After high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US in Geneva reached important consensuses, all eyes were on the trade negotiations between the EU and the US, two major economies.

However, despite three rounds of meetings between the US and EU trade negotiation delegations, results have been minimal. An EU official familiar with the negotiations stated that the EU is not a priority for Trump, and the US side lacks clear objectives for the negotiations, seemingly making up stories as they go.

Worse still, after the China-US talks, Trump immediately turned his attention to criticizing the EU on trade issues and hinted that "significant concessions" would be made to the US, increasing uncertainty in the negotiations. How did the China-US Geneva talks affect other countries negotiating with the US? In the China-EU-US trade triangle, how can China take the initiative and work with Europe to counteract the US Trump administration's trade bullying? Observer Network interviewed Professor Huang Jing from Shanghai International Studies University, who is currently visiting Europe, for insights.

[Edited by Observer Network, Guo Han]

Observer Network: Considering the negotiations over tariffs between the EU and the US over the past month and a half, will the outcome of the China-US talks in Geneva impact the EU's stance?

Huang Jing: It can be seen that the EU initially intended to compromise, with individual countries like Italy proactively seeking talks with the US. However, they later found that compromising was met with betrayal from the US. Trump does not intend to compromise, so the EU had to adopt a more resolute countermeasure, at least refraining from making significant concessions during the negotiations. Historically, Europe has also taken a tough stance on trade issues with the US.

As for countries outside the EU, such as the UK, they first reached an agreement with the US, retaining a 10% tariff, but the UK itself has a trade deficit with the US. Therefore, the EU's general attitude is that they initially expressed a willingness to compromise, but after the US showed no interest, they adopted an uncompromising stance.

Of course, the fundamental reason for the EU's tough stance lies in unresolved issues between the EU and the US. The Trump administration openly supports right-wing opposition parties in Europe, which is a serious matter for established politicians like Ursula von der Leyen, Friedrich Merz, and Emmanuel Macron.

The consensus reached by China and the US in their recent high-level economic and trade talks in Geneva came as a surprise to the EU, who did not expect Trump to be so flexible. After launching such a fierce operation since April 2nd, increasing tariffs significantly only to return to square one is unexpected.

Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President of the European Commission and Commissioner for Trade, said: “China and the US have taken a step in the right direction.” Caixin

Privately, the EU acknowledges China’s position for three reasons. First, they believe China has more cards than the US, and the US cannot afford the cost of a complete shutdown of Sino-US trade. Second, they recognize that taking a friendly or even compromising stance toward Trump from the beginning actually yields no acceptable results; thus, China's approach of resistance is correct.

Third, the EU can see that China has received support from the vast majority of countries in this tariff war. After all, the US is undermining the global multilateral trading system, and only a few countries are willing to compromise with the US, while most countries are watching, which inherently supports China's position.

Therefore, the EU originally anticipated that Trump would make concessions, but they didn't expect him to concede so much, returning entirely to the starting point before April 2nd. This presents an opportunity for the EU to handle its negotiations with the US, giving them more confidence. However, Trump's current public statements are harsher on the EU, putting Europe under greater pressure.

I believe that after the China-US Geneva talks, Europe's stance on trade negotiations with the US has become more determined. These days, I am in Vienna, then Germany, and next Greece. During my exchanges, I feel that everyone believes they must be firm with Trump, with no other choice.

Observer Network: Last week, the EU proposed some potential concessions to the US, including loosening digital regulation and working together to curb what they call China's "excess production capacity." However, the EU also stated in April that it would not use disengagement from China as a condition for tariff negotiations with the US. Do you think the outcome of EU-US negotiations will ultimately include "poison pill" clauses against China like the US-UK trade agreement?

Huang Jing: I find it hard to imagine such a scenario. Before the talks with the US, China clearly stated that if any country sacrifices China's interests to reach terms with the US, China will retaliate. This position is very clear. Now that China and the US have reached a preliminary consensus, if the US wants to negotiate further with Europe at the expense of China's interests, I don't see where they could possibly begin. They might only be able to act unilaterally and forcefully toward China.

The momentum in improving Sino-European relations is currently good, with both sides canceling sanctions, and future visits by EU leaders to China may occur, such as Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's visit last month.

If the EU wants to progress in its trade negotiations with the US by joining forces against China, there are three obstacles. First, the EU's establishment leaders find it difficult to align with the US Trump administration politically. They are fundamentally incompatible, with Trump supporting Europe's right-wing factions. Additionally, they haven't agreed on major issues like the Ukraine-Russia conflict, making it even more awkward to jointly target China.

Second, Europe now understands that Trump has recently paused the China tariff war, and coming out ahead again would subject Europe to comprehensive Chinese countermeasures, which Europe may not withstand.

