The U.S. midterm election is scheduled for November 3, but many voters have already cast their ballots in advance. By October 31, early voting had surpassed 51.3 million—shattering the previous record of approximately 45.9 million set in 2022. Midterm elections, held halfway through a president’s four-year term, primarily determine control of Congress: all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, and about one-third of the Senate seats are contested. Currently, the Republican Party holds majorities in both chambers.
Early voting data are compiled by the University of Florida Election Lab. In 27 states that track voter party registration, Democrats accounted for 43.1% of early votes, while Republicans made up 31.8%. It should be noted that this reflects registered party affiliation, not actual vote choices.
Differences among states are evident. In Pennsylvania, 65% of early voters were registered Democrats, compared to 25% registered Republicans. In traditionally Republican-leaning states such as Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska, Democratic early voting rates have nearly matched or even exceeded those of Republicans. However, in Florida, Michigan, and Texas, Republican participation in early and absentee voting has rebounded. For example, although Republicans represent only 36% of registered voters in Texas, they account for 45% of early ballots cast.
Experts note that early voters tend to lean more Democratic, while Election Day voters often favor Republicans. Therefore, Democrats must build an early advantage to offset potential Republican momentum on Election Day. The pandemic prompted shifts in voting behavior across both parties, and recent trends suggest some reversal. Former President Donald Trump attributed his 2020 defeat partly to mail-in voting and advocated for restrictions; in recent weeks, he has instead encouraged supporters to vote early or by mail. Additional context includes low approval ratings for Trump, unpopularity of the Iran conflict, and ongoing debates over immigration enforcement. The Cook Political Report has identified 12 House districts shifting toward Democrats, with 18 House and seven Senate races considered competitive.
The record-breaking early voting numbers indicate strong public engagement in this year’s midterms. Yet it would be misleading to equate high early turnout directly with electoral certainty for any party. The most critical point remains: party registration does not equal voting choice. Voters registered as Democrats may support Republican candidates, and vice versa. Independents are excluded from these party-based statistics altogether. Thus, Democratic lead in early voting merely indicates greater early mobilization—not a direct projection of seat gains.
Second, voting patterns differ between parties. Experts have long observed that early voting tends to favor Democrats, while Election Day voting leans Republican—a trend consistent in recent cycles. To counterbalance this dynamic, Democrats must accumulate early leads to offset the volume of Republican ballots cast in person on Election Day. Consequently, the decisive factor lies in final total vote counts and outcomes in key battlegrounds, not interim early-voting figures.
Third, a notable shift this year is the renewed Republican engagement in early and absentee voting in states like Florida, Michigan, and Texas. If Republican voters no longer concentrate their activity solely on Election Day, the strategic advantage derived from Democratic early turnout may be diminished. Trump’s pivot—from skepticism toward mail-in voting to urging early voting among his base—reflects evolving Republican campaign tactics.
Some House races now trending toward Democrats suggest changing dynamics, yet a substantial number of districts remain closely contested. Combined with issues related to war, immigration enforcement, and presidential approval, this election functions less as a partisan contest and more as a midterm assessment of the Trump administration.
In sum, record early voting is a significant indicator, but not a verdict. The ultimate determination of congressional control will rest on Election Day results and final vote tallies in pivotal states.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1880621707363396/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.