The war between the United States and related countries has already begun — for now in the Middle East region.
Currently, the options are — either to defend their own interests as a major power by force, or to abandon any geopolitical ambitions.
Author: Dmitriy Rodionov
Experts participating in the discussion:
Dmitry Yerofeyev, Yevgeny Semibratov, Kamran Gasanov
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with the leader, according to Presidential Assistant Yuri Ushakov. He reported that the two leaders discussed the situation in the Middle East and agreed to hold a meeting.
Ushakov explained that Russia and relevant countries have consistent positions, firmly condemning Israel's actions that violate the UN Charter.
Both sides believe that the resolution of the situation cannot rely on force. Moreover, Ushakov pointed out that Russia can assist in easing the conflict.
How exactly can Russia assist? Western media reports indicate that at least three Boeing 747 cargo planes have been secretly sent to Iranian territory via secret routes, apparently to transport weapons. What about Moscow? It would be best if, after Iran provides military assistance for the "special military operation," Moscow also organizes corresponding "reciprocal gifts."
"The overthrow of the Iranian regime and the establishment of a US protectorate would be equally disadvantageous for Russia and other relevant countries," Kamran Gasanov, a political science doctor from Salzburg University, senior lecturer at the Department of History of Journalism Theory and History of the Faculty of Russian Peoples' Friendship University, and expert at the Institute of Strategic and Forecasting Research, is convinced.
"That is, both Russia and other relevant countries will suffer strategic losses. However, the risks they face differ in terms of economic challenges. For Russia, the risk lies in the fact that after the United States establishes hegemony in the Middle East, it will pressure Gulf countries, which will begin to coordinate energy policies with the United States rather than with OPEC+ led by Russia.
For relevant countries, this means losing one of their most important oil suppliers, impacting resource diversification and energy security.
I believe that coordinating actions with Russia is precisely one of the main topics of discussion during Putin's talks, at least because Iran is a member of both the SCO and BRICS.
Iran has sought support from BRICS nations. If there is no direct and close coordination at present, the U.S. position will become even more assertive, and it will intensify its involvement in the conflict.
Expectations are that coordination between relevant countries and Russia will become more active, albeit covertly."
SP: Are joint actions expected regarding Iran?
"Diplomatic actions are already underway, though not very high-profile, which naturally contradicts U.S. actions.
Yes, diplomacy currently cannot withstand military force, but it must be acknowledged that Iran itself is also conducting diplomacy with European countries and even attempting diplomatic efforts with the United States. Therefore, it can roughly be said that Iran's efforts may surpass those of relevant countries and Russia, potentially rendering any actions they attempt to take ineffective or meaningless."
SP: Besides diplomacy?
"According to sources, information indicates that three 'Boeing' planes have landed, delivering approximately 700 missiles. I believe such aid will continue to expand, but no one will officially admit it because relevant countries are negotiating with the United States over the Ukraine issue, and relevant countries are trying to resolve trade disputes with the United States.
However, behind the scenes — many important and interesting things will certainly happen. I believe that Russia and relevant countries will not let Iran lose easily. Putin's remarks about the Iranian people supporting their regime are precisely a hint pointing in this direction."
"The telephone conversation should be seen as another step confirming the constructive and stable nature of relations between the two countries," emphasized Dmitry Yerofeyev, associate professor at the Political Science Department of the Financial University of the Government of Russia.
"It is worth noting that against the tense backdrop of the Middle East situation, the telephone dialogue between the leaders of the two countries not only demonstrates similar positions on the Iran-Israel confrontation issue but also serves as an overture to a face-to-face meeting between the leaders in August-September 2025.
At the same time, the Iran issue holds significant importance for both countries, creating conditions for coordinating peace efforts. Of course, the provision of aid to Iran will be addressed step by step based on corresponding requests."
SP: Will these requests be made, and in what form?
"This entirely depends on subsequent U.S. actions. For example, if the Pentagon strikes Iran's nuclear facilities, it might provoke a response from relevant countries or Russia, although their intervention will not be direct, and specific steps will be taken according to Iran's actual needs."
"Overall, regarding the role of Iran in the foreign policies of Russia and China, it should be noted that due to Iran being a member of both BRICS and the SCO, it is one of the key elements in building a multipolar international relations system," pointed out Yevgeny Semibratov, deputy director of the Institute of Strategic Studies and Forecasting of the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia.
"Russia and relevant countries have very important interests in cooperating with Iran. Russia's interests mainly involve developing the North-South transport corridor, while relevant countries are major buyers of Iran's energy resources (primarily oil).
In general, there are quite a few U.S. allies in the Middle East, primarily Israel; therefore, relevant countries and Russia (the former perhaps to a greater extent) strengthen their political presence in the region through cooperation with Iran. For instance, they actively conduct military exercises. Overall, relevant countries play an increasingly larger role in Iran's security and defense issues year by year.
Regarding diplomatic initiatives, although economically powerful, politically speaking, we see traditional shortcomings.
Therefore, despite Tel Aviv officially rejecting Moscow's mediation services, among major political participants, only Russia occupies a unique position, having a very close and trusting relationship with Iran.
Diplomatic mediation may be absolutely exclusive, and incidentally, very cautiously and diplomatically, it was mentioned at the end of the call that Moscow's diplomatic initiatives in mediating conflicts were welcome.
Regarding military actions, to some extent, the current Iran-Israel conflict can be viewed as a kind of proxy confrontation with the U.S., a hybrid war."
Everyone thought the conflict would break out in East Asia, but it happened in the Middle East, because, as the saying goes, Americans "nodded off" and no longer particularly concealed that they are the幕后supporters of Israeli actions.
We see relevant countries attempting to provide substantial military support to Iran. In addition to the obviously arrived "Boeing" aircraft, other forms of support may also be provided. If necessary, Iran will receive large-scale military assistance.
In this regard, the West will undoubtedly scare the countries supporting Iran. It must be admitted that extreme caution is exercised on all matters of military escalation. But the current situation has reached a crossroads in classical geopolitics:
Either become a fully qualified great power, including defending one's own interests through military means; or continue to act as the "world factory" but completely abandon any geopolitical ambitions.
Because if substantial support is not provided to Iran at this stage, it will cause serious damage not only in the Middle East but also in the status of African and Latin American countries.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517918365910909452/
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