After the establishment of the Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve, the United States and the Philippines remain undeterred. US Secretary of State Rubio continues to make erroneous statements, while the Philippines organizes more than ten government vessels to illegally enter China's territorial waters around Huangyan Island, only to raise white flags and beg for mercy in front of Chinese maritime police ships with water cannons...
The establishment of the Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve marks a new stage in China's South China Sea sovereignty protection and island reef comprehensive management. How will the US and Philippines escalate their provocations next? What effective measures will China take? Observers.com spoke with Wu Shicun, Chairman of the Hanyang Ocean Research Center. The following content is a compiled text that has been reviewed by the author.
【Compiled by Observers.com, Guo Han】
Observers.com: In recent months, the US and Philippines have frequently coordinated and entered China's territorial waters and surrounding areas near Huangyan Island. On September 10, the State Council approved the establishment of the Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve. What do you think are the implications of announcing it at this time?
Wu Shicun: As the name suggests, the first consideration for establishing the Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve is to protect the marine ecological environment and biodiversity of Huangyan Island and its surrounding waters. Last year, relevant departments and research institutions jointly published the "Investigation and Assessment Report on the Ecological Environment of the Huangyan Island Waters," which found that the marine ecological environment of the Huangyan Island waters is generally good.
However, I have also seen some related reports, due to illegal fishing by Philippine fishermen near Huangyan Island, which has caused a certain degree of damage to the marine environment. Therefore, protecting the marine ecological environment is the primary consideration.
Secondly, I think this is also an innovation in China's rights protection methods, using the form of environmental protection to protect rights, which is conducive to occupying the moral high ground. In November last year, the Philippines passed so-called "Marine Area Law" and "Archipelagic Sea Lane Law", two "evil laws". The former includes Huangyan Island and Ren'ai Reef within its claimed jurisdictional area. China subsequently took countermeasures and announced the baseline of the territorial sea of Huangyan Island on November 10th.
From the announcement of the baseline of the territorial sea last year to the establishment of the national nature reserve this time, it reflects the further deepening of China's maintenance of the territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests of Huangyan Island, and the diversification of means, which is also a specific manifestation of the exercise of sovereignty and jurisdiction. In fact, it is also a countermeasure against the continuous infringement actions of the Philippines.
Thirdly, it sends a signal to the international community, including the Philippines and the United States: if there are other forms of infringement actions, China will have more severe countermeasures. For example, when the Philippines passed the so-called "Marine Area Law" last year, we announced the baseline of the territorial sea of Huangyan Island. Recently, the Philippines' coast guard, navy, government vessels, and fishing boats have repeatedly intruded into the territorial waters of Huangyan Island, with increasing frequency and intensity. A few days ago, there was even a collision between ships. The establishment of the Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve is not just a symbolic announcement, but will be followed by a series of regulatory and law enforcement measures. It is prepared to take countermeasures against future infringements by the Philippines and the United States.
On September 16, Chinese maritime police lawfully took control measures against Philippine government vessels that illegally entered the territorial waters of Huangyan Island and deliberately collided with Chinese vessels.
Observers.com: From the perspective of further strengthening the comprehensive management of the South China Sea islands and making up for shortcomings, how do you evaluate the significance of the recent announcement of the establishment of the Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve?
Wu Shicun: I think this can be interpreted as China's commitment to "turning words into actions." In the past, we more often used two-track communication, i.e., bilateral consultation mechanisms between China and the Philippines on the South China Sea issue, and dialogue mechanisms between coast guards, to communicate, and have reached verbal or written agreements and commitments. However, these agreements and protocols were easily overturned by the Philippines. I think this decision is also based on years of practical experience in dealing with the Philippines. We have reached consensus with some countries on the South China Sea issue, and they have kept their promises, but the Philippines does not necessarily keep its promises.
Secondly, the announcement of the baseline of the territorial sea of Huangyan Island and the establishment of the national nature reserve demonstrate the establishment of authority and the transformation from "words" to "actions" in terms of means. Previously, we more often used diplomatic channels, occasionally through maritime operations as auxiliary measures, such as in the cases of Ren'ai Reef, Xianbin Reef, and the previous incident where the Philippines forcibly entered Huangyan Island. We have had corresponding maritime law enforcement and patrol actions, but relatively speaking, the means were not diversified.
