Several years ago, when my colleague Zhai Dongsheng and I were taking a walk and chatting, we reached a consensus: China's military strength is likely to surpass that of the United States earlier than its economic strength. It must be emphasized here that the economic strength mentioned by me and Professor Zhai does not simply refer to the GDP figure, but rather the real strength that can be practically converted into national competitiveness.

China's twin aircraft carrier formation exercise. (Source: Xinhua News Agency)

Why would military strength surpass economic strength? To understand this, we need to see through the essence of modern national competition. The core of modern civilization is industrialization, and industrial capacity is the real foundation for a country to stand at the center of the world stage. Once industrial capacity and technological level are improved, military strength will naturally grow like a tree. With China becoming the world's largest manufacturer in 2010 and continuously consolidating its advantages in the following decades, such an industrial scale will inevitably give birth to a strong national defense force. In the future, our military strength is certainly going to reach a remarkable height, it's just a matter of time, whether it comes sooner or later.

However, it may take even longer for China's economic strength to comprehensively surpass that of the United States. The key shortcoming lies in the financial sector - there is still a significant gap between us and the United States in terms of international monetary influence and global financial rule-making power. This is like we run a diligent manufacturing factory, working hard to tighten screws and make machines, earning some hard-earned money throughout the year, while they, relying on their century-old financial hegemony, play some financial games with ease and easily take away our profits. This gap in financial strength cannot be bridged by short-term efforts alone.

Workers on the production line. (Source: Xinhua News Agency)

The British economist Maddison, in his works, restored the history of the world economy with detailed data. He specifically estimated that in 1800, China's GDP accounted for 30%-35% of the world, more than the total of all European countries at that time. However, at that time, China was the peak of an agrarian civilization, with almost zero industrial capacity. Forty years later, during the Opium War, the Qing army's swords and spears faced the British fleet's warships and cannons, and the seemingly huge economic volume was instantly defeated, crushed in one battle. This fully illustrates that an economic volume without the support of industrial hard power is like a castle built on sand.

Similarly, although the United States now shows off its might around the world, with aircraft carrier groups sailing across the oceans and using the dollar hegemony to harvest global wealth, once we form an absolute balancing capability militarily, perhaps it could burst its "bubble" in one battle. The change of the situation will be very fast.

I estimate that by 2035, China's manufacturing industry should achieve a comprehensive breakthrough. At that time, our manufacturing value-added will be about three times that of the United States, equivalent to twice that of the entire Western developed countries. Moreover, in these areas that are currently being "strangled," such as high-end chips and civil aviation engines, we should be able to achieve self-reliance and control.

Model of an aircraft engine displayed by the China Aviation Engine Group at the 13th China International Aerospace Exhibition. (Source: Xinhua News Agency)

With the full consolidation of this manufacturing advantage, our military strength will naturally rise accordingly. At that time, facing the PLA's stealth fighters, hypersonic missiles, and ocean-going fleets, the US military's air superiority in the Western Pacific and even globally will face serious challenges. Its hundreds of military bases scattered around the world will also become targets in the face of long-range precision strike weapons.

However, these optimistic projections have a big prerequisite: we ourselves must not make any major directional mistakes.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7534983947719017011/

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