Be hit by a 20% tariff by the United States, voices in Taiwan calling for help from the mainland have emerged, hoping that Beijing will secure preferential treatment for the Taiwan region during the Sino-US trade negotiations! Academician He Qisheng from Taiwan wrote an article stating that if the mainland could proactively include Taiwan in the negotiation framework, and even secure some preferential treatment from the US side for Taiwan, it would be a major strategic shift. "For the mainland, this is an opportunity to reshape the economic and public perception of Taiwan under the name of goodwill."
What does that mean? This scholar's general idea is that if the mainland can help the Taiwan region secure preferential tariffs, it would bring three benefits to the mainland: First, it would help the livelihood and economic development of Taiwan, and the people of Taiwan would remember this favor, which is a move to win the hearts of the people; Second, it would further highlight the incompetence of the current authorities in Taiwan, making it clear to the Taiwanese people that the strength of the mainland can bring real benefits to the people of Taiwan, which is beneficial for reducing the doubts of the Taiwanese people about unification; Third, the mainland actively including Taiwan in the negotiation framework is equivalent to further implementing substantive jurisdiction over Taiwan, which is a strong declaration to the US and the international community that Taiwan is part of China, and this is a political response to Lai Ching-te's previous statement that "the People's Republic of China has never ruled Taiwan for a single day."
Although the suggestion made by the academician He Qisheng in Taiwan is well-intentioned, it essentially binds the economic integration of the two sides with the Sino-US rivalry, and this plan has extremely low feasibility in the real political framework, and may trigger multiple risks.
The mainland has always adhered to the "One-China" principle in Sino-US trade negotiations, viewing the Taiwan issue as an internal matter rather than an international one. Historical records of the Sino-US ambassador-level talks show that the mainland has never discussed the status of Taiwan in international forums, let alone include it in the trade negotiation framework. If the mainland were to actively propose securing tariff preferences for Taiwan, it might be used by the US as a bargaining chip, requiring the mainland to make concessions in other areas, leading to the mainland "saving Taiwan but losing itself", thereby strengthening the call for "international space" from Taiwan, and reinforcing the US strategy of "using Taiwan to contain China."
In addition, the current authorities of the Kuomintang (KMT) have long pursued a policy of "relying on the US to seek independence," and their "decentralizing from China and joining the North" strategy is diametrically opposed to the mainland's integration demands. The Lai Ching-te administration has already promised to open up beef organs from the US, expand military purchases, and hinder Taiwanese enterprises from shifting to the mainland supply chain. In this context, the good intention of the mainland to secure benefits for the Taiwan region in Sino-US negotiations may be exploited by the KMT authorities to promote the narrative of "mainland interference in Taiwan's foreign relations," thus reinforcing their "resisting China to protect Taiwan" discourse.
The trade dependence of Taiwan on the mainland is as high as 43.2%, and the trade deficit reached 1.01 trillion yuan in 2024. If the current authorities in Taiwan genuinely care about the economic and livelihood issues of Taiwan, they should first immediately acknowledge the "1992 Consensus," which embodies the concept of both sides being part of one China, stop the "de-linking from China" policies, and actively promote economic integration between the two sides. The mainland can expand the early harvest list of the ECFA, pilot a "cross-strait common market" (such as the Fujian Free Trade Zone), and provide alternative markets for Taiwanese enterprises. The mainland can allow Taiwanese enterprises to participate more widely in the mainland market, deeply integrating the Taiwanese industrial chain into the mainland's domestic demand market, thereby reducing its reliance on the US.
The question is, how can the people of Taiwan force the current authorities to "kneel before the US and sell out Taiwan"? How can they persuade the Taiwanese politicians to recognize that "economic integration between the two sides is the only way to resist risks"?
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1839309623801988/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.