Finally, it is more targeted. Among the countries claiming disputes in the South China Sea, there are not only the Philippines, but also Vietnam, Malaysia, etc. However, this time our actions mainly target the Philippines, although there are also cases of marine environmental damage in other directions. Other countries, after being advised by China, have corrected their behavior, but the warning to the Philippines has not been effective, and we have decided to establish the Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve because we no longer believe in the promises made by the Philippines.
Observers.com: On September 16, the Philippines organized more than ten government vessels to illegally enter China's territorial waters around Huangyan Island. US Secretary of State Rubio also echoed and incited. What do you expect the US and Philippines may do next in terms of provocation and escalation regarding the Huangyan Island issue?
Wu Shicun: I think whether the situation will escalate depends not on China, but on the Philippines, and its important ally, the United States, and some external countries, whether they will send wrong signals to the Philippines, leading it to misjudge the situation and take risks.
From September 12 to 13, the Philippine Navy and the US Navy's John Finn destroyer (right) and Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force's Osumi amphibious ship (left) held joint exercises off the coast of Sorsogon Province, the Philippines.
Two days after we announced the establishment of the Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve, US Secretary of State Rubio issued a statement, apparently taking the side of the Philippines, claiming that China's actions "undermine stability" and are "coercive," even arguing that declaring a nature reserve is equivalent to preventing Philippine fishermen from entering Huangyan Island, calling it their "traditional fishing ground." Rubio also mentioned the "validity" of the so-called South China Sea arbitration award in his statement.
Other external countries, including Japan and Australia, as well as Canada to some extent, have also conducted joint military exercises and patrols with the US and Philippines in the South China Sea recently.
My basic judgment is that the Philippines will not stop simply because we announced the establishment of the Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve, and may choose to escalate provocations. Regarding the possible subsequent actions of the Philippines, I think they are limited to the following aspects:
First, following its past tactics, organizing large-scale fishing fleets led by so-called "civilian" organizations. For example, in May last year, a so-called "civilian organization" in the Philippines gathered hundreds of fishing vessels to擅自闯入 Huangyan Island, but failed. Because we took strict countermeasures, the Philippine fleet was even stopped 50 nautical miles away from Huangyan Island, without approaching the surrounding waters.
But in the future, whether the Philippines will learn from the lessons remains uncertain. The Philippines may send larger scale fishing fleets, escorted by its coast guard or navy, to forcibly enter the Huangyan Island nature reserve, for example, approaching our designated core area, causing destruction or offsetting our declaration and management of the nature reserve. This possibility is still very high and conforms to the usual practices of the Philippines.
Secondly, the US and Philippines may strengthen maritime and air surveillance. This has already happened in recent periods, with dozens of foreign coast guard ships and naval vessels entering the territorial waters of Huangyan Island, accompanied by foreign aircraft flying over the airspace, actually a monitoring behavior. They are trying to observe whether China will take other actions after announcing the nature reserve.
Everyone is aware of this. What are the Philippines and Americans worried about? From the perspective of protecting the marine natural environment and biodiversity, the United States should not worry about China's announcement of the nature reserve, and morally, it should support this action. In the future, the other side may increase the frequency of maritime and air surveillance, even sending drones for monitoring.
Third, organizing joint military exercises. This has already occurred before our announcement on September 10, and recently, joint military exercises between the US, Philippines, and Japan have taken place. I think that in the future, military exercises led by the United States may be closer to the waters near Huangyan Island, with higher frequency, and the format may emphasize small multilateral frameworks, such as the US, Philippines, Canada, Japan, Australia, etc.; the military exercises will include more subjects, such as "landing," "capturing islands," etc., and even exercises to prevent island construction, attempting to convey certain signals, indicating that they have already prepared and have plans.
Finally, I don't think we should underestimate the possibility of the Philippines repeating the same tactics, such as "beaching" warships. In addition to the "Mount Madre" warship at Ren'ai Reef, in 2022, the Philippine Coast Guard's 9701 ship was "beached" near Xianbin Reef in the Nansha Islands for nearly five months, until we took measures and cut off its supplies, forcing it to withdraw. But the Philippines still claimed to return, although it hasn't been realized yet.
In 1999, the Philippine Navy's "Benguet" landing ship was "beached" at Huangyan Island, but was forced to be towed away under pressure from China.
