Local time on April 9, Trump raised the tariff on China to 125%. Meanwhile, China has also increased its tariff on the US by another 50%, bringing the total tariff on the US to 84%. Under these circumstances, all parties are discussing: Is there a possibility of a hot war between China and the US?

In recent days, the U.S. military's movements have indeed been quite obvious:

1. On one hand, Trump has announced raising the defense budget to a historic $1 trillion;

2. On the other hand, the Japanese government has already notified Okinawa to permanently deploy large drones at the Kadena Air Base in Okinawa Prefecture. This move is currently being opposed by Okinawan residents.

In addition, not long ago, Defense Secretary Hackett went to the Philippines with the intention of turning the Philippines into the frontline of direct confrontation between China and the U.S. So, do all these really indicate that there must be a hot war between China and the U.S.? For this, on April 9 local time, Defense Secretary Hackett made his position clear.

In his speech, Hackett mentioned: "On one hand, the U.S. believes that China does indeed have global military ambitions, and is showcasing its global military ambitions through resources and land in the Western Hemisphere; on the other hand, he clearly stated that the U.S. does not seek to engage in armed conflict with China, and that a war between China and the U.S. can be completely avoided."

At first glance, Hackett's words seem somewhat contradictory. If they believe we indeed have global military ambitions, why do they "back down" so much and state they will not fight China? In fact, this is related to the current predicament of the U.S. military.

Firstly, to counter China, $1 trillion is far from enough for the U.S. Currently, the total military budget for the U.S. in 2025 is approximately $892 billion. Even if it reaches $1 trillion, the increase is only 12%. These additional funds are simply insufficient to support Trump's plan. Take the sixth-generation fighter F-47 as an example, which was heavily promoted by Trump just the other day. According to the former U.S. Air Force secretary, the cost of a single F-47 is around $300 million, not even including the astronomical research and development costs. Besides, the maintenance costs of several U.S. aircraft carriers are causing headaches for the Pentagon. Therefore, to counter China, even $1 trillion is not enough, let alone adding half more.

Secondly, the U.S. strategic contraction in the Middle East is not yet complete, and its investment in Europe remains substantial. Last March, at Trump's order, the U.S. conducted airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen. Within just a few days, the U.S. spent $1 billion, and the latest news is that the Houthis are still continuously attacking U.S. aircraft carriers. It's lamentable that the world's leading military power spends so much money but is ineffective against the "small sandal army." To protect the aircraft carriers, the U.S. has no choice but to use missiles worth tens of thousands of dollars to counter the simple drones costing hundreds of dollars from the Houthis. To reduce global military spending, the U.S. has already revealed plans to withdraw 10,000 troops from Europe. If they couldn't hold out any longer, they wouldn't do this.

In fact, anyone with eyes can see that Trump has set a bottom line for this trade war: temporarily avoiding a hot war with China. But the key issue is that once he sets this bottom line, it also means he doesn't have the strength or space for ultimate pressure on China. China won't fail to notice their military difficulties. What do you think about this matter? Welcome to discuss.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7491486888969978431/

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