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Image caption: On July 14, the "Russia Today" website published an article titled "German Defense Minister Says the Army Is Ready to Kill Russians." This is a screenshot of the report.
Editor's note: Recently, relations between Germany and Russia have further deteriorated. After German Defense Minister Pistorius made remarks that "if Russia attacks NATO, German soldiers will be ready to kill Russian soldiers," Russian President's press secretary Peskov directly stated that "Germany is becoming dangerous again." The positions of political figures in both countries seem to have influenced public attitudes: A recent survey by British YouGov showed that about half of German voters agree with the federal government's assessment that "Russia poses a threat to Germany"; a recent survey by a Russian polling organization showed that 55% of Russians consider Germany the "most unfriendly country." However, according to the special correspondent of the Global Times in Germany, through observation and interviews, it was found that the attitude of Germans towards Russia is actually more complex. This not only relates to their political inclinations, but also to the regions they are in. Although the German government is increasing pressure on Russia, its business sector has already turned its attention to potential cooperation between the two sides after the end of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
A Dilemma: Buy Russian Oil or Mass Layoffs
Recently, the German government has taken an unusually tough stance toward Russia in military and economic fields. In May this year, after the new government took office, Germany announced that it would provide financial support to Ukraine to help it produce long-range missiles within Ukraine, and these weapons have no range restrictions, allowing the Ukrainian army to strike Russian military targets inside Russia. On July 14, German Chancellor Mertz said that he had communicated with U.S. President Trump multiple times on aid to Ukraine, welcomed the latter's announcement of providing large-scale military aid to Ukraine through NATO, and pledged to play a "decisive" role in this process. About two weeks later, a source told the Washington Post that Germany had delivered three "Patriot" air defense missile systems to Ukraine.
In the economic field, a document obtained by Reuters in late June showed that Germany is considering amending its foreign trade law to prevent companies operating the "Nord Stream 2" gas pipeline from being acquired, which is one of the actions taken by the German government to avoid resuming imports of Russian natural gas. In May this year, there were reports that the U.S. and Russia discussed the possibility of restarting the "Nord Stream 2" pipeline during talks on a ceasefire in Ukraine. Both sides proposed that American investors buy natural gas from Russia and then rebrand it as an American brand for sale to Europe. The Swiss company currently operating the "Nord Stream 2" pipeline project is undergoing bankruptcy liquidation and may sell its assets. There were reports last November that investor Lynch was trying to acquire the project, but the Russian government denied the report. Mertz has said that he will ensure the "Nord Stream 2" gas pipeline project will not go into operation, but Germany currently has no legal means to prevent the Swiss company from selling its assets.
Compared to the German government's tough stance, many people in the German economy have called for resuming cooperation with Russia. "To Russian oil or mass layoffs: A dilemma for a German town," according to a report by the European edition of "Politico" on July 4, the city of Schwedt in Brandenburg has about 30,000 residents, and about 1/5 of them work in the city's refinery. This factory, which supplies more than 90% of Berlin's oil, is currently facing a serious crisis. After the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the German government temporarily took over the factory and seized the shares held by the Russian oil company in it, so the Schwedt refinery no longer imports oil from Russia. Now, many employees of the plant and Mayor Hoppe of Schwedt are worried that if the factory does not resume importing oil from Russia, many people will lose their jobs.
The challenges faced by the Schwedt refinery and its attitude towards purchasing Russian oil represent the situation and position of many German companies. According to scholar Maier of the German Council on Foreign Relations, voices from different companies calling for the use of cheap Russian oil and gas are increasing, as well as local politicians who support such measures.
For decades, besides providing rich and cheap energy to Germany, Russian investment projects have also driven local economic development. However, sanctions imposed by Berlin on Moscow have caused many Germans to face difficulties in their lives. Lubmin, a port city in northern Germany, is one of the places where the "Nord Stream" gas pipeline passes. "Due to the sanctions by the United States and the EU, the 'Nord Stream' pipeline has stopped operating," said Felix, who runs a restaurant in Lubmin to the special correspondent of the Global Times in Germany. There were once multiple projects involving Russian investors in the surrounding area of Lubmin, such as shipyards and Russian food import companies. Local residents worked in these enterprises, and local restaurants and hotels also benefited from these investments. But many projects and factories have been shut down, significantly reducing residents' income.
German retired engineer Janik previously worked at a factory in Leipzig that produced electronic connectors. He told the special correspondent of the Global Times in Germany that Russian companies had given them many orders, but since the 2014 Crimean incident, especially after the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the factory was under official control and almost completely cut off from exports to Russia. Niles-Simons, a mechanical engineering company located in Chemnitz in western Saxony, has a manager named Klaus who told the reporter that the Russian market was one of the main markets for their products. After Western sanctions against Russia, the company's business was greatly affected, and the management had to adjust its direction.
"Pro-Russian" and "Fear of Russia" are simultaneously played out in different regions
According to a report by Deutsche Presse-Agentur on July 20, a survey conducted by the British YouGov showed that about half of German voters agree with the federal government's assessment that "Russia poses a threat to Germany." However, different groups have completely different views on this. Supporters of the ruling party Union (CDU/CSU), Social Democrats, and Green Party believe that Russia poses a "quite large" or "very large" threat, while most supporters of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the left-wing party Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance believe that Russia does not pose any threat.
In fact, the diverse attitudes of Germans towards Russia are not only due to their different political leanings, but also because of the regions they live in. People in eastern Germany clearly show more "pro-Russian" tendencies. When the special correspondent of the Global Times in Germany interviewed in cities like Berlin and Dresden, they could always see various Russian or Soviet elements on the streets, such as monuments to the Soviet Red Army. Previously, the German-Chinese Radio reported that as of 2021, there were still more than 460 streets named after Russian elements in various parts of Germany.
