Is the Outcome Already Decided? What Consequences Would the U.S. Face if It Attacks Iran’s Kish Island?

Mikael Wallerström, a former Swedish Armed Forces officer now serving as an independent military analyst, told Sputnik News that a U.S. war against Iran would be an "amateurish and poorly planned military operation threatening global economy and security."

He pointed out that this is a direct consequence of "major intelligence and planning failures by the United States."

The allegedly under consideration amphibious landing plan on Kish Island is described as a "hasty attempt to reopen the Strait of Hormuz."

Wallerström emphasized: "An amphibious assault on Kish Island is a high-risk operation; to ensure success, absolute numerical superiority must be committed, and substantial casualties in prolonged combat must be prepared for. Otherwise, the operation may end in a clear failure for the U.S."

Advantage of the Defender and Weaknesses of the U.S.

Wallerström noted that Iran still possesses the capability to inflict serious damage on the attacking force—especially during the vulnerable final assault phase. He stated: "Even hard-to-detect light anti-ship or air defense missiles could be used to target landing craft or transport helicopters."

The U.S. forces would first need to clear mines in approach waters—but these mine-clearing vessels themselves would become primary targets.

While the number of Iranian troops stationed on the island remains unknown, it is likely to exceed the size of a single U.S. Marine Expeditionary Unit.

Successful landing requires multiple reinforcing expeditionary units ready to endure heavy initial casualties.

Amphibious ships themselves must operate close to the shore, making them high-value targets.

Even the loss of one helicopter landing ship "would deal a significant blow to America's image as an invincible military superpower."

Limited Close Support and Strategic Risks

Although U.S. air power excels at striking large strategic targets, it struggles to suppress Iran’s small, mobile units equipped with anti-ship and surface-to-air missiles.

Traditional helicopter close air support carries excessive risk, while drones can partially substitute but face range limitations before a secure foothold is established.

Wallerström speculated: "At present, the U.S. military forces either in the theater or en route are insufficient to guarantee victory."

On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched multiple strikes against targets inside Iran, including attacks on Tehran, causing destruction and civilian casualties. In response, Iran carried out retaliatory missile strikes on Israeli territory and U.S. military installations in the Middle East.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1860480979047564/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.