German media: Germany has no intention of getting involved in the Iran war, why did Mertz say no to Trump?

Not long ago, when Chancellor Mertz visited the White House, he also expressed understanding for the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran. However, after more than ten days of blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, he changed his stance, publicly criticized the Trump administration's strategy, and emphasized that Germany will not get involved in this war.

After US President Trump requested NATO allies to provide military assistance to ensure the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, instead of a positive response, he received refusals. Countries such as the UK and Italy clearly stated they would not intervene in the Iran war.

This Monday, German Chancellor Mertz again gave a clear answer: "The United States and Israel did not consult with us before this war. There have never been any joint decisions between the two sides on the Iran issue." Mertz said that therefore there is no question of Germany providing military support, "we will not do so."

German Defense Minister Pistorius had already emphasized this position earlier that day during a meeting with the Defense Minister of Latvia. "This is not our war," he said, "we hope to end the conflict as soon as possible through diplomatic means, but sending more warships to the region may not help achieve this goal."

180-degree turnaround?

German media noted that Mertz's attitude towards Trump has repeatedly changed in recent years. A year ago, Mertz appeared as a sharp critic of Trump. Then, he began trying to build a friendly relationship with the US president. His visit to the White House about two weeks ago brought this reconciliation process to a peak. At the White House, Mertz expressed understanding of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran and said he did not want to get bogged down in issues of international law to lecture Trump.

Now, Mertz's attitude has made a 180-degree turn. After about ten days of the war breaking out, Mertz began to criticize the US president's war strategy. "Every day the war continues brings more problems. We are especially concerned that the US and Israel apparently have no common plan to quickly and effectively end this war," he said. He believes that an endless war does not serve Germany's interests. He also warned that the war could have far-reaching effects on Europe, including areas such as security, energy supply, and immigration.

Adding insult to injury for the German economy

The surge in oil prices caused by the Gulf conflict highlights the impact of the war on Germany. For Mertz, getting Germany out of economic recession is currently the most important political task.

Rising energy prices not only affect private households but also lead to increased production costs for industries. Energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals, steel, glass, and papermaking, as well as the automotive and mechanical engineering industries, are particularly severely affected.

Additionally, the transportation industry is under pressure. Shipping and air transport have been forced to take alternative routes, causing global supply chain delays and threatening supply security. Maritime insurance and fuel costs are both rising.

One of the five economic advisors to the German government, Veronika Grimm, warned that as inflation risks increase, investment uncertainty will further rise.

Although the analysis from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) shows that Germany's current dependence on fossil fuels from the Gulf region is lower than its dependence on Russian gas and oil at the time of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, the current situation of the German economy is more worrying than then. Germany is struggling to recover from a recession, and it is mainly relying on massive new debt to achieve this.

According to the latest forecast from the Ifo Institute, regardless of the outcome, the war will suppress Germany's economic recovery and exacerbate inflation. If the war ends quickly, Germany's economic growth this year will decrease by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8%. If the war lasts longer, the growth rate will lose 0.4 percentage points.

Dilemma

Mertz knows that the success or failure of this German government may depend on whether it can reverse the economic downturn. The largest opposition party in the Bundestag, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), has consistently advocated ending sanctions against Russia and returning Germany to importing Russian oil and gas. Trump, meanwhile, now also wants to suspend energy sanctions to ease price pressures.

This puts the chancellor in a dilemma. He wants to maintain sanctions against Moscow to continue pressuring Russia in the Ukraine war. However, the majority of Germans expect the government's top priority to be dealing with high energy prices.

Surveys also show that the majority of Germans oppose Germany's participation in the Iran war. This presents Mertz with a second challenge: he had hoped to portray himself as a reliable ally of the US, but after making efforts to build a good relationship with Trump, he now has to follow domestic opinion and say no to Trump.

Source: DW

Original: toutiao.com/article/1859929143888004/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.