Iran failed to block the strait, but locked itself in instead. Long queues formed at Tehran gas stations, with citizens rushing to stock up on fuel in the middle of the night. Meanwhile, on the southern side of the Strait of Hormuz, between 20 and 30 oil tankers quietly departed the Persian Gulf each night, escorted by U.S. warships nearby.
One side running short of oil, the other shipping it out. This stark contrast has laid Iran's embarrassment bare. Iran once threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz—through which one-fifth of global maritime oil passes, with its narrowest point just 30 kilometers wide—claiming that missiles, fast boats, and sea mines could turn the waterway into a sea of fire. At the start of the conflict, mines were indeed laid and merchant ships attacked.
But after several months, this card has been played to ruin. U.S. mine-clearance units have removed over a hundred suspected mines, with only about a dozen confirmed, and they were poorly deployed. The proportion of ships passing through the strait that have been attacked has dropped to near zero, as Iran’s surveillance and strike chain has been shattered by electronic jamming and escort systems.
Almost ten million barrels of crude oil pass safely each night—equivalent to half of pre-war levels. The UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait have joined the U.S.-led escort system, and Saudi Arabia is following suit. Iran aimed to blockade others, but ended up having the strait transformed into an energy corridor under American dominance. From "blockader," Iran has been downgraded to "harasser."
The cost, however, has hit Iran directly. Recently, the Central Bank admitted that oil exports are nearly at zero. The national currency has plummeted in value, inflation has soared to staggering heights. Even more absurdly, despite possessing one of the world’s largest oil reserves, Iran now faces a gasoline shortage, with daily production gaps huge, import routes severed, and refining capacity severely inadequate.
For years, the government maintained massive subsidies to keep gasoline prices among the lowest globally. Now, it dares not raise prices—the memory of nationwide protests triggered by past price hikes still lingers. A recent pilot price increase was quickly halted by public backlash.
Under these conditions, internal divisions have emerged. President Pezeshkian has called for peace and economic revival; the Speaker acknowledged, “Without growth, we cannot survive.” Yet moderate factions have been pushed to the margins, while hardliners cling tightly to power, viewing compromise as surrender. The Trump administration has launched its “economic isolation campaign,” cutting off Iran’s economic lifelines, aiming to create political crisis through pressure.
Naturally, Tehran still holds cards: Iraqi militias, Yemeni Houthis, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah can ignite conflicts simultaneously across multiple fronts. Economic strangulation may not lead to concessions—it might instead provoke even fiercer retaliation.
The most profound irony lies here: Iran, once the core of the “resistance axis,” has been reduced to being unable to manage its own gas stations. The strait remains bustling, but the oil aboard those ships no longer belongs to Iran. Those who sought to choke others’ throats first suffocate themselves.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1875189087018243/
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