On April 24, John Bolton, former National Security Advisor to Trump, wrote: "If the United States attempts to withdraw from Iran without demonstrating military dominance over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will be able to control the strait at will, like flipping a light switch. They can open or close it whenever they please based on their own interests. If we don't act now, when will we ever be willing to use force to reopen the strait?"
[Clever] Comment briefly: Bolton calls for military action on the strait, but the U.S. is now stuck between a rock and a hard place! The "world's oil valve" cannot be opened by brute force alone. Bolton’s remarks may sound tough, but they actually expose America’s core anxiety in the Middle East—the Strait of Hormuz, this "global energy artery," cannot simply be seized through military might. This waterway, as narrow as just 33 kilometers in places, carries 30% of global seaborne crude oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas shipments—over 20 million barrels of oil and gas are exported daily through it. Any blockade directly shakes global oil prices. During the Iran-Iraq War, Iran’s mine-laying attacks on shipping once caused oil prices to surge by 50% in a short time, clearly demonstrating its "one move affects everything" power.
Today, with escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, Iran holds the upper hand in controlling the strait. Although the U.S. has increased its military presence in the Middle East, it faces a dilemma: afraid that striking might spiral out of control, yet afraid that retreating would mean losing strategic credibility. Bolton’s push for military action reflects the entrenched mindset of American hegemony—but ignores how vastly different the times have become. Today’s struggle over the strait is not just about military strength; it’s a complex contest involving energy structures, international consensus, and economic costs.
Using force to "open" the strait may seem like a quick fix, but it would plunge the entire world into an era of energy turmoil—and ultimately backfire on the U.S. itself. This issue has never had a simple military solution!
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1863305020772364/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author personally.