Janik told the special correspondent of the Global Times in Germany that after World War II, the German Democratic Republic (East Germany) included Russian language classes as a compulsory subject from the fifth grade, and schools held Russian language olympiads, encouraging local students to exchange letters with Russian students. Russian literature also entered East German schools, such as "How the Steel Was Tempered" by Ostrovsky. "Many of us got to know Russian peers through pen friends, student exchanges, and travel. Such experiences influence our views on Russia," Janik said. Until now, he still keeps in touch with some Russian friends.
Vanessa, a 12-year-old middle school student living in Berlin, can recite Russian culture and specialties such as ballet and caviar. She told the special correspondent of the Global Times in Germany that after the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, schools across Germany organized demonstrations supporting Ukraine, and many families even hung Ukrainian flags on their windows, which made her confused for a time, because her impression of Russia was not that of a war starter.
Although the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia conflict has affected the overall attitude of Germans towards Russia, the "preference" of the people in eastern Germany for Russia was fully reflected in the European Parliament elections in June last year. In this election, the AfD, considered pro-Russian, and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance performed well in the eastern region.
However, in western Germany, people's fear of Russia is increasing. Many Germans worry that Russia might attack EU countries. "Germans' view of Russia is very complicated; some people's fear of Russia has historical roots, and the Ukraine-Russia conflict has intensified this fear," said Kam, a Russian affairs scholar in Berlin, to the special correspondent of the Global Times in Germany. Historically, Germans' impressions of Russia have always been between fear and fascination. He believes that the image of Russia in Germany has been idealized and also distorted, and behind this reflects changes in the hard power and soft power of the Russian state.
Historically, the relationship between Germany and Russia has been very complex. According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the magazine The American Interest, for 300 years, the relationship between Germany and Russia has always been the center of European politics. The two countries have fought each other twice in the 20th century; Germany ruled over Tsarist Russia. In the 19th century, as many as half of the Tsarist governors and senior officers had German blood, and the Soviet Union even allowed and supported the unification of East and West Germany. After the unification of Germany and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the relationship between Germany and Russia developed positively in various aspects and many fields until the Crimea incident in 2014.
Some reasons why some Germans fear Russia are closely related to the policy shift of the German government. The German Council on Foreign Relations previously wrote that for decades, Germany's foreign policy towards Russia has focused on reconciliation and easing tensions, but the Ukraine-Russia conflict led to a shocking change in the relationship between the two countries. After that, Germany continuously increased military and financial support for Ukraine. The current German government is also increasing defense spending to respond to the "threat" from Russia.
The deterioration of German-Russian relations has hit a particular group especially hard: the German expatriates returning from Russia. According to a report on the website of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, according to different calculation methods, there are currently about 2.5 million to 5 million people in Germany belonging to this group. They are descendants of German immigrants who settled in Russia since the second half of the 18th century. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, about 2.5 million German expatriates returned to their "true homeland" Germany.
For a long time, as a social group, German expatriates in Russia were almost unnoticed in Germany, until the Ukraine-Russia conflict, "anti-Russian sentiment" led to them being subjected to online abuse. Saphina, who now lives in Stuttgart, and her family moved to Germany from Saint Petersburg, Russia, in the late 1990s. She was not concerned about politics before. When the Ukraine-Russia conflict broke out, she was still in university, and at that time, many teachers and classmates began to avoid her. Saphina introduced to the special correspondent of the Global Times in Germany that in her relatives' group, some relatives were hostile to Russia, while others were proud of Russia, and the two factions thus fell out.
"If the conflict ends, Western companies may return to Russia"
Russians' resentment towards Germany seems to be rising as well. According to a recent survey by the independent Russian polling organization Levada Center, when asked about the "most unfriendly country," 55% of Russian respondents mentioned Germany first. Since May 2020, this proportion has increased by 40 percentage points. This means that Germany has surpassed the United States, which had been the top for 20 years, and become Russia's "biggest enemy."
However, for many Germans and Russians, the reality of Russia or Germany is not as "fearful" as the survey results suggest. Florian, a businessman from Hamburg, told the special correspondent of the Global Times in Germany about his trip to Russia last year. He said that in October last year, he first entered Russia with an e-visa and found that the trip was even more convenient than before the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. On the "Sapsan" train heading to St. Petersburg, some Russians used fluent German to chat with Florian, praising German companies and scenery. Florian noticed that the logo of Siemens was visible on this train.
In a Russian electrical appliance chain store, Florian found that there were quite a few German products on display, such as refrigerators, vacuum cleaners from Bosch and Miele, and some products were even cheaper than in Germany. The shelves of Russian supermarkets were also filled with German products, including beer, gummy bears, chocolate, shampoo, etc. Florian asked his local Russian partners and German branch contacts and learned that Russia has not completely banned German goods, and only electronics priced over 750 euros are prohibited from import. According to an assessment by the German magazine Der Spiegel, although in different forms, about 2,000 to 2,500 German companies are still operating in Russia.
As the possibility of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia increases, more German companies are hoping to re-enter the Russian market. The German magazine Wirtschaftswoche quoted Russian consultant Galand saying that since Trump took office, she has received more inquiries from German companies, especially those still operating in Russia, asking whether the situation is expected to improve.
The German newspaper Münchner Merkur also revealed that if the Ukraine-Russia conflict ends, Western companies may return to Russia. Alexander Astrov, a Russian expert at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Research, told Deutsche Presse-Agentur that this market with about 140 million people is too attractive for foreign companies to leave permanently.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7532328311352230434/
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