【Military Second Dimension】Author: Lile

After successfully raiding Venezuela and capturing Maduro, Trump once thought he had won. But when U.S. oil companies were unwilling to return to Venezuela and risked a third asset seizure by investing 10 billion dollars, this facade was exposed. The U.S. "Military Watch" website admitted that the Trump administration's raid on Venezuela and its deterrence of Colombia would create an opportunity for the J-10CE to win a 1.6 billion dollar order from Colombia.

▲This sentence could not be said by any U.S. media two days ago

Colombia currently has very poor fighter jet capabilities. In fact, there had been plans to upgrade in 2018. However, due to different considerations between the president and the military, as well as the huge costs, the situation became stagnant (although it announced the purchase of F-16, it eventually gave up). This April, facing the aggressive Trump administration, Colombia finally reached a consensus internally and prepared to purchase the Saab Gripen from Sweden, rather than the more politically charged Rafale and F-16. The Trump administration was very dissatisfied and threatened to stop supplying F-404 engines to Sweden (which is also the power system for the Gripen). After more than half a year of negotiations, a difficult agreement was finally reached, and a 3.36 billion dollar contract for 17 Gripen jets was signed with Sweden.

▲The U.S. hopes Colombia purchases F-16

However, with the successful U.S. raid on Venezuela, the Trump administration's ambitions grew, making Colombia a key target for deterrence. The Gripen equipped with U.S.-made power systems faced the risk of being seized by the U.S. before delivery. Even if it successfully entered service, its basic performance and electronic equipment features would be thoroughly known by the U.S. If the two sides clashed, it would likely reproduce the scene where the Venezuelan air defense system was completely suppressed by the EA-18G electronic warfare aircraft without response. Under such circumstances, the J-10CE, which had been considered but abandoned due to compatibility issues with old systems and concerns over U.S. attitudes, suddenly appeared very attractive.

▲The EA-18G electronic warfare aircraft is regarded as the number one contributor to the success of the operation

On May 12, just after the India-Pakistan air battle, Colombian President Petro flew to Beijing, received high-level treatment, and became the eighth Latin American country to join the "Belt and Road Initiative." Due to the shocking performance of the J-10CE shooting down the Rafale, Colombia made a tentative contact with AVIC to learn about the basic data. However, after the news returned to Colombia, the Air Force believed that they had never used Chinese fighters before, adjusting the existing training of European and American personnel and the basic layout would be time-consuming and laborious. More importantly, once "Chinese fighters are stationed in the U.S. backyard," it would surely anger the U.S., contradicting the goal of purchasing fighters to safeguard national defense. Therefore, Colombia did not further engage with the J-10CE afterward.

▲Colombia did not further engage with the J-10CE at that time

As the situation developed to this point, "the U.S. getting angry" has become a reality, regardless of whether the J-10CE is purchased or not. System incompatibility is indeed an issue, and while the J-10CE performs excellently, it also requires more resources and time to form combat capability. Considering that even Pakistan, which has long used Chinese fighters, needed almost a year (starting in summer 2023) to master the fighter jets, it would take Colombia at least two years to effectively operate the J-10CE. For Venezuela, which urgently needs combat capability, this is quite lengthy.

▲The J-10CE stationed at the front-line airport in Pakistan

But compared to the possibility of the Gripen being sanctioned by the U.S., or even facing unacceptable costs, the problems of the J-10CE are relatively minor. Whether to go ahead and pay a high price for the Gripen, betting that the U.S. will not act, or to fully seek China's support and wait until the J-10CE becomes operational, is up to Colombia's own choice. From December 2024 onwards, multiple examples have shown that the domestic side will not casually help out, and only rush to ask for help at the last minute, which does not work in China.

▲The positioning of the Gripen is indeed quite awkward

To put it bluntly, although the J-10CE is on display, it is not something that anyone can buy. The "Military Watch" website is worried that the J-10CE might fly into Latin America, and the domestic side also needs to consider the possibility of the J-10CE being used as a token of loyalty or even being forcefully taken away after delivery. For Colombia to obtain the J-10CE and gain support against the U.S., it needs to make great efforts to prove its position.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7594417978679018024/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.