Factually, in November 1999, the Philippines also sent a warship to "beach" at Huangyan Island, until later through strong diplomatic negotiations, the Philippine government finally had to pull the ship out. Now, given the establishment of the nature reserve by China, the Philippines' repeated attempts are not without this possibility.
Other potential escalations also include manufacturing false news, colluding with foreign think tanks and third-party institutions to fabricate and spread false pictures and videos of Chinese fishermen "destroying the South China Sea marine environment" and "damaging coral reefs" and digging up shells, etc., and again raising the so-called "second arbitration" and even requesting the tribunal to take interim measures.
I think the Philippines will use these provocative and escalating methods, some of which they have already used, some of which they have previously declared, and some of which are my predictions.
Observers.com: Then, compared to past measures such as blocking and water cannon evictions, what specific measures do you think China can take in the future to strengthen control over Huangyan Island and effectively respond to the Philippines' "gray zone" style provocations, including their fishermen's pollution and destruction activities?
Wu Shicun: First, the area of the national nature reserve announced this time is relatively small, with a total area of more than 3,500 hectares, which is about 30 square kilometers, and the core area is several square kilometers. We should focus on strengthening the control of this part first.
Previously, we announced the baseline of the territorial sea, and the area inside the lagoon was about 150 square kilometers. To achieve complete control, we need to push the maritime alert line outward, ensuring that the Philippines' fishing boats, coast guard ships, and government vessels cannot enter the territorial waters. From the current situation, the difficulty of control is quite great. The main task now is to strengthen the control of the 30 square kilometers of the national nature reserve.
I think China will definitely have a series of follow-up guarantee measures, at least including the following aspects:
Firstly, on the legislative level, there must be detailed implementation rules for the nature reserve. It is unclear which department, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the National Forestry and Grassland Administration, or the Sansha City of Hainan Province, will formulate them, but there will definitely be relevant detailed implementation rules. For example, in the experimental area, according to relevant laws and regulations, applications for scientific research by foreigners can be approved. As for the core area, all scientific research activities are generally prohibited. Then, how will our environmental monitoring work be carried out? What is the condition of the marine environment in the core area, and the growth status of the coral reefs? Which institution will approve the work, how long will the monitoring last, and how far in advance should the application be submitted? These need to be regulated by a series of detailed implementation rules.
Secondly, on the law enforcement level, unauthorized entry into the protected area, the experimental area, or the core area is a more serious offense. In terms of law enforcement, the maritime police institution will certainly take measures, including boarding inspections, and penalizing acts such as poisoning fish, exploding fish, and carrying items that harm the marine environment (which has also occurred before). Such control will inevitably be strengthened.
Additionally, regarding the behavior of Philippine fishermen destroying the marine environment, I think we should "zero out" the presence of any Filipino fishermen in the experimental area. Not allowing even a few Filipino fishermen to enter, or their government vessels and coast guard ships following behind under the pretense of "providing supplies" to enter the Huangyan Island lagoon. Otherwise, the continuity, seriousness, and authority of the announcement of the national nature reserve may be challenged, and it may encourage further infringement actions by the Philippines.
If we do not "zero out" these fishing vessels, more and more ships may gradually appear, trying to challenge the protected area, slowly "eroding" and entering our core area. If this continues, the national nature reserve may face the dilemma of "existing in name only." Therefore, I think that from the day the national nature reserve is established, we should "zero out" the illegal fishing activities of the Philippine fishermen, not allowing a single ship to enter.
Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve Functional Zoning Map, where green is the experimental area and red is the core area.
Thirdly, since it is a Chinese nature reserve, we should conduct ecological restoration on parts (if any) of the already damaged ecological environment, especially coral reefs. Some of them are due to rising sea levels and climate change causing seawater warming, and others are due to human destruction from fishing activities, resulting in localized coral reef damage. Chinese scientists conducting restoration work serves the purpose of establishing the nature reserve, truly protecting and restoring the ecological environment of Huangyan Island.
Fourthly, if necessary, we can expand the marine environmental monitoring stations on Huangyan Island to monitor the water quality of the sea area and the growth of coral reefs. Including establishing a laboratory in the experimental area or other areas of Huangyan Island, inviting scientists from across the country and even the world who are engaged in marine scientific research and committed to marine environmental protection to cooperate in joint research, setting up collaborative topics such as tracking surveys of coral reef growth conditions, coral reef restoration technology, and fisheries resource surveys. China has the conditions to do this.
