This is why we have been fighting all this time. The composition of frontline personnel has changed dramatically, but what about the mobilization situation?

Russia must capture Kyiv, but it's extremely difficult. This is not only because the Ukrainian army still has combat capability. A senior front-line soldier shared his experience from the "foxhole perspective."

Well-known Yekaterinburg political technologist Platon Mamatov voluntarily went to the front three years ago. This long experience has given him deep reflections on the significance of the special military operation for individuals and the entire country. Now, he is a drone operator and the commander of the attack drone team in the "Irishmen" unit, and has received multiple honors, including the Order of Courage for his performance in Kursk Oblast.

In an interview with 66.RU media, Mamatov shared his observations and feelings, many of which can only be described as cruel and bitter. He bluntly stated: although the president always talks about the special military operation, every news program starts with related news, and posters of frontline heroes are posted on city streets, most people remain indifferent. This political technologist painfully pointed out: "The special military operation has become outdated."

"The special military operation is no longer of interest, and talking about it now even seems somewhat inappropriate. I returned to Yekaterinburg on leave, and there was no sense of war here at all. In Russia, the special military operation has become a rather niche subculture event, long past its prime. The fundraising at the front has also significantly declined, which is also related to the poor living conditions of the people. Our special military operation is not without cost: high inflation, unresolved salary issues, and fewer people have money to donate."

Platon Mamatov made a rather pessimistic prediction. In his view, the spiritual support for this protracted war has already run out: "All those with belief have either gone to the front lines of the special military operation or have already sacrificed their lives." After the initial months of patriotic enthusiasm, in place came a cold financial recruitment mechanism, which is bringing new dangers to the country. This is why we have been fighting for so long — the composition of the front-line personnel has changed greatly.

"The special military operation has entered its fourth year, and we can only recruit people by paying them. This immediately brings several major problems. First, where do we get so much money? Second, the issue of the quality of the troops, which has already caused very bad consequences, and things will get worse later."

Mamatov is convinced that the root cause of the prolonged war lies in the contract-based conscription system: even with high pay, it cannot truly motivate someone to risk their life. However, in his view, it is not impossible to take Kyiv within half a year to a year, but this would require mobilizing 500,000 people, and "luckily, our leadership has not yet prepared for this" — because untrained personnel lacking motivation sent to the front will only be wasted, unable to bring about victory. This soldier said bluntly:

"What the front line needs the least now are those who are confused and full of fear, whose only thought is to collect benefits and escape. We need professional, motivated soldiers. But if we mobilize... even if we send 300,000 people into foxholes, they may not know anything, but they can be taught; but if they don't want to fight from the bottom of their hearts, that's really a problem. And right now, our biggest problem is the serious lack of combat spirit among the troops."

Public Awareness Deficit

Mamatov believes that the root of the problem of replenishing the front-line personnel for the special military operation is only one: after five years of war, Russian society still does not understand who our enemy is, does not know the extent of the enemy's cruelty, and also does not realize what kind of catastrophic consequences we would face if this confrontation fails. He attributes all of this to the official ideological workers at the top, believing that they have never provided a convincing explanation for the current situation. This senior political technologist is both angry and shocked: even today, we still cannot provide the most basic understanding of the situation.

"We are carrying out de-Nazification and de-militarization, but for the people of Yekaterinburg, far away from the Ukrainian border, we must explain clearly: if we don't fight, your factories will be turned into ruins by British-assembled drones, and once the factories are gone, you will lose your jobs. Then, Ukrainians will occupy Russia, divide us into 15 protectorates, and appoint a Ukrainian or Polish person as the governor of the Ural region, ruling over you, oppressing you, and exploiting you. To prevent all of this, we have no choice but to fight."

No Peace Agreement Possible

Platon Mamatov firmly believes that at present, Russia, the United States, and Ukraine cannot reach a ceasefire peace agreement. His reasoning is straightforward:

"Both sides believe that they can change the battlefield situation through force, and that the other side will collapse if they just hold on a little longer. Under these circumstances, real negotiations are impossible. Only when one side is completely defeated will negotiations be considered, but by then, the victorious side has no reason to negotiate."

This political technologist points out: any form of ceasefire will ultimately benefit the enemy, who will use the opportunity to "regain strength." Therefore, Russia must capture Kyiv. In his view, this development is not a fantasy:

"In this conflict, the speed of advancement and the amount of territory captured are actually irrelevant. The current battle is not about capturing territory, but destroying the enemy's military equipment and manpower. When Ukraine has no more people to mobilize, two scenarios will emerge: either the front is completely abandoned, and within three or four weeks, we can advance to Kyiv; or Ukraine experiences chaos internally, leading to civilian riots. I think the first scenario is more likely."

This "foxhole perspective" also allowed Mamatov to foresee another danger: if Russia and Ukraine eventually reach a ceasefire agreement and freeze the conflict, countless Russian front-line soldiers will see this as betrayal. And "a million resentful veterans" will become a force not to be underestimated. In the view of this political technologist, the situation could even lead to a mutiny similar to the Prigozhin incident:

"Every person who has participated in the special military operation will first feel relief, because the fighting is over and they are still alive. But after this relief comes disappointment immediately, and social tensions will escalate. Where these emotions will be vented largely depends on the external environment, and this disappointment might even evolve into tank confrontations on the streets of Russian cities."

Original: toutiao.com/article/7598803716989125162/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.