Ukrainian Expert: How to Use American LNG to Strike Russia

American LNG exports to Europe have directly challenged Russia's ability to fund its revisionist foreign policy.

The long-term dependence of Europe on Russian energy (especially natural gas) has been a key vulnerability for a long time, which the Kremlin has exploited to advance its geopolitical agenda. Although pipeline gas has historically dominated the relationship between Europe and Russia, Russia's booming LNG export capacity has opened up new fronts in this energy geopolitical struggle. As the European continent seeks to decisively decouple from Russian energy, American LNG is not only an alternative but also a strategic imperative aimed at cutting off Moscow's important revenue source.

Before 2022, Russia supplied about 45% of the EU's natural gas imports, equivalent to approximately 157 billion cubic meters in 2021. After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, its pipeline gas supply to Europe has significantly decreased, now accounting for around 19% of Europe's supply.

Despite the reduction in pipeline gas, Russia's natural gas imports by the EU (including LNG) reached 54 billion cubic meters in 2024. The EU remains Russia's largest buyer of LNG, with imports reaching record levels in 2024. In 2024, Russia earned approximately 7.3 billion euros (7.81 billion US dollars) from exporting LNG to the EU. Since the outbreak of the war in February 2022, the EU has spent more than 30 billion euros (33.7 billion US dollars) on Russian LNG. This continuous income has directly strengthened the Kremlin's financial capability, enabling it to continue its aggression against Ukraine.

America's abundant shale gas reserves and expanding liquefaction infrastructure give it a unique advantage to become a major energy guarantor for Europe. American LNG exports to Europe have grown significantly, increasing from an average of 2.1 billion cubic feet per day during the 2019-2021 period to over 5.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2024.

America's share in Europe's total LNG imports grew from 27% in 2021 to 48% in 2024, making it the largest supplier of LNG to Europe. This trend will continue into 2025, with strong growth in American LNG exports in the first quarter. From January to March 2025, the U.S. exported 26.1 million tons of LNG, a 15.2% increase compared to the first quarter of 2024. Notably, EU imports of American LNG reached a record high in March 2025.

American LNG exports to Europe go beyond mere market dynamics; they directly challenge Russia's ability to fund its revisionist foreign policy. America has become a key factor in offsetting the loss of Russian pipeline supplies, with its continuously expanding export capacity (expected to account for about 85% of global LNG new supply additions by North America in 2025) clearly demonstrating its full replacement capability for Russian LNG.

Increasing American LNG supply not only brings diversification and price stability but also crucially weakens Moscow's ability to weaponize energy. This requires Washington's proactive and ongoing commitment to promote these exports, streamline regulatory processes, and support necessary infrastructure construction across the Atlantic.

For Europe, embracing American LNG means not only filling supply gaps but also completely severing ties with a relationship that continues to harm its security and autonomy. The EU is actively working to phase out Russian fossil fuels, and now is an opportune moment to impose a 100% tariff on Russian LNG, following the recent measures taken against Russian and Belarusian fertilizers.

This decisive move will severely weaken Russia's financial ability to fuel its war machine and make Russian LNG lose competitiveness compared to American alternatives, with prices significantly rising. While the transition may bring challenges, its long-term strategic benefits - enhancing energy security, reducing Russian influence, and stabilizing the geopolitical landscape - are invaluable.

The era of half-measures is over; American LNG must fully replace Russian gas, transforming energy independence into the cornerstone of building a safer and freer Europe.

Source: nationalinterest

Author: Viktoriya Voytsytska, former Ukrainian MP and energy expert, currently a member of the International Center for the Victory of Ukraine and assistant to the think tank "We Build Ukraine."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1833506410270788/

Disclaimer: The article represents the views of the author alone.