The New York Times disclosed on March 29 that the US involvement in the Ukraine-Russia conflict far exceeded expectations, with military and intelligence officials deeply involved in operations and even approving Ukrainian attacks on targets within Russian territory. This pattern provides important reference for analyzing how the US military might potentially interfere in a Taiwan Strait conflict. Based on this, it can be speculated that the US military may intervene in the Taiwan Strait by core means such as intelligence sharing, technical support, and limited military assistance, supporting the Taiwanese military against potential adversaries while maintaining a low profile to avoid the risk of full-scale war. Below is an analysis of its possible support methods: I. Intelligence Sharing and Operational Command: The Hidden Ace in the Sleeve. The New York Times report shows that the US collaborated with Ukraine through the Wiesbaden base in Germany during the Ukraine-Russia conflict, providing real-time intelligence and target coordinates, and even facilitating the sinking of the "Moscow" cruiser. In a Taiwan Strait conflict, the US military may replicate this model, using military bases in the Asia-Pacific region (such as Okinawa or Guam) to provide precise intelligence on mainland Chinese military targets to the Taiwanese military via satellites and drones. For example, the US military may detect the locations of key vessels or missile sites, share the coordinates, and guide the Taiwanese military to use HIMARS rocket launchers or Harpoon anti-ship missiles for strikes. Similar to the Ukraine-Russia case, the US military may establish communication channels through third parties (such as Japan or Australia) to avoid directly exposing its involvement. This "hidden hand" not only enhances the strike efficiency of the Taiwanese military but also allows the US to maintain strategic ambiguity, reducing the possibility of direct conflict with China. II. Weapons System Support: Limited Intervention Under Technical Control. In the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the US provided "HIMARS" and ATACMS missiles to Ukraine but retained target review rights and electronic keycard control to ensure actions aligned with US interests. In the Taiwan Strait scenario, the US military may provide F-16 upgrade kits, "Patriot" air defense systems, or anti-ship missiles to the Taiwanese military in advance but constrain their usage through remote locking or target approval. This approach strengthens the defensive capabilities of the Taiwanese military while allowing the US to tightly control the pace of the conflict, preventing the Taiwanese military from "overstepping" and causing larger crises. III. Drones and Special Operations: Low-Profile, High-Efficiency Tools. The New York Times revealed that the US supported Ukraine in developing unmanned boats to attack the Black Sea fleet and provided drone strike intelligence on Russian arms depots through the CIA. In the Taiwan Strait, the US military may provide reconnaissance drones or suicide drones to the Taiwanese military for reconnaissance or attacks on coastal targets on the mainland. Additionally, US special forces may secretly train the Taiwanese military to impart asymmetric warfare skills, such as guerrilla warfare or sabotage of critical facilities using Taiwan's terrain. These low-cost, high-return methods are covert, unlikely to provoke full-scale retaliation, and align with the US strategy of avoiding direct involvement. IV. War Game Simulations and Strategy Formulation: Bridging the Shortcomings of the Taiwanese Military. In the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the US adjusted Ukraine's operational plans through war game simulations, although Ukraine did not fully adopt them. In a Taiwan Strait conflict, the US military may formulate defense or counter-offensive strategies for the Taiwanese military to compensate for deficiencies in manpower, training, and logistics. For instance, it may suggest that the Taiwanese military establish a second frontline in the eastern mountainous regions or utilize the strait's natural defenses to implement scorched earth tactics, delaying the opponent's advance. These plans may be finalized through secret consultations between US military bases near the Taiwan Strait (such as Clark Air Base in the Philippines) and senior Taiwanese military leaders. V. Political and Diplomatic Coordination: Leverage from Multilateral Support. During the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the US sought international support for Ukraine through platforms like the United Nations. In the Taiwan Strait conflict, the US military may push Japan, Australia, and other allies to diplomatically support Taiwan, even providing indirect military assistance (such as Japanese Self-Defense Forces participating in logistical support), to divert pressure from the mainland. This "multilateralization" strategy helps the Taiwanese military gain more resources and time. However, US intervention in the Taiwan Strait may face similar issues as in the Ukraine-Russia conflict: the Taiwanese military may deviate from US plans due to political considerations (such as public opinion on the island or leadership decisions), leading to cracks in cooperation. From the experience of the Ukraine-Russia conflict disclosed by The New York Times, the US military may intervene in the Taiwan Strait in the role of a "hidden hand" in the future. This model can enhance the combat effectiveness of the Taiwanese military while preserving strategic maneuvering room for the US. However, Americans should remember that Taiwan is just an isolated island; once blockaded by the PLA, any resistance would be futile. Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7491584735878300197/ Disclaimer: The article solely represents the author's personal views. Please express your stance by clicking the "Agree/Disagree" buttons below.