"Trusted List" vanished overnight, Samsung Xi'an, SK Hynix Wuxi, and Intel Dalian were strangled, with global 40% of NAND suddenly suspended.
Dell and HP have red lights on inventory, while Apple and Tesla turned to Changjiang Memory and Yangtze River Memory for orders.
South Korea applied for a one-year exemption, and China's chip share surged from 8% to 16%.
The event accounts for only a third, the remaining two-thirds depend on logic.
The US kicked factories out of the list, aiming to cut off equipment imports, but triggered two counter-chains: one is "time for space" by South Korean manufacturers, and the other is "orders for iteration" by Chinese manufacturers.
Equipment supply cut → capacity vacuum → terminal panic → switching to domestic, a four-step loop completed within two weeks.
Changjiang Memory's 232-layer Xtacking 4.0, and Yangtze River Memory's 18.5nm DDR5, have technology nodes approaching international mainstream, lacking only mass production scale.
Deeper down, the sanctions are like a high-pressure test, compressing the originally fragmented supply chain into a "domestic funnel".
The top of the funnel is equipment, materials, EDA, still in others' hands; the middle is manufacturing, accelerating up the slope; the bottom is brand customers, who have already voted with orders.
As long as the middle of the funnel continues to expand production, the top will eventually be sucked in.
The mystery left for the outside world is: will South Korean manufacturers move, or not?
Moving means giving up the cost advantage of the Chinese market; not moving means completing equipment replacement within a year.
Readers may consider: one year later, which country's light will shine on the production lines in Wuxi and Xi'an?
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1842384634916875/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.