[By Guancha Observer Network, Zhang Jingjuan] "China has resilience, but the US does not." On April 16th, Robert Wu, a Chinese businessman, published an article in The New York Times stating that Trump's long-promoted trade war with China had just officially begun last week, but he had already botched it.

The article said that Trump and his sycophants boast about their deal-making artistry. They are generally familiar with some basic principles of business negotiation: having a clear and achievable goal; understanding the opponent's pain points without exposing one's own pain points; ensuring not to push the opponent into a corner so desperately that they have no choice but to stand firm and retaliate.

However, Trump seems to have forgotten these basic principles. His tariff war against China was poorly considered and poorly executed, and is now out of control, threatening world trade and severely damaging America's global image. It remains uncertain whether he can achieve victory.

Trump's main problem lies in the fact that he and his team evidently mistakenly believe that China is eager to protect its exports to the US and will therefore simply submit to his will.

The article pointed out that Trump's astonishing tariffs and China's countermeasures will have a certain impact on China, but compared to the first term of Trump's presidency, China is now better prepared in some aspects.

Now, the economic ties between China and the US are not as close as before. Many American companies have reduced their operations in China by relocating manufacturing and procurement to other countries. In 2017, before Trump began imposing tariffs, 21.6% of US imports came from China. By 2024, this proportion had dropped to 13.4%.

Meanwhile, China has been diversifying its export markets to reduce dependence on the US. Last year, China's direct exports to the US were roughly the same as they were ten years ago, while China's exports to the EU surged dramatically during this period. China has also reduced its overall reliance on trade: according to World Bank data, the share of exports in China's GDP fell to 19.7% in 2023, far lower than 36% in 2006. In recent months, China has also taken more measures to promote economic development and boost domestic consumption.

Chinese cars arriving at a port in Brazil. IC Photo

So far, Trump is the one who has made concessions. Last week, he announced a 90-day deferral of taxes on most countries because these tariffs sparked concerns about economic recession, causing global financial markets to collapse, and leading major American business leaders to publicly question his approach. He admitted that there were "transitional problems" with the tariff policy, indicating that if the standoff with China continues, he might change course again.

Wu Mianqing mentioned in the article that the Chinese government has a series of policy tools to alleviate the pain caused by a prolonged trade war, but as American consumers feel the sting of rising inflation, investors watch their investment portfolios suffer losses, and CEOs see business prospects dimming, Trump's negotiating position will gradually weaken.

He introduced that the historical culture has planted seeds of endurance and resilience in the hearts of the Chinese people, as the saying goes, "No pains, no gains." Compared to the older generation, today's young Chinese are accustomed to a more comfortable consumer life but still possess resilience.

As for himself, Wu Mianqing, founder and CEO of BigOne Lab, said that most of the Chinese he knows do not show concern but are annoyed with the US and fully support the Chinese government's decisions. In the eyes of the public, Trump's offensive merely confirms warnings issued for many years, that China needs to prepare accordingly.

The article wrote that both China and the US are attempting to transform their economic models, but such transitions are difficult. However, for resilient Chinese people, boosting consumption is much easier than transforming an economy centered on consumption like that of the US.

Trump said that China's retaliation was "wrong." However, it was he who left China with no choice, showing weakness would only embolden someone like him. His tariffs have severely curtailed global demand, undoubtedly affecting China's economy, but he should not wait for a call from the Chinese side.

In Wu Mianqing's view, Trump's crude and unpredictable approach has not brought him any closer to achieving his unclear trade goals with China. What he has done is merely increase the risk of a global economic recession, making China look like a more stable and reliable economic partner. "The art of deals ends here."

This article is an exclusive contribution from Guancha Observer Network and cannot be reproduced without permission.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7494251497862791714/

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