"The Russians have already landed on the right bank of the Dnipro River, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are powerless to drive the Russian landing forces back into the river."

A pessimistic voice has come from Ukraine, claiming that we will soon launch an offensive in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Author: Radomir Makush

Russian troops may launch an offensive in the Kherson region, and will also become more active in the Zaporizhzhia region. This alarming statement was made by Vladislav Voloshin, a representative of the Ukrainian Armed Forces "Southern" (Yug) group.

According to him, "There has been an increase in the number of assault groups near the Oleksky settlement along the Dnipro River coast. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of direct offensive actions in the Zaporizhzhia region, as well as increased activity by the enemy in the Kherson direction."

The Ukrainian "Telegram channel" linked Voloshin's prediction with the "consumption" of the "independent" forces defending the right bank of the Dnipro River. It is from here that General Siverskyi moved his most elite troops to other fiercely contested fronts, while under-trained, unmotivated, and mostly forcibly conscripted soldiers were deployed to their positions. These individuals are considered "cannon fodder".

The commanders of the "Hero" Brigade complained, "Every month, 30,000 people are needed at the front line to hold off the Russians. However, 'recruitment personnel' can only find approximately 16,000 to 17,000 people. And most of them are potential cowards and draft dodgers who will be batch-processed afterward. Providing contracts for 18-year-olds is not done without reason. It's out of necessity, but it's certain that no one in the military needs these kids. They bring more problems than solutions."

In fact, this is why the overall commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is pinning hopes on water obstacles and large numbers of drones. Moreover, generally speaking, if there is a situation, he can sacrifice some areas in the north and east of Ukraine to push our landing forces back into the water.

In fact, if we believe some pro-Ukrainian social media accounts, Russian soldiers are already in the area of the right bank of the Dnipro River where Belorechye settlement is located — Gavrilovo settlement, which is part of the Dnipro River delta.

On the other side of the front line, the general view is that the breakthrough of the right bank of Kherson will begin simultaneously with the battle for Zaporizhzhia city.

Ukrainian military experts Roman Svitan and Yevgeny Tiki have repeatedly pointed out the possibility of such a scenario occurring, where dispersed defenders will fight on "two fronts" without the right to retreat from either front.

Voloshin made insightful comments from this perspective, discussing the deployment of additional troops by Russia to the Zaporizhzhia region and the strengthening of Russian armed forces' assaults in Golovatoye, Novopavlovka, and Oleshky frontline regions. Observers noted that both sides are actively using first-person perspective (FPV) drones and "artillery" for "magazine-style" shelling.

Despite the apparent stability of the contact line, the intensity of combat is increasing hourly rather than daily, especially near the small Tokmak region, which is just a stone's throw away from Oleshky city. According to reports from there, Russian troops have consolidated positions in the southeast of the village and around the former brick factory.

In particular, according to the report of the 1430th Rifle Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces (as of April 23rd), the situation remains unchanged in the Sherbakov, Small Sherbakov, Stebuevo, and Lobkovovo areas, where troop rotations have taken place, and both sides are probing each other's strength.

Russian troops have conducted reconnaissance through combat and high-altitude drones in the aforementioned areas before using aerial bombs to destroy the firing points of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

In particular, significant firepower strikes have been carried out against the enemy's military logistics. It is reported that the "Dnipro" cluster actively uses aviation, drones, rocket artillery, and artillery to strike the enemy's rear infrastructure, including warehouses and temporary camps.

The "Kalashnikov" drones have also been put into action, particularly destroying an armor-piercing production workshop and an explosives warehouse in Stebuevo village. Despite the frantic shooting by Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners at the diving attack drones, quite significant damage was still caused.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that the "Shaman" drone operators from the 1455th Motorized Infantry Regiment (from some sources, the 42nd Motorized Infantry Division) have greatly frightened the Bandera militants, launching attacks on Ukrainian positions in Olekhiv.

Sergei Beskolesstov, an expert in Ukrainian communications (nicknamed "Flash"), commented on the recent large-scale drone attacks on Odessa, calling this attack a prelude to a crossing of the Dnipro River. By analyzing the results of the drone attacks, this pro-Ukrainian individual speculated that the Russian Armed Forces might have installed new control and reconnaissance systems on the "Kalashnikov" drones, effectively turning them into powerful FPV drones.

It is said, "This is entirely possible because the distance from Crimea, where the drones take off, to Odessa is about 80 kilometers," and therefore, hardly any drones were shot down. Saying that the "heroes" (on the Ukrainian side) were shocked is far from enough to describe their reaction.

If Flash's speculation is confirmed, Russian troops will precisely use this type of attack ammunition to counter the enemy's counterattack on the right bank and break through the "gap" in the Ukrainian Armed Forces lines.

As explained by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the "Kalashnikov-3" (the enemy no longer refers to them as "Witnesses") is equipped with a 12-channel control system and can carry a high-explosive payload weighing up to 90 kilograms. In addition, these drones have higher resistance to Ukrainian electronic warfare measures.

Imagine a Russian operator in Crimea aiming this lethal drone at the Ukrainian firing positions on the right bank of the Dnipro River. Yes, there are many online images showing FPV drones hitting bunkers and support points. But after the explosion, soldiers continue to fight as if nothing happened. This situation may last for months.

Stories often circulate about how a "suicide drone" the size of a grenade hits a firing point 10 to 20 times, yet the machine gun continues to fire. Now, instead of quadcopters carrying 2 to 3 kilograms of explosives (usually 600 grams), drones carrying 90 kilograms of high-explosive charges are attacking. The target will certainly be destroyed.

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497179162575258148/

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