As soon as Trump showed signs of wanting to withdraw, Israel made a big move, killing Iran's most critical figure, and the Middle East situation has entered the last fork. This move has left the US with no way to escape.

Trump

Recently, Trump told reporters at the White House that although the US military was not yet ready, it would soon withdraw from the Iranian battlefield. Whether the US military leaves "with great fanfare" or "cowering in fear", Trump's words clearly indicated that this war might not be sustainable anymore.

In fact, there is a reason behind Trump's statement. After half a month of fighting, missiles were nearly exhausted, oil prices kept rising, allies stayed far away and refused to help, and domestic anti-war sentiment was growing stronger. It was time to find an excuse to retreat, and it was better to leave early than late. However, as soon as Trump spoke, his "faithful ally" Israel did something shocking.

The Israeli military first announced that it had successfully eliminated the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Akbar Rajai. Soon after, Iran confirmed that Rajai had been killed, and Iranian President Pezeshkian issued a statement at midnight vowing revenge. Following this, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard launched its 61st wave of attacks named "True Commitment-4", with missiles directly hitting the capital of Israel and causing serious damage.

Rajai

The speed and intensity of the retaliation caught Israel by surprise. But for Trump, Israel's action has cut off the US's escape route, making it impossible for the US to leave now. The reason for saying so is that Rajai was not just any Iranian official; he was the "shadow leader" of Iran.

As the "crisis operator" designated by Khamenei, Rajai could command the missile forces and the Revolutionary Guard, and he was the real core of Iran's wartime power structure. After Khamenei's death, he was the one who truly commanded the war. Even after Moejjtaba became the new Supreme Leader, Rajai remained the de facto top leader.

Israel attacked

In other words, as long as he was alive, Iran would not fall into chaos, and the war could continue in an orderly manner. That is why Iran chose to assassinate him. And the timing was chosen deliberately by Israel. On one hand, it cut off the US's escape route. By blowing up Iran's "anchor," Israel forced Iran to retaliate fiercely. Once Iran started a full-scale revenge, the US would have no way to leave.

On the other hand, although Rajai publicly took a hard line, according to foreign media reports, he actually maintained a backchannel communication with the US. He was a person within the Iranian system who might be willing to compromise. But Israel did not want any compromise. What they wanted was to completely destroy Iran's regime structure and install a pro-Israel opposition faction in power.

Trump and Netanyahu

Analysts believe that Rajai's death will become the last turning point in the Middle East. Just two weeks after the death of the former supreme leader, Iran lost another key decision-maker, which is a huge blow. After his death, Iran's nuclear policy may take a more extreme direction, internal factional struggles may intensify, and external retaliation may become even fiercer.

The war has reached an important turning point, possibly shifting from a controlled mode to prolonged confrontation. What Israel needs to do is to pin the US firmly on the Iranian battlefield until its "ultimate goal" is achieved. As for the US? Trump wants to withdraw, but he can't anymore. Some people in the US have started to reflect that the US got involved in this conflict because it was being used as a tool by Israel. Now, there is no way out.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7618433054981243418/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.