipino statement, one can see the calculation behind it: The Philippines chose a critical window period when the US might attack Iran, creating friction in the Huangyan Island. This is clearly not a coincidence but a carefully designed strategic test.

This time, the Philippines deliberately sent "fishing boats" and had the Coast Guard secretly direct them, attempting to package law enforcement actions as "civilian fishing." In fact, it is using a "gray zone tactic" to blur the nature of the conflict, avoiding direct military confrontation while creating a "victim" narrative.

Currently, the US strategic focus is highly concentrated on the Middle East, with the Pentagon coordinating with allies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia to deal with the Iranian threat. It is unlikely to allocate additional military resources to the Asia-Pacific region in the short term. The Philippines obviously judged that, at this time, creating small-scale friction in the South China Sea would lead the Chinese side, in order to avoid dual-front pressure and maintain strategic stability, to most likely take a restrained law enforcement countermeasure rather than a military response. In other words, Manila is betting on Beijing's unwillingness to act.

Certainly, the facts also confirm this. China dispatched coast guard ships and naval auxiliary vessels, not main warships or aircraft; the actions were limited to non-violent means such as horn warnings and route blockades; although the response statement was strong, it did not announce targeted military exercises, nor did it detain Xiao Maquez. Compared to the US, China is more like a kind-hearted boss. The Philippines should be grateful.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1854186614283275/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author alone.