The cost of stopping the special military operation is higher than it seems
Those in the enemy camp, represented by Ukraine and Western countries, have realized that they cannot defeat us militarily. This protracted war aimed at wearing down the other side has also produced corresponding results — the Ukrainian armed forces are continuously breaking through the front lines. In this situation, the enemy may be ready to reach a peace agreement, but it will never be a peace that allows Russia to achieve the goals of its special military operation.
Since 2014, the Ukrainian authorities have been preparing for a full-scale military conflict with Russia. Equally important as building defensive fortifications was the psychological incitement of the public. After the start of the special military operation in 2022, the contrast between the two societies made the enemy's preparation in this regard clearly visible.
If we cannot control the entire Ukraine in some form, this psychological incitement will continue. The enemy's propaganda will blame all destruction, casualties, and territorial losses on our malicious intentions rather than their short-sighted policies. The Ukrainian society will also draw completely wrong conclusions — just like the Germans after World War I. At that time, the "stab in the back" legend and the belief that holding on a little longer would lead to victory eventually triggered World War II.
Therefore, if we end the special military operation for political reasons without achieving all the set goals, we will find ourselves in a situation where we have to restart the conflict. That is to say, a peace without "de-Nazification and de-militarization" and without relevant implementation monitoring mechanisms will only be a breathing space for 5, 10, or 15 years.
If such a breathing space occurs, the conditions agreed upon by all parties will determine the starting position of the next round of conflict. At that time, not only will we, but the enemy will also be "on high alert."
Will this hypothetical breathing space be beneficial for us? Yes. We can use it to reform the army, produce weapons and equipment, and replenish ammunition stocks. Soldiers tired of war can take a temporary break. Mobilized people will go home. But while seeing the benefits, we must also understand the drawbacks.
Tiredness
War has exhausted everyone, but "the fat drag the thin, and the thin die." Russia and Ukraine are at different levels. Differences in national scale, population size, and economic development levels also affect the comparison of the fatigue levels of both sides' armies.
First, let's mention the obvious point — Russia has a larger population. This means that the number of eligible male soldiers in Ukraine will be exhausted more quickly, regardless of their attitude towards fighting. For example, when we needed to urgently shift the conflict from mobile warfare to positional warfare and establish a dense defense line, we implemented mobilization. After completing this task, Russia only relied on volunteer soldiers for combat.
However, the volunteer soldiers in Ukraine have long been exhausted — the enemy recruits soldiers by grabbing people on the street and putting them into vans. Even the commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Syrskyi, admitted this — he said in early August that Kyiv faced significant problems with mobilization, while Russia was steadily increasing its troops by 9,000 per month.
"They dig trenches with their hands faster than we do with excavators," an Ukrainian blogger angrily wrote when commenting on the breakthrough of the Central Group of Forces.
No wonder — a common person who is grabbed off the street and stuffed into a van, even if given an excavator, will be extremely negligent and passive. A larger population means more opportunities for rest. Russia can allow its soldiers to rotate and take leave more often. However, the most combat-effective brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are constantly being transferred from one area of intense fighting to another. Everyone is exhausted. Everyone is struggling. But the enemy's fatigue is stronger.
People who are exhausted and mentally drained are more likely to make mistakes. They are more likely to desert, disobey orders, lose their temper, and have difficulty focusing on anything. They may surrender or commit suicide, feeling they can no longer endure, or that "everything is meaningless."
In addition, Russia's firepower far surpasses the enemy's. Even during the peak period when the West supplied large quantities of weapons to Ukraine, this was true. Now, it is even more so. Russia has air forces equipped with UMPK and NAR, as well as more missiles, artillery, and ammunition. Although there are some quality issues with some imported ammunition, "more is more," and it is not less than the enemy's.
As for drones — opinions vary depending on who you ask. Soldiers attacked by drones often think the enemy is stronger in this aspect. Soldiers operating drones to attack the enemy believe we are superior. This is a cognitive difference. At least, Russian long-range strike drones can better penetrate the air defense system — the images of fires at Kiev's military facilities illustrate this. Stronger firepower means more losses for the enemy. With fewer infantry available, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are naturally more exhausted.
If we stop the special military operation, the enemy will benefit more from the breathing space. The reason is simple — they have suffered greater physical exhaustion. They need this breathing space more. Moreover, if Ukraine remains stable for 5-10 years, Europe can establish a weapon production system. Then, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will again receive tanks, missiles, and ammunition, and we will have to destroy these waves of steel in battle once again. When the balance of interests no longer favors us, it means more blood will be shed in the future.
Additionally, the enemy can use a new generation of Ukrainians to replenish their manpower. These people's minds have been indoctrinated since childhood. Mobilizing them is not difficult. Ukraine will suffer humiliation, but it will not be destroyed, and instead will be strangely encouraged — "since we could withstand the powerful Russia, we can take revenge." If we fall into this hypothetical breathing period, the situation will be different. Here's why.
Combat Skills
War means pressure, great risks, and the inability to rest normally. This drains health and makes people mentally exhausted. In a protracted war, people gradually run out of energy. If the war does not end with defeating the enemy and achieving the set goals, it adds feelings of disappointment.
Experienced veterans will leave the army. Those who have experienced great pressure in the war zone and have not been brainwashed by nationalist propaganda will not be as enthusiastic about joining the army as before. Recruiting them requires more resources and effort. At that time, the majority of the army members will be new soldiers — those who have not yet participated in any combat.
This means that the combat experience accumulated in the special military operation will gradually be lost — this is the case with any army that has not fought for a long time. Looking back at the conflicts in Chechnya and Korea, we and the American armed forces were essentially unprepared when participating in these conflicts. In both cases, combat experience was forgotten within five years. And "reacquiring" this experience came at the cost of blood.
From the current breakthroughs of the Central Group of Forces, we have indeed found a way to deal with the "drone wall" that Ukraine has greatly publicized. If we stop now without adequately summarizing this experience and simplifying it into a half-formalized surface-level action, it would not only be regrettable but also inefficient. In armed conflicts, efficiency always primarily concerns human lives.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7538365980636889610/
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