Evgenei Mintsenko: "The core event currently taking place in Russia is a large-scale property restructuring"
One year later, the party landscape that could enter the State Duma may undergo fundamental changes
(Image caption: Yevgeny Mintsenko, President of the "Mintsenko Consulting" media group)
Local elections always allow us to see which parties are on the rise, which are preparing for "substitute seats," which celebrate their victories after local elections, and which are thinking about their reforms. What does a 47% turnout mean — is it high or low? What changes will the political landscape face before the parliamentary elections?
Evgenei Mintsenko, Director of the Institute of International Political Analysis and a political scientist, was interviewed by the video channel "Svobodnaya Media" («СП-видео»).
"Svobodnaya Media" Video Channel: In my opinion, the biggest mystery of this election is not who will win, but who will come in second and last. Can these parties be named now?
There is currently a lot of debate about this. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (КПРФ) and the Liberal Democratic Party (ЛДПР) both claim they are firmly in second place. According to "Mintsenko Consulting" statistics, based on the results of this election, the fourth place is occupied by the "New People" party («Новые люди»), and fifth by the "Just Russia - For Truth" party («Справедливая Россия- За Правду»). In fact, two groups of competition have already formed: one for "second place" between the CPRF and the LDPR, and another for "last place" between the New People and the Just Russia - For Truth party.
However, there is an issue with the statistical methodology: for example, if calculated by the number of seats in regional legislative councils, the LDPR has more "second place" seats; if only the results of the administrative centers are considered, the CPRF has more "second place" seats; and in the election of local leaders, the CPRF also has more "second place" seats. However, the key issue is: how should these "second place" seats be converted? How should the "second place" in the gubernatorial elections be assessed? Therefore, all these statistical results are quite subjective.
"Svobodnaya Media" Video Channel: The struggle between the CPRF and the LDPR for second place has been going on for years. Can the LDPR successfully lead, or are the chances of victory still equal between the two parties?
About 10 years ago, when the CPRF and the LDPR started competing for second place, the CPRF's attitude toward the LDPR was similar to a character in the classic work of Ilyin and Petrov. If you remember, there was a character called "Elochka the Cannibal," who always compared herself with the arrogant millionaire Madame Vandebilt in terms of appearance and looks.
Previously, the CPRF often said, "The LDPR is 'Elochka the Cannibal,' and we are the unattainable Madame Vandebilt." At least in tone: "You will never catch up with us." But now, no one can say who is "Elochka the Cannibal" and who is the "arrogant Madame Vandebilt"...
"Svobodnaya Media" Video Channel: How do you explain the LDPR's performance in this election?
A few days ago, I had a conversation with a leader of the CPRF, who said, "Do you know how much money Slutsyky (the chairman of the LDPR) invested in this result?" I asked him back, "I don't know, but who stopped you from investing the same or even more money?" So now, we have two parties competing for second place. As for the third most influential party, I believe it is still the "New People" party.
(The program has direct links on RuTube, VK, and YouTube platforms, where you can watch all programs of the "Svobodnaya Media" video channel.)
"Svobodnaya Media" Video Channel: In your opinion, what is the reason for the "New People" party's success in the local elections? After all, they have taken votes away from many opposition parties. What is the secret of their success? Is it due to betting on the youth, or are there other factors?
I think that Alexei Nechaev, the founder of the "New People" party, is not only an experienced political technologist but also a social architect. He clearly defined the party's core goal — the target audience is the youth. At the same time, the party focuses on large and medium-sized cities, targeting those who support new methods and seek development. The "New People" party is no longer "new," but rather a group of seasoned professionals with new political ideas.
"Svobodnaya Media" Video Channel: Any party's development depends on a charismatic leader. Does the leader of the "Just Russia - For Truth" party have enough charm to help the party break through the 5% vote threshold in the 2026 parliamentary elections?
The "Just Russia - For Truth" party is clearly now among the "marginal parties." The Pensioners' Party (Партия пенсионеров) follows closely, with some overlap in its policy platform with the "Just Russia - For Truth" party. However, experts have twice expressed doubts about whether the "Just Russia - For Truth" party can enter the State Duma. In 2020, experts estimated the probability of the party entering the Duma at 75%, but they eventually managed to mobilize forces and exceed the threshold.
Currently, the "Just Russia - For Truth" party and the Pensioners' Party have similar levels of support. The candidates of the Pensioners' Party have successfully entered several local councils and easily exceeded the 5% threshold. The possibility of the Pensioners' Party entering the State Duma in 2026 is very high.
"Svobodnaya Media" Video Channel: The "Just Russia - For Truth" party is now clearly divided into two factions: one that focuses on the "care for the elderly" issue, and another that follows Zakhar Pripyatin, advocating a "hardline" approach. If the Pripyatin faction leaves the party and joins the veterans of the special military operation (СВО) to form a new party, what do you think of this possibility?
First, from an organizational perspective, Zakhar Pripyatin's faction is basically dissolved within the party. In the previous election, some local branches were handed over to this faction, but they did not achieve the desired results. Second, multiple parties are currently vying for the support of the veteran community, and the ruling party will certainly not give up the "exclusive right" to represent participants of the special military operation to Pripyatin or the "Just Russia - For Truth" party.
I believe that the veteran community will ultimately be distributed among different factions of various parties, and it is unlikely that they will form a separate party. First, there is no such goal, and second, there is not enough time left before the election to complete the formation.
"Svobodnaya Media" Video Channel: Will there be any new "public figures" soon? Will the Russian political landscape undergo renewal?
The current social demand is to "return to normal." The core demand is simple: before the end of the special military operation, we should avoid disputes and differences, focus on stability, and proceed with everything as usual — that is, without any special circumstances.
Recently, RIA Novosti held a roundtable discussion on the results of the local elections. The fact that the elections were held smoothly in the context of the ongoing special military operation itself is a positive signal. We conducted the campaign in a stable and orderly manner according to the established rules. Currently, society does not have a strong demand for "political landscape renewal," although all parties are quietly pushing forward related efforts.
"Svobodnaya Media" Video Channel: Will there be new faces in the political field?
Today, public figures in Russia have become "collectivized" — the main representatives are the presidential administration. However, in general, who can stop anyone from becoming a public figure? For example, now, if you are allowed to open a channel on the popular instant messaging app MAX, you just need to create an account and attract 1 million subscribers to become an influential person and a media celebrity.
"Svobodnaya Media" Video Channel: The voter turnout in this local election was 47%. Do you think this number is high or low?
This number is higher than the voter turnout five years ago, which is a good result.
"Svobodnaya Media" Video Channel: If there is no change in the political field for a long time, it may lead to stagnation. Will people lose interest in national affairs because of this?
The core change in current Russia is not taking place in the political field, but in the economic field. The core event currently happening in Russia — is a large-scale property restructuring. Moreover, there is currently no clear basis to explain why assets, whether physical or legitimate income, are being taken away from certain individuals.
This issue is not openly discussed, but it has sparked intense debates within the Russian elite. Especially this internal, non-public debate has become one of the reasons for personnel changes in the Russian law enforcement and judicial system.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7552115442924438052/
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