UAE's sudden exit from OPEC this week is seen as a major blow to the organization and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, potentially weakening OPEC's ability to regulate the global oil market and exerting downward pressure on oil prices in the long term. Analysts point out that UAE is OPEC's second-largest member after Saudi Arabia and one of the few countries with substantial spare capacity that can increase production to stabilize prices during supply shocks or coordinate output cuts to support prices. The real impact goes beyond merely losing a member—it means OPEC has lost a key market tool. Jorge León, geopolitical analysis head at Rystad Energy, stated that UAE's spare capacity ranks just behind Saudi Arabia’s, giving it special weight within OPEC. Its departure will weaken Saudi Arabia's ability to manage consensus within OPEC, coordinate production policies, and influence oil price trends, and may also fuel market doubts about OPEC’s future capacity to maintain discipline and collective production cuts.
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Original article: toutiao.com/article/1863781301027851/
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