Third, if Europe intends to collaborate with the US to suppress China, theoretically, the recent consensus between China and the US could face uncertainties. Both sides know that Trump faces two pressing issues within the next 90 days: first, $6 trillion worth of US Treasury debt needs to be refinanced, which is a significant challenge. Second, before the start of the US midterm election cycle in September, Trump must deliver tangible achievements, so he is being cautious. There is no need to pursue cooperation with Europe to strike China now. I do not think this trend will happen in the short term because there is no specific area for either side to act upon, and Europe is well aware of China's stance, which would only cause trouble for themselves.

Currently, Europe's top concern is quickly reaching an agreement with the US to lower Trump's demands rather than turning back to "bite" China, which is logically and practically difficult to achieve.

Observer Network: In your view, is it possible for Europe and the US to reach an agreement in the short term? If Trump's "90-day tariff exemption" expires on July 8th, and tariffs may rise significantly, how much impact will this have on political and economic relations between Europe and the US?

Huang Jing: I believe that the communication mechanism between the EU and the US is relatively mature, and to some extent, they have figured out Trump's bottom line: seeing who can outlast the other. The consensus reached by China and the US actually sets a benchmark for negotiations between Europe and the US. I estimate that both sides will reach a compromise before the 90-day exemption period ends.

Trump's recent remarks directed at Europe are simply his habitual bullying tactics: extreme pressure followed by immediate bargaining.

On the other hand, to prevent Trump from achieving a quick victory and thus securing concessions from the US, Europe itself may not be able to endure the delay. In France, there is an upcoming presidential election in two years; Germany's Chancellor Scholz barely managed to form a government, and right-wing parties are developing domestically. Europe faces challenges of political fragmentation, and the economic situation is not good, with the additional burden of military aid to Ukraine. Overall, Europe's foundation for fighting a trade war with Trump is weaker than China's, and prolonged tariffs are detrimental to Europe's economy. As July and August are Europe's holiday season and peak tourist and consumption periods, tariffs will exacerbate inflation.

On May 12th local time, Trump criticized the EU's "unfair trade practices" at the White House and predicted that the EU would make "major concessions" to the US. Visual China

Therefore, in the face of Trump's continuous pressure, the only card Europe can play, and may likely play, is to first reach an economic and trade cooperation agreement with China, using the "China card" against the US. I estimate that Trump won't overlook this possibility. Now that China and the US have reached a consensus on reducing and deferring tariffs, Europe realizes its strategic position in the triangular game among China, the EU, and the US has weakened. If Europe seeks to ease tensions with China, it will face a situation where its position becomes increasingly weaker compared to the past. This is also one of the reasons why Europe is reluctant to continue delaying with the US.

Of course, many Western liberal media outlets and opinion leaders are clearly unfriendly toward Trump. However, before interpreting their comments, it is important to recognize that Trump is not without cards when dealing with Europe, especially with the security card of handling the Russia-Ukraine war. The US has no security cards to play against China, especially after the "May 7 air battle" in the India-Pakistan conflict, which was a highly impactful event. But Trump has not only economic cards but also security cards when dealing with Europe. Overall, I believe that compromises will be reached between the US and Europe, but whether the intensity of these compromises will match those made with China remains to be observed.

Observer Network: You also mentioned that Trump's concession on the tariff issue was unexpected, and many countries waiting for or negotiating with the US will take notice. Will the path of pressuring through tariffs to reach negotiation deals remain viable in the future?

Huang Jing: Trump's style of governance and transactional approach is unpredictable. He faces immense domestic political pressure and must produce tangible achievements by September; otherwise, he won't be able to explain himself during the midterm elections. Simply put, the accusation of "manipulating the stock market" could lead to severe consequences if the Democrats regain control of the House next year, potentially landing him and his family in prison.

Trump certainly needs to stabilize the situation, which is the greatest help the successful China-US economic and trade talks provide him. This includes the immediate rise in the US stock market, a decrease in inflation expectations, the resumption of trade between China and the US, and the potential for more negotiations to stabilize the situation.

This does not mean Trump won't reverse course. Once he stabilizes domestically, I believe the likelihood of Trump reversing course again is very high. One should not assume that this victory is permanent, and Trump will "learn his lesson." From past experiences, this person doesn't keep his word and can find various excuses to overturn agreements already reached, starting anew. For instance, by September, when the midterm election situation stabilizes or when economic indicators improve, I think China should not harbor illusions about Trump's characteristics.

On the contrary, this gives China a certain sense of urgency, such as seizing the moment to negotiate with Europe before Trump reverses course, ideally reaching an economic and trade cooperation model with Europe before the US and Europe reach an agreement. Trump should not be underestimated, and some pressures should be maintained, with contingency plans in place.

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