【Text by Gideon Rachman, Translation by Whale Life】
When Ukrainian President Zelenskyy visited the White House on Monday (August 18), the shadow of the disastrous Oval Office meeting in February still loomed large.
At that time, he argued with Trump in front of a live television audience, which not only marked a low point in relations between the United States and its Western allies, but also put Ukraine in great danger.
Now, another critical moment is approaching. At the recent U.S.-Russia leaders' summit in Alaska, Trump clearly appeared to be under Putin's influence. He may be trying to push for a Russian-dominated peace plan - something completely unacceptable to Ukraine.
On August 15 local time, Trump greeted Putin in Alaska. China Visual
According to reports, Russia's demands are not to freeze the current front lines, but to force Ukrainian forces to completely withdraw from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including strategic cities still under Ukrainian control. The Russian conditions also include strict limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military and national sovereignty.
Zelenskyy's challenge lies in: he must pull Trump back from the track set by Putin, while avoiding another public quarrel - which would have fatal consequences for Ukraine. The reality is that the continuous combat capability of the Ukrainian army still highly depends on American intelligence and military support.
It is not easy to recover from the loss caused by the Alaska summit. But Zelenskyy has learned from his previous setback. This time, he will no longer go into the lion's den alone.
According to the plan, Zelenskyy will be accompanied by a group of important European leaders, including: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, EU Commission President von der Leyen, as well as three "Trump communication experts" from Europe: Italian Prime Minister Meloni, Finnish President Stubb, and NATO Secretary General Rasmussen. The Europeans will do their utmost to guide the talks towards a safer direction.
This will be an extremely complex task: on one hand, it must convince the US president "you were misled by Putin," and on the other hand, it must not imply in any way that Trump is not a "stable genius" (as he himself said).
For the Europeans, the good news is that Trump has a notable trait: he is easily influenced by the last person he spoke to. In Alaska, it was Putin, and now it's Zelenskyy and his allies.
Trump's rare tough stance toward Russia often occurs after he meets European leaders. For example, after meeting with Starmer in Scotland in July, Trump shortened the ceasefire deadline for Russia and threatened punitive sanctions against countries that trade with Russia.
Rasmussen is skilled at "humorous and casual" diplomacy with the US president, and is often criticized for it. However, behind his smile, there are deep differences with Trump's core advisors.
For example, Steve Witkoff, Trump's de facto Kremlin envoy, stated in March that the claim that Russia is ready to invade European or NATO countries is "nonsense." In contrast, Rasmussen warned that "Russia might be ready to attack NATO within five years."
Such statements indicate that for the European leaders accompanying Zelenskyy, this trip goes beyond showing solidarity. They believe the safety of the entire continent depends on the fate of Ukraine.
The most important issue at present is how the war in Ukraine will end. The "territory exchange" mentioned by Trump recently made the Europeans very uneasy. However, he also ambiguously mentioned the possibility of the US providing security guarantees to Ukraine, which attracted attention from Kyiv and Brussels.
If substantive negotiations can be initiated - whether during this visit to the White House or in subsequent days - the focus will likely be on the balance between territory and security guarantees.
In the current situation, Zelenskyy is almost impossible to accept territorial losses - not only would this endanger Ukraine's future security, but it would also threaten his political life. However, if he receives strong and reliable security guarantees, Ukraine may consider making concessions on the issue of territory.
On February 28 this year, Zelenskyy had a public argument with Trump during his visit to the White House, and the meeting ended without results. Video screenshot
Today, it is generally believed that Ukraine has no hope of joining NATO. There was a discussion in early 2025 about deploying a European "protection force" in Ukraine as part of signing a peace agreement. The British army will be the main force of such a "protection force." However, Starmer emphasized that any deployment of European forces to Ukraine requires American "support."
The Trump administration has long been highly vigilant about these commitments, fearing that they might drag the United States into war. However, if Trump is now willing to reconsider providing security guarantees to Ukraine, then other necessary elements of signing a peace agreement, such as territorial concessions, may become more flexible. As one European negotiator closely involved in the talks said: "There are too many variables now."
These variables are not only dynamic, but also intricately intertwined: does the European security guarantee include a commitment to send troops if Russia attacks again? What role will the United States play in that case?
The last time Trump scolded Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, he concluded: "This was really a 'good show'." Now, it's time for a real diplomatic "play."
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