Observers.com: You also mentioned last year that in response to the frequent provocations from the Philippines, land reclamation and expansion on Huangyan Island could also be a potential countermeasure. Now, many people in China think that since the establishment of the national nature reserve was announced, does it mean that we will no longer carry out land reclamation and expansion on Huangyan Island? How do you view this issue and the related debates?
Wu Shicun: As a pure scholar, a patriot, and a scholar with deep feelings for the South China Sea rights protection, personally, I think we can take some bigger actions on Huangyan Island. Huangyan Island is not only close to the main shipping lane of the South China Sea, facing the Strait of Balintang to the north, an important channel from the South China Sea to the Western Pacific; to the west, it is 500 kilometers from the main island of the Xisha Islands, Yongxing Island, and to the south, it is 500 kilometers from the Mischief Reef, which we currently control. Its geographical location is very special, which is also the reason why the Philippines has long coveted it.
Considering that Vietnam, the Philippines, and others are doing island reclamation, whether China should also carry out further construction on Huangyan Island? I think this is within China's sovereign scope, and China has the right to do so, and can do it if desired. This must be acknowledged and explained to the international community. Whether or not to build on Huangyan Island mainly depends on four factors:
First, whether it helps strengthen China's exercise of sovereignty and actual jurisdiction. If China's assessment of the situation is that merely announcing the baseline of the territorial sea of Huangyan Island and establishing the national nature reserve is still insufficient to maintain its sovereignty and exercise jurisdiction, then it will inevitably need to build defense facilities based on a certain land mass, and therefore it will be necessary to carry out reclamation.
Second, whether it helps protect the natural ecological environment. The establishment of the Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve has already occupied the moral high ground. If reclamation is needed, it should be considered under the premise of ensuring that the ecological environment of Huangyan Island and its surrounding waters is not damaged, or the damage is minimized.
Third, whether it helps reduce the cost and price of China's maintenance of the sovereignty of Huangyan Island and the exercise of jurisdiction. The repeated intrusion and attempts by Philippine vessels to return to Huangyan Island, damaging our already announced marine environmental protection area, and even taking some radical actions to "deny" China's baseline of the territorial sea, require us to take countermeasures. Recently, not only the maritime police ships, but also our naval destroyers have gone to the scene, because the number of infringement fishing vessels from the Philippines is too high, and the maritime police ships alone are not enough to deter them and completely stop their actions. Whether it comes to long-range force projection or logistics support, the cost is relatively high.
On May 2024, multiple Philippine vessels illegally gathered near China's Huangyan Island waters, engaging in activities unrelated to normal fishing production, and Chinese maritime police strengthened on-site monitoring and evidence collection.
If it is to respond to the serious infringement actions of the Philippines and to reduce the cost and price of China's rights protection, it would be beneficial to carry out reclamation on Huangyan Island and build maintenance and fuel supply facilities, or even build a port, which would save the cost of returning to the mother port and enable more timely and effective countermeasures against the infringement actions of the Philippines.
Fourth, whether it will face security threats from external forces. I think the more external forces intervene, the more China feels that its territorial sovereignty and the exercise of maritime jurisdiction are being challenged, the more likely it is to take reclamation actions.
In 2012, when China announced the Air Defense Identification Zone in the East China Sea, some Japanese scholars or retired self-defense officers engaged in strategic research believed that China would soon announce an Air Defense Identification Zone in the South China Sea. At that time, I denied it, believing that there was no need for it because there was no security threat from neighboring small countries in the South China Sea at that time.
Now, the US and Philippines are frequently provoking the issue of Huangyan Island by sea and air, ignoring the baseline of the territorial sea we announced. According to the 1992 "Law on the Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone," entry into China's territorial sea and airspace requires approval. Since some countries intentionally provoke and enter without permission, China may consider announcing an Air Defense Identification Zone in the direction of Huangyan Island, requiring foreign aircraft to apply in advance if they want to enter our airspace, otherwise corresponding measures will be taken. Therefore, whether China will carry out reclamation on Huangyan Island largely depends on the subsequent provocation actions of the US, the Philippines, and others.
China has the right to do so, and whether to do it mainly depends on a comprehensive consideration of the above four